Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Random Analytica: Jakarta (Indonesia) COVID-19 cases by day

Jakarta is emerging as another COVID-19 pandemic hotspot.

As at 31st March 2020, there have been 747 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city of Jakarta, Indonesia, including 83-deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 11.11%.

200401_Chart_JakartaCasesByDay

** Special thanks to Anne Barker (ABC) for her assistance and Pak Agus Wibowo for his data tweets.

Key Dates:

6th March: Indonesia restricts visitors from Iran, Italy & South Korea.
23rd March: Via the ABC. Coronavirus COVID-19 death rate in Indonesia is the highest in the world. Experts say it’s because reported case numbers are too low.
31st March: Indonesia implements a ban on foreign visitors.

Random Analytica: Sunshine Coast (AUS) COVID-19 cases by day

Here is a look at the Sunshine Coast cases by day since the first known case which presented on the 25th February 2020. Of note, the first Australian case presented exactly one month previously!

As at 12.00pm on the 30th March 2020, there have been 71 confirmed cases of COVID-19 on the Sunshine Coast, Queensland, Australia, including 1-death. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 1.41%.

200330_Chart_SCCasesByDay

Key Dates:

13th – 15th March: The Mooloolaba Triathlon is run. At least one competitor tested positive for COVID-19 the following week.
14th – 19th March: Sails Restaurant, Noosa cluster.
16th March: Queensland Health reports a death of a 77-year old woman on the Sunshine Coast.
24th March: Queensland Health consolidates the COVID-19 data into a single table rather than report details of each case.
29th March: The Chief Health Officer of Queensland issues the Home Confinement Direction which directs citizens to stay at home unless undertaking essential activities (i.e. shopping or seeking medical attention).
30th March: Queensland schools to be student-free but will remain open for the children of essential workers.

Sunshine Coast Hospital and Health Service map

SunshineCoast

Random Analytica: NSW COVID-19 cases by age (to 25th March 2020)

NSW COVID-19 cases hit 1,029 today. I was interested enough to have a quick look into the NSW Health’s excellent web-page. Although they supply a lot of data and charts I couldn’t see a ‘bee hive’ graphic or the age pyramid. Given NSW has just topped 1,000 cases I thought it might be worthwhile doing the chart on their behalf.

My big take-outs from looking at the chart is the uniformity of cases from ages 20 – 29 to 60 – 69 for both men and women. That’s your core working age cohort. That’s when most people travel for work and pleasure. Looks like this disease will predominately target workers in its first wave.

Second takeout. There are just two children aged 0 -9 yet eleven people aged 90 or more. Children obviously less likely to present with COVID-19. I’ll let better minds than mine figure that one out.

Chart below: NSW Age Pyramid of NSW COVID-19 cases to the 25th March 2020 (n = 1,029).

200325_Chart_NSWxAge

Source: NSW Health

200325_Screenshot_NSWHealth

Random Analytica: Australian Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by calendar week

The daily COVID-19 numbers are escalating quickly. If you think the daily numbers are worrisome take a step back and consider the weekly new case numbers.

In the past week the new cases increased almost five-fold.

Chart below: Australian cases by week. My chart time period commences from Monday 20th January 2020 with the first confirmed COVID-19 presentation on the 25th January.

200324_Table_AUSStatesWkNo

Random Analytica: Australian Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by day (to the end March 2020)

Here is a look at the Australian cases by day since the first known case which presented on the 25th January 2020.

As at 6.30am on the 31st March 2020, there have been 4,359 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia, including 18-deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 0.41%.

200331_Chart_AUSCasesByDay_FINAL

Via the Australian Department of Health. Coronavirus (COVID-19) health alert. Notes with a table detailing cases by location:

As at 6:30am on 31 March 2020, there have been 4,359 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 266 new cases since 6:30am yesterday.

Of the 4,359 confirmed cases in Australia, 18 have died from COVID-19. More than 230,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.

200331_Table_AUSStatesCaseNo_FINAL

* Note that under National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System reporting requirements, cases are reported based on their Australian jurisdiction of residence rather than where they were detected. For example, a case reported previously in the NT in a NSW resident is counted in the national figures as a NSW case.

** Includes Diamond Princess repatriation cases: QLD (3), SA (1), VIC (4), WA (2, including 1 death)

23. Mefloquine Dispatches: Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee, 28th February 2020

In my correspondence to the Australian Senate I requested the following:

  • You would like to know the status of the comprehensive health assessments announced by the minister on 15 March 2019;
  • You would like all the personnel involved in Operation BARITONE to receive a comprehensive health assessment and you would like to receive a response from the minister to this request;
  • You would like the committee to investigate the status of the Mefloquine help line;
  • You would like to know why DVA have not accepted your Mefloquine exposure given the letter you received from Defence.

This is what I received.

200228_iLetter_AUSSenate_Pg1of2200228_iLetter_AUSSenate_Pg2of2

We are making some progress but there is still more mountains to climb which is the reason why I’ll be fighting hard for a Royal Commission into Veteran Suicides.

 

If you or someone you know needs help, please phone Lifeline on 131 114, Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800, Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636 or Open Arms on 1800 011 046.

Random Analytica: Early days of the Wuhan Coronavirus

I’m in the process of building a timeline infographic that tracks the progress of the still to be named Wuhan Coronavirus. It’s early days and I’ve a bit to research but here is a preview of where we are at with the virus in the early hours of the 21st January 2020.

200121_Infographic_WuhanCoronaVirus

Sources:

FluTrackers.com. 2019-nCov Confirmed Case List by Country and Province – Total = 222 (as of 8am ET)

22. Mefloquine Dispatches: Mil Mi-24, 27th March 1997

Cabinet papers are a source that I have been meaning to research.

Using 1998/99 cabinet papers Andrew Probyn from the Australian Broadcasting Commission has put together this piece on the fate of the Russian gunships owned by the Sandline mercenaries that we might have faced if we had of been deployed on the 22nd March 1997. Secrets of how Russian attack helicopters came to Australia revealed 20 years later. Extract:

The $50 million deal, signed in January 1997 to the horror of the then Howard government, would have seen foreign mercenaries flown in to destroy the Bougainville rebellion, using second-hand military equipment.

But two months later, on March 27, 1997, Australia agreed to a request from the PNG government to accept custody of the gear bought by PNG from Sandline.

“The PNG government was concerned about the delivery of the equipment to PNG in the uncertain political circumstance that prevailed at the time,” then defence minister John Moore wrote in his confidential cabinet submission.

At the time of the controversial purchase the PNG armed forces had a helicopter fleet consisting of five Bell UH-1 Iroquois of which only one was serviceable.

It also reaffirms an important date for me. I remember being stood down after three-days, which would have been the 24th March 1997. The PNG Prime Minister (Chan) had left parliament due to massive protests to his rule during those three days. The Australian Government then agreed to take the Russian helicopters (2x Mil Mi-24 and 2x Mi-8 transports) on the 27th March 1997 as the PNG Parliament began to sort out the mess.

There was also a cache of other fixed wing aircraft that Sandline had purchased and the PNG government kept but were never used in combat.

I now wonder what happened to those planes?

Mil Mi-24 -2

Picture: The Drive

 

If you or someone you know needs help, please phone Lifeline on 131 114, Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800, Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636 or Open Arms on 1800 011 046.

Random Analytica: Samoa Measles Outbreak (2019)

The Samoan Government declared a State of Emergency on the 15th November 2019 and has subsequently extended that period until the 29th December. Via the Samoan Government. National Measles Response and Recovery Appeal 6 December 2019. Excerpt:

The Samoa Ministry of Health declared a national measles outbreak on 16 October 2019. There is widespread community transmission, with the outbreak strain the same as that causing the current outbreak in New Zealand. The Government of Samoa declared a state of emergency on 15 November 2019. Under the new Orders of the State of Emergency the Government has made vaccination mandatory for priority groups. Samoa activated its National Emergency Operations Centre (NEOC) on 15 November which meets daily to coordinate the emergency response and provides updates on the situation. Under the national order, various restrictions have been implemented including limitations on inter-island travel for all individuals below 19 years of age; temporary closure of schools, and strongly advising children not to attend public gatherings or attending any medical facility, unless they require medical attention. Immunised pregnant women are further restricted from attending their place of employment (public and private sector).

Infographic updated with data to 24th December 2019 via @samoagovt.

191224_Infographic_SamoaMeasles

21. Mefloquine Dispatches: Mindfulness, 5th December 2019

We sit across from each other. A small coffee table and my phone separate us. My psychologist will be helping me make this difficult call. I have spent the best part of a year working towards this point. I’m emotionally attached to this phone-call.

Today we are using a combination of mindfulness and a safe-place to ensure I stay calm. We reinforce my safe space with Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EMDR) therapy.

I make the call.

The conversation takes approximately 10-minutes. For me I am relating an incident that occurred almost 23-years ago. Yet it feels like it was just months previously. That’s just the amnesia. I go through the details of the incident. I get an acknowledgement and a contact person to reach out to.

We finalise the call and move over to the coffee machine so I can regather.

The emotion and the adrenaline have started to kick in. My jaw tightens. As does my chest. My voice wavers. My hands start to shake. My psychologist picks up on this straight away. He wants to bring me back down immediately.

We return to our chairs.

“I’ve got this” I say.

I close my eyes. I control my breathing which has a ragged edge to it. I imagine my safe-place. I focus entirely on my breathing.

I take an initial deep breath.

I focus on my safe-place.

A second deep breath.

Safe-place.

A third deeper breath.

I open my eyes.

I look at my psychologist. I grin. My jaw has relaxed. My shaking has disappeared. My breathing has normalised.

It took less than a minute. Rather than kick-off I am calm. We are both impressed by my progress. Just weeks before I would have been raging.

In the coming months there will be more difficult phone calls. Difficult situations. Chance encounters which I cannot control.

Practicing mindfulness is not only helping me cope with old trauma and new memories it is allowing me to operate in the real world.

One breath at a time.

 

If you or someone you know needs help, please phone Lifeline on 131 114, Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800, Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636 or Open Arms on 1800 011 046.