Random Analytica

Charts, Infographics & Analytics. No Spinning the Data. No Juking the Stats

Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo 4 April – 22 May 2018

The World Health Organisation updated its Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo Disease Outbreak News on Wednesday with numbers to Tuesday. The DR Congo Ministry of Health updated its numbers today with data to Wednesday presenting some new numbers including the invalidation of eight previously reported community deaths which occurred pre-outbreak.

Ian Mackay has broken down the numbers for us in an easy tweet. They are:

#Ebola numbers for 22MAY2018 from DRC MOH…

  • total: 58 (+0 from last report)
  • confirmed: 30 (+2)
  • suspect: 14 (+5)
  • probable: 14 (-7)
  • fatal: 22 (38%; -5)
  • Wangata: 10 (+3 suspect; +2 deaths)
  • Iboko: 24 (+6 suspect)
  • Bikoro: 24 (+3 suspect)

Those numbers in a infographic which details the cases/fatalities by territory (rather than Health Zone). Iboko Health Zone lies within Bikoro Territory:

180524_Infographic_EbolaInDRC

The World Health Organisation data via its latest Disease Outbreak News. Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo. Excerpt:

On 8 May 2018, the Ministry of Health (MoH) of the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD). This is the ninth outbreak of Ebola virus disease over the last four decades in the country, with the most recent outbreak occurring in May 2017.

Since the last Disease Outbreak News on 17 May 2018, an additional fourteen cases with four deaths have been reported. On 21 May 2018, eight new suspected cases were reported, including six cases in Iboko Health Zone and two cases in Wangata Health Zone. On 20 May, seven cases (reported previously) in Iboko Health Zone have been confirmed. Recently available information has enabled the classification of some cases to be updated.

As of 21 May 2018, a cumulative total of 58 Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases, including 27 deaths (case fatality rate = 47%), have been reported from three health zones in Equateur Province. The total includes 28 confirmed, 21 probable and 9 suspected cases from the three health zones: Bikoro (n=29; ten confirmed and 19 probable), Iboko (n=22; fourteen confirmed, two probable and six suspected cases) and Wangata (n=7; four confirmed and three suspected case). Of the four confirmed cases in Wangata, two have an epidemiological link with a probable case in Bikoro from April 2018. As of 21 May, over 600 contacts have been identified and are being followed-up and monitored field investigations are ongoing to determine the index case. Three health care workers were among the 58 cases reported.

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Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo 4 April – 15 May 2018

The World Health Organisation has updated its Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo Disease Outbreak News which include Epidemic Curve chart and a map illustrating the Health Zones impacted.

Currently there are 40-cases in Bikoro Territory (2-confirmed, 20-probable & 18-suspect) and I’ve assumed that all 23 reported fatalities have occurred in that territory based on the most recent reporting although this has not been confirmed by the WHO in this update.

Note: If all the 23 fatalities have occurred in Bikoro Territory that puts the CFR at 57.5%. However, if all the fatalities have occurred in the smaller Bikoro Health Zone the CFR then spikes to 65.7%. There have also been four cases reported in Wangata Territory including two brothers who travelled to Bikoro for a wedding. This places those four within the environs of Mbandaka, a city of 1.2 to 1.5-million.

WHO are also reporting three Health Care Workers among the 44 infected without providing any further information.

All the cases to date have occurred in Equateur Province which is represented in the infographic below:

180515_Infographic_EbolaInDRC

The World Health Organisation data via Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo. Excerpt:

Since the last Disease Outbreak News on 14 May 2018, an additional five cases, including one laboratory-confirmed case from the city of Mbandaka, Wangata health zone, have been notified by the country’s Ministry of Health. Wangata health zone is one of three health zones in Mbandaka City, which has a population of approximately 1.5 million people. Recently available information has enabled the classification of some cases to be updated1.

From 4 April through 15 May 2018, a cumulative total of 44 Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases including 23 deaths (CFR = 52%) have been reported from three health zones in Equateur Province. The total includes three confirmed, 20 probable and 21 suspected cases from the three health zones, Bikoro (n=35; two confirmed, 18 probable and 15 suspected cases), Iboko (n=5; two probable and three suspect cases) and Wangata (n=4; one confirmed, and three suspect cases). Of the four cases in Wangata, two have an epidemiological link with a probable case in Bikoro from April 2018. As of 15 May, 527 contacts have been identified and are being followed-up and monitored. Three health care workers were among the 44 cases reported. Figure 1 shows the date of notification (date of illness onset not yet available for most cases) for 27 cases with available data from 5 May through 15 May 2018. Figure 2 shows the location of cases by health zone.

Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo 4 April – 13 May 2018

The World Health Organization has updated its Disease Outbreak News (DON) on the Ebola outbreak which has data updated to the 13th May 2018. I missed the initial DON but the most recent news is both good and bad. Good in that WHO has immediately ramped up efforts to stem this latest outbreak including deploying the Ebola vaccine but also bad because the two probable cases in the Wangata territory are on the outskirts of a large population centre (Mbandaka – population 1.2-million).

The DON breaks down the cases by Health Zones. Currently those cases listed in Bikoro and Ikoko Health Zones lie within Bikoro Territory while the Wangata Territory encompasses the city of Mbandaka and surrounds. The Case Fatality Rate for Bikoro Territory is 51.3%. All the cases so far have occurred in Equateur Province. Infographic below:

180513_Infographic_EbolaInDRC

The data for this infographic was supplied by the World Health Organization via Disease Outbreak News 14 May 2018 – Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo. Excerpt:

Since the publication of the first Disease Outbreak News on the Ebola outbreak in Equateur province, Democratic Republic of the Congo on 10 May 2018, an additional seven suspected cases have been notified by the country’s Ministry of Health. Importantly, since the last update, cases have been reviewed and reclassified, and some discarded.

From 4 April through 13 May 2018, a total of 39 Ebola virus disease cases have been reported, including 19 deaths (case fatality rate = 49%) and three health care workers. Cases were reported from the Bikoro health zone (n=29; two confirmed, 20 probable and 7 suspected cases), Iboko health zone (n=8; three probable and five suspected cases) and Wangata health zone (n=2; two probable cases). To date, 393 contacts have been identified and are being followed-up. Wangata health zone is adjacent to the provincial port city of Mbandaka (population 1.2 million). Response teams on the ground are in the process of verifying information on reported cases. Case numbers will be revised as further information becomes available.

Random Analytica: Centrelink Call Wait Times 2006 – 2017

It seems almost heretical now but just a decade ago you could call Centrelink and get your phone answered in less than 2 ½-minutes (*most of the time). In fact, data collected by Centrelink in 2006-2007 showed that the average wait time of callers was just 1-minute and 50-seconds and that 71.6% of all calls were answered in the first 150-seconds.

Then something happened in 2008 to the way Centrelink reported its data.

Centrelink felt that it was so good at answering your calls within a few minutes it abandoned its Average Speed of Answer (ASA) reporting metric and amended its Call Answered from 150-second to 180-seconds.

For those too young to remember back in 2007 the iPhone only came on the scene in June 2007, so most people would call a government department via a landline (sometimes sneakily from work) or go to visit the relevant Government department and talk to a real person in their lunch-hour or on their day-off, especially if they worked part-time.

How did that work out for Centrelink?

ASA

The funky Calls Answered in 180-seconds metric was abandoned just one year after it was implemented and the Department of Human Services completely abandoned the 150-seconds metric from 2010/11. I suspect when more than 50% of calls don’t get answered within that timeframe you either need to review your service model OR you change your metric.

In the meantime the Average Speed of Answer (ASA) wait time blew-out from 1-minute and 50-seconds in 2007 to 15-minutes and 44-seconds in 2017. That’s an official 8.5x increase!

I’m sceptical about the Department answering a call within 16-minutes.

I had to ring Centrelink today. Everyone I talked too who has to deal with the Department told me to ring early but be prepared to wait a long-time.

I rang early (8.05am) and I was prepared to wait putting aside contract work for the express purpose of updating my details.

My call was answered an hour later (plenty of time to do the above chart)…

Phone

Random Analytica: Sandpapergate – The Fallout

The fallout from #SandpaperGate continues for Cricket Australia, Steve Smith, David Warner and Cameron Bancroft. Just days after Bancroft used sandpaper to scuff the ball at Cape Town the three cricketers who have been identified as the main contributors in the controversy have been given long playing bans, while Smith and Warner have both been cut from their respective IPL teams. The employment income alone can now be calculated in the millions.

Cricket Australia and the individual players are also becoming sponsorship persona non grata.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation has written a piece outlining the main details of the ongoing sponsorship fallout. Magellan tears up sponsorship deal with Cricket Australia over ball-tampering scandal. Excerpt:

Wealth-management company Magellan has terminated its three-year sponsorship agreement with Cricket Australia in response to the ball-tampering scandal.

The naming rights sponsorship of the men’s national cricket team’s domestic series, estimated by the Australian Financial Review to be worth $20 million, only started ahead of last summer’s Ashes Test series and was supposed to run for two more seasons.

Magellan’s co-founder and chief executive Hamish Douglass said the ball-tampering in South Africa was “so inconsistent with our values that we are left with no option but to terminate our ongoing partnership with Cricket Australia”.

In my finance life I have had the opportunity to meet Hamish and although I don’t know him well he is a much respected figure in the Wealth Management community and he would be horrified by the behaviour of the Australia Cricketers. I suspect when he returns to our shores to discuss his companies investments he will be answering more cricket questions than anything else.

Then there are the TV rights. ESPN have detailed the ongoing fallout for James Sutherland including the next five-year media rights deal with Channel 9 which was worth $500 million AUD in 2013 but might be worth a lot less than expected after this week. Sutherland flies home into mounting chaos. Excerpt:

Still more damaging was the revelation that Channel Nine, the prime broadcaster of cricket in Australia for more than 40 years, had signed a new deal to cover the summer of tennis up to and including the high-rating Australian Open. In the wake of the announcement, Sutherland received assurances from the Nine chief executive Hugh Marks that the network was still very much interested in the rights to cricket, but there were several factors to be digested.

Marks has previously made no secret of the fact that he does not see the need for Nine to maintain the umbilical connection to cricket that his predecessors David Gyngell and David Leckie, in particular, maintained either side of the death of Kerry Packer in 2005. There have also been strong indications that Nine does not wish to again pay the AUD 500 million price tag CA slapped on its international summer of cricket in 2013.

Here is an infographic to highlight the sponsorship fallout (updated to Thursday 29th March) with thanks to Michael Janda for the idea.

Sandpapergate_180330

Random Analytica: Introducing the First Chance Average to Cricket

In cricket statistics, a batters average is calculated by the amount of runs they have scored divided by their dismissals (i.e. 1000-runs/20-dismissals = Average of 50). The First Chance Average or FCA is determined by the number of Earned Runs divided by their dismissal OR chances. Chances are discretionary but they must be legitimate, i.e. a dropped catch, a legitimate missed stumping or a dismissal from a no-ball (so hitting a ball through the slips when there are no slippers doesn’t count as a chance). Runs coming after a chance are recorded as First Chance runs and are omitted from FCA calculations.

History

The metric was originally developed by myself (Shane Granger) over the 2013-2014 summer with inputs from two very smart colleagues, Adrian Storen and Daryn Webster using the Earned Run Average metric in baseball as a concept model. At the time it was trying to answer some questions about the batting of both Shane Watson and David Warner.

With David Warner giving up three very big chances during that summer the FCA was going to get a mention on the ABC sport show Offsiders BUT David Warner’s run of chances stopped at Johannesburg and the FCA missed its debut.

The First Chance Average for cricket was discarded… Or was it?

During the 2017-2018 Summer I decided to re-invigorate the First Chance Average by improving the metrics to exclude multiple chances and include volatility which answered the questions about David Warner back in 2014. These simple changes made the metric more robust while changing the graphic to look and feel like a standard average allowing for greater clarity. The new datasets used for the Australian tour of South Africa were also a ten-fold increase on what I developed in 2014 and were able to show a team picture rather than focus on anyone individual.

The Example (Adam Voges)

AdamVoges

Adam Voges is a great example because over his short career he only had two chances but they were significant.

In his debut innings at Roseau against the West Indies Adam scored 130*, thus he didn’t qualify for an average as he did not have a dismissal. However his First Chance Average was 57 as he was dropped. Because he had 57 Earned Runs and 73 First Chance Runs his volatility was a very high 56.2%. As his first score was 130* the difference between Earned Runs and First Chance Runs are split between Green/Red in the chart.

In his second innings Adam was dismissed for 37 without a chance, so his score is in blue. His Standard Average is now 167, (167 runs with one dismissal) while his First Chance Average is now 47 (94 runs with two dismissals). His volatility dropped to 43.7%.

In his third innings Adam was dismissed for 31 without a chance, so his score is in blue. His Standard Average is now 99, (198 runs with two dismissals) while his First Chance Average is now 41.67 (125 runs with three dismissals) His volatility continues to decrease to 36.9%.

By the time Adam finished his short career he had just two chances but the difference between his Standard Average and First Chance Average was reasonably significant. To answer this question I introduced volatility, which is a measurement to see whether a batter First Chance Runs are increasing or decreasing. In the end Adam Voges volatility was decreasing but so was his Standard Average and his last big score was 7 Earned Runs compared to 232 First Chance Runs.

Random Analytica: Australian tour of South Africa – First Chance Average (FCA)

The Australian cricket team are touring South Africa from late February to early April 2018.

For the history of the game a batters average has been calculated on their final score. In 2014 to complement the standard average I developed the First Chance Average (FCA) which looks at what a batters average would look like after they had been dropped OR given a legitimate chance. In the past few weeks I have been improving the metric and putting together my first comprehensive analysis using the Australian touring side of South Africa as a model.

An introduction to the First Chance Average using the test career of Adam Voges can be found here.

Here is a look at the First Chance Averages of the 2018 Australian squad touring South Africa. I’ll be updating the charts as the tour progresses (see UPDATES).

CAMERON BANCROFT180401_CameronBancroft_Final

PRE-TOUR: Cameron Bancroft commenced the tour with a standard average of 25.57 and under a bit of a cloud with Richard Hinds suggesting that Matt Renshaw might have earned a recall. Prior to South Africa his last score was a duck against England (2018) and in the preceeding eight innings he had not recorded a legitimate chance.

DURBAN: Scores of 5 & 53 with no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 38 & 24. Cameron has now had 12 test innings without giving the opposition a single chance. His FCA continues to remain aligned to his standard average.
CAPE TOWN: A 77 in the first innings which hinted at the possibility of a permanent position. The second innings score of 26 was overshadowed by Cameron’s direct involvement in ball tampering. He was subsequently given a nine-month ban by Cricket Australia and flew home before the fourth test at Johannesburg.

JOE BURNS180403_JoeBurns

PRE-TOUR: Joe Burns was parachuted into the team at short notice after the ball tampering scandal in Cape Town for the last test. Prior to the Johannesburg test his last test scores were an uninspiring 1 and 0 against South Africa (Hobart, Dec 2016).

JOHANNESBURG: A jet-lagged first innings score of 4. Got in and then got out for 42 in the second. No chances.

PAT CUMMINS180403_PatCummins

PRE-TOUR: Pat Cummins returns to South Africa (after a long break) with a pretty solid standard average of 27.60 and an FCA of 19.17 (with three chances). Prior to Durban his last score was 24* against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 3 and 26 with no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: A golden duck then 5. No chances
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 4 then a duck. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: A maiden test 50 in the first innings. One in the second. No chances.

PETER HANDSCOMB180403_PeterHandscomb

PRE-TOUR: Peter Handscomb has been on tour but hasn’t had a chance to bat prior to Johannesburg in any of the three previous tests. During the Ashes he got the opportunity to bat three times and his last score was 12 (Adelaide, 2017).

JOHANNESBURG: A golden duck and 24. No chances.

JOSH HAZELWOOD180403_JoshHazelwood

PRE-TOUR: Josh Hazelwood started the tour with 274-runs, a standard average of 11.91 and an FCA of 9.39 (with four chances). At the end of the Ashes he had recorded 17-not outs in 40-innings (42.5%). His last score prior to the tour was 1* against England (Melbourne, 2017).

DURBAN: Scores of 2* & 9* with no chances. With those scores he now has 19 not-outs from 42-innings (45.2%).
PORT ELIZABETH: 10* and then 17 in 17-balls. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 10 & 5. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: Scores of 1* & 9*. No chances.

USMAN KHAWAJA180403_UsmanKhawaja

PRE-TOUR:

Bancroft vs. Renshaw might have been the cricket conversation prior to tour commencing in South Africa but I had a thought that Usman Khawaja might be the batter in trouble.

Usman Khawaja commenced the tour with a healthy standard average of 45.80 but his First Chance Average was a much lower 34.96 after nine-chances. He has scored 1,608 Earned Runs with a volatility of 22.0% which is extremely high. His last score was 171 against England (Sydney, 2018) BUT his 2017 year was very ordinary.

FCA stats for 2017: 129 Earned Runs. Four Chances plus 127 First Chance Runs with a volatility of 49.6%.

One to watch.

DURBAN: Disappointing start with a 14, then 6 in the second innings while reverse sweeping?
PORT ELIZABETH: First innings score of 4 but a tough chance was put down when still on a duck (Earned Runs then = 0). In the second innings Usman grafted out a score of 75 without a chance. Enough done to lock him in for the rest of the tour.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 1 without a chance in both innings. If Usman doesn’t fire at Johannesburg I would find it hard to see how he would tour again with the Australian squad.
JOHANNESBURG: Showed some ticker during the 1st innings reaching 53 then 7 in the second innings.

NATHAN LYON180403_NathanLyon

PRE-TOUR: Nathan commenced the tour with standard average of 11.61 and a FCA of 11.14 after just five chances. His pre-tour volatility is a miserly 2.5% which means he looks after his wicket either as a tailender or as the night watchman which he gets promoted to consistently. Prior to South Africa his last score was 29 against England (Melbourne, 2017).

DURBAN: 1st innings score of 12 after being dropped on two, then a second innings score of two after being dropped on one. Prior to Durban Nathan had not presented a chance to the opposition since he was caught but not given out in Port Elizabeth way back in February 2014.
PORT ELIZABETH: A first innings score of 17 then 5.
CAPE TOWN: Nathan scores 47 in the first innings but was dropped on 32. He then scores a duck in the second innings. Nathan’s new high score is now 47 but his FCA high score remains as 40*.
JOHANNESBURG: A first innings score of 8. Run-out for 9 in the second innings. No chances.

MITCHELL MARSH180403_MitchellMarsh

PRE-TOUR: Mitchell commenced the tour with standard average of 29.24 and no chances, thus no FCA after 39-innings. Prior to South Africa his last score was 101, his second century against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 96 and 6 with one chance in the 1st innings, a tough one while on 42.
PORT ELIZABETH: Sick as a dog Mitchell scored 4 in the first innings and then 45 in the second.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 16. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: Mitchell’s mixed bag tour of South Africa continues. A score of 4 in the 1st innings and a duck in the second.

SHAUN MARSH180403_ShaunMarsh

PRE-TOUR: Shaun commenced the tour averaging 40.87 (standard) and 29.69 (FCA) after nine chances. It should be noted that his Earned Run volatility is a high 25.8% but that has been reducing as he put together some solid scores during 2017. Prior to South Africa his last score was 156 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Shaun commenced the tour with solid scores of 40 & 33 and no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 24 and 1. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 26 and 0. No chances. Hmnn…
JOHANNESBURG: Shaun got a chance on 15 when Quintin De Kock got stung by a bee when he should have been stumping the batsmen! Went on to add just the single run, out for 16. Just seven in the second innings. No chances.

TIM PAINE180403_TimPaine

PRE-TOUR: Tim’s chart should be viewed in two parts with four tests in 2010 then a long break to 2017. He commenced the tour averaging 39.92 (standard) and 30.67 (FCA) after two chances in 2010. His high score of 92 came after two drops (0 & 86) thus his FCA high score is his more recent 57. Prior to South Africa his last score was 38* against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 25 & 14.
PORT ELIZABETH: A decent last partnership knock of 36 in the 1st innings and then 28* in the second.
CAPE TOWN: One of the few highlights of the tour has been Tim Paine’s lower order batting. Scores of 34* and 9* without a chance. His solid batting, keeping and seniority are all factors in Tim being promoted to captain as Steve Smith and David Warner are stood down over the ball tampering incident.
JOHANNESBURG: Tim Paine with a fractured thumb gets 62 after being dropped by Faf de Plessis on 48 in the first innings. 7 in the second innings. Interesting First Chance stat here. Tim Paine has four half-centuries and three chances. If those chances had all been taken he would only have one half-century.

MATT RENSHAW180403_MattRenshaw

PRE-TOUR: Matt Renshaw was finishing up a fantastic domestic season for Queensland and was given the call-up while he was still scoring his unbeaten 81* against Tasmania in the Sheffield Shield final. He didn’t play in the Ashes after being dropped after the Bangladesh tour where he scored 4 and 22 (Chittagong, 2017).
JOHANNESBURG: Unfortunately, his domestic form deserted him in the final test. Scored 8 then 5.  Was dropped by Bavuma on 2 in the second innings. Jet-lag could have been a factor.

STEVE SMITH
180401_SteveSmith_Final

PRE-TOUR: Steve Smith is the real deal. He commenced the tour with an impressive standard average of 63.76 and a FCA of 54.67 (with 19-chances). Prior to South Africa his last score was 83 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 56 and 38 including a tough chance in the 1st innings when he was 47.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 25 and 11. Interestingly his scores since Melbourne without the FCA are in an almost perfect decline, that is 102*; 83, 56, 38, 25 & 11.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 7. No chances. Steve Smith is stood down as the captain during the test over a ball tampering incident. In addition he is given a one-match ban by the ICC and a 12-month ban by Cricket Australia. He returned home before the Johannesburg test.

MITCHELL STARC180326_MitchellStarc

PRE-TOUR: Mitchell Starc is the big hitting bowler who can bat on occassion. He commenced the tour with a standard average of 23.15 and a FCA of 18.78 after 9-chances. Prior to South Africa his last score was 11 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 35 and 7. No chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 8 and 1. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 2 and 7. No chances.

DAVID WARNER180326_DavidWarner

PRE-TOUR: David Warner commenced the tour with impressive averages of 48.78 (standard) and 40.61 (FCA) with 23-chances to-date. He has scored 989 first chance runs (15.9%) which is high but reflective of the openers position he has held for the majority of his test career. Prior to South Africa his last score was 56 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Solid start with scores of 53 & 28 and no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: 63 in the first innings (and was looking in good shape too) then 13. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: First innings score of 30. Second innings score of 32 with a missed stumping chance on 31. David is also caught up in the ball tampering incident and is stood down as Vice Captain of the team during the third test. He is subsequently given a 12-month ban by Cricket Australia and returns home before the Johannesburg test.

 

UPDATES

1/03/2018: (1st Session) Added Cameron Bancroft (5). (2nd Session) – Added Steve Smith (56)
2/03/2018: (1st Session) Added Pat Cummins (3). (2nd Session) Added Josh Hazelwood (2*).
5/03/2018: Updated Cameron Bancroft (53); Smith (38); Cummins (26) & Josh Hazelwood (9*). Added Mitchell Marsh (96 & 6).
6/03/2018: Added David Warner (51 & 28).
7/03/2018: Updated charts to include NO* data. Added Usman Khawaja (14 & 6).
9/03/2018: Added Shaun Marsh (40 & 33). Updated Bancroft (38); Khawaja (FC-0/4); Warner (63); Smith (25); S. Marsh (24); M. Marsh (4); Cummins (0) & Hazelwood (10*).
10/03/2018: Updated charts to include a volatility direction. Added Tim Paine (25, 14 & 36).
11/03/2018: Added Mitchell Starc (35, 7 & 8).
12/03/2018: Updated 2nd Innings scores including Warner (13); Bancroft (24); Smith (11); S. Marsh (1) & Khawaja (75). Added Nathan Lyon (12, 2 & 17). Updated 2nd innings scores of M. Marsh (45); Cummins (5); Lyon (5); Hazelwood (17) & Paine (28*).
23/03/2018: Updated 1st innings scores to lunch including Warner (30) & Khawaja (5). Updated 1st innings scores to tea including Smith (5); S. Marsh (26) & Bancroft (77). Updated 1st innings scores to stumps on Day 2 including M. Marsh (5); Cummins (4); Starc (2) & Lyon (47).
25/03/2018: Updated the final 1st innings scores including Hazelwood (10) & Paine (34*).
26/03/2018: Updated the entire second innings including Bancroft (26); Warner (32); Khawaja (1); S. Marsh (0); Smith (7); M. Marsh (16); Cummins (0); Starc (7); Lyon (0); Hazelwood (5) & Paine (9*).
1/04/2018: Updates from the Johannesburg test, Day 2. Added Joe Burns (4); Peter Handscomb (0) and Matt Renshaw (8). Updates for M. Marsh (4); S. Marsh (16) and Khawaja (53).
2/04/2018: Updates from the Johannesburg test, Day 3. Updates for Cummings (50); Lyon (8) and Paine (62). Note: Chadd Sayers was out for a duck in his debut innings so I haven’t added him at this stage.
3/04/2018: Updates from Johannesburg, Day 4. Renshaw (5); Khawaja (7) and Burns (42). Updates from Day 5. S. Marsh (7); M. Marsh (0); Cummins (1); Paine (7); Lyon (9) and Hazlewood (9*). No updates for Sayers still as he was out for a duck.

Random Analytica: The United States of Violence

Two must read stories this week. CNN have listed the top mass shootings in the US since 1949 and The New York Times put together a thoughtful piece on how the shooters were able to obtain their weapons.

After the Port Arthur massacre in 1996 where 35 were killed by a deranged shooter Australia introduced sweeping gun control laws and removed access to military grade weapons. Since that time we have not had one mass shooting incident yet the United States of America continues to have mass shootings and the body counts are escalating.

It is my very strong view that civilians don’t need military grade weapons, bump stocks and silencers. Full-stop.

For my part I have put together an infographic on the nine worst mass shootings by an individual in the United States since 1949 which now includes the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shootings and highlights the array of military grade weapons utilised by the perpetrators.

Each weapon represents those killed.

This is done in solidarity with the kids of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School who are peacefully protesting against the gun culture in America today. I hope for their sake that they rid American streets of military grade weapons and end the culture mass shootings.

MassShootingsUSA_180214

Random Analytica: Most Cumulative Time In Space

I was in a discussion with the kids over the weekend over who had spent the most time in space. Astronaut Peggy Whitson broke a number of records for Team USA late last year but interestingly the board is stacked with Soviets, then Russians who comprise 90% of the top-10 and 80% of the top-50 given they have operated space stations since 1971 (starting with Salyut-1).

That discussion turned into a quick Top-10 chart.

MostCumulativeTimeInSpace

Note: M1-M6 represents separate mission flight times. The Soviet Union flag has been used for those cosmonauts who were accepted into the space program prior to 1991.

Random Analytica: Dow Jones Industrial Average closes down 1,032-points (-4.15%)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1,032-points overnight. This marks the second time in history that Index has closed down more than 1,000-points in a single day and is the second worst point’s on record. Although not even close to the worst day historically it does signal a surge in volatility that is spooking investors. Here is the updated chart.

180208_DowJonesIndustrialAvg_1032Drop

Some analysis via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Dow Jones plunges over 1,000 points as Wall Street and European sell-off deepens. Excerpt:

The blue-chip Dow Jones index closed 4.15 per cent lower at 23,860. In the final hour of trade, the S&P 500’s and Nasdaq’s losses deepened to 3.75 and 3.9 per cent respectively. The Dow and S&P are in correction territory, having fallen by more than 10 per cent since January 26, when they hit record highs.”

“The dust hasn’t settled yet, and I think both buyers and sellers are trying to figure out what this market really wants to do,” said Jonathan Corpina, Meridian Equity Partners’ senior managing partner. “I would think that this continues to happen for the next few trading sessions for everything to kind of get flushed out.”

Every S&P sector posted losses, with financials (-4.3pc), technology (-4.3pc) and consumer cyclicals (-3.9pc) being the worst performers. US market volatility jumped by 27 per cent overnight, with CBOE’S volatility index (VIX) rising to 35.17. The measure for market anxiety has more than doubled since last Friday — prior to the mass sell-off when the VIX index was at the relatively low 14.3

Furthermore, the London, Paris and Frankfurt indexes tumbled overnight, with falls between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent. During the European session, the Bank of England voted unanimously to keep British interest rates on hold. But the UK central bank warned rates may need to rise sooner, and by more than it had previously expected, due to an improving global economy.