The Australian cricket team are touring South Africa from late February to early April 2018.
For the history of the game a batters average has been calculated on their final score. In 2014 I developed the First Chance Average (FCA) which looks at Earned Runs and then First Chance Runs. The FCA complements the standard average and is calculated using the score the batter would have got if a legitimate chance had been taken by the opposing team. In the past few weeks I have been improving the metric and putting together my first comprehensive analysis using the Australian touring side of South Africa.
I am in the process of writing a detailed post on how the FCA works and will link it shortly.
Here is a look at the First Chance Averages of the 2018 Australian squad touring South Africa. I’ll be updating the charts as the tour progresses (see UPDATES).
PRE-TOUR: Cameron Bancroft commenced the tour with a standard average of 25.57 and under a bit of a cloud with Richard Hinds suggesting that Matt Renshaw might have earned a recall. Prior to South Africa his last score was a duck against England (2018) and in the preceeding eight innings he had not recorded a legitimate chance.
DURBAN: Scores of 5 & 53 with no chances. PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 38 & 24. Cameron has now had 12 test innings without giving the opposition a single chance. His FCA continues to remain aligned to his standard average.
PRE-TOUR: Pat Cummins returns to South Africa (after a long break) with a pretty solid standard average of 27.60 and an FCA of 19.17 (with three chances). Prior to Durban his last score was 24* against England (Sydney, 2018).
DURBAN: Scores of 3 and 26 with no chances. PORT ELIZABETH: A golden duck then 5.
PRE-TOUR: Josh Hazelwood started the tour with 274-runs, a standard average of 11.91 and an FCA of 9.39 (with four chances). At the end of the Ashes he had recorded 17-not outs in 40-innings (42.5%). His last score prior to the tour was 1* against England (Melbourne, 2017).
DURBAN: Scores of 2* & 9* with no chances. With those scores he now has 19 not-outs from 42-innings (45.2%). PORT ELIZABETH: 10* and then 17 in 17-balls.
Bancroft vs. Renshaw might have been the cricket conversation prior to tour commencing in South Africa but I had a thought that Usman Khawaja might be the batter in trouble.
Usman Khawaja commenced the tour with a healthy standard average of 45.80 but his First Chance Average was a much lower 34.96 after nine-chances. He has scored 1,608 Earned Runs with a volatility of22.0% which is extremely high. His last score was 171 against England (Sydney, 2018) BUT his 2017 year was very ordinary.
FCA stats for 2017: 129 Earned Runs. Four Chances plus 127 First Chance Runs with a volatility of 49.6%.
One to watch.
DURBAN: Disappointing start with a 14, then 6 in the second innings while reverse sweeping? PORT ELIZABETH: First innings score of 4 but a tough chance was put down when still on a duck (Earned Runs then = 0). In the second innings Usman grafted out a score of 75 without a chance. Enough done to lock him in for the rest of the tour.
PRE-TOUR: Nathan commenced the tour with standard average of 11.61 and a FCA of 11.14 after just five chances. His pre-tour volatility is a miserly 2.5% which means he looks after his wicket either as a tailender or as the night watchman which he gets promoted to consistently. Prior to South Africa his last score was 29 against England (Melbourne, 2017).
DURBAN: 1st innings score of 12 after being dropped on two, then a second innings score of two after being dropped on one. Prior to Durban Nathan had not presented a chance to the opposition since he was caught but not given out in Port Elizabeth way back in February 2014. PORT ELIZABETH: A first innings score of 17 then 5.
PRE-TOUR: Mitchell commenced the tour with standard average of 29.24 and no chances, thus no FCA after 39-innings. Prior to South Africa his last score was 101, his second century against England (Sydney, 2018).
DURBAN: Scores of 96 and 6 with one chance in the 1st innings, a tough one while on 42. PORT ELIZABETH: Sick as a dog Mitchell scored 4 in the first innings and then 45 in the second.
PRE-TOUR: Shaun commenced the tour averaging 40.87 (standard) and 29.69 (FCA) after nine chances. It should be noted that his Earned Run volatility is a high 25.8% but that has been reducing as he put together some solid scores during 2017. Prior to South Africa his last score was 156 against England (Sydney, 2018).
DURBAN: Shaun commenced the tour with solid scores of 40 & 33 with no chances. PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 24 & 1.
PRE-TOUR: Tim’s chart should be viewed in two parts with four tests in 2010 then a long break to 2017. He commenced the tour averaging 39.92 (standard) and 30.67 (FCA) after two chances in 2010. His high score of 92 came after two drops (0 & 86) thus his FCA high score is his more recent 57. Prior to South Africa his last score was 38* against England (Sydney, 2018).
DURBAN: Scores of 25 & 14. PORT ELIZABETH: A decent last partnership knock of 36 in the 1st innings and then 28* in the second.
PRE-TOUR: Steve Smith is the real deal. He commenced the tour with an impressive standard average of 63.76 and a FCA of 54.67 (with 19-chances). Prior to South Africa his last score was 83 against England (Sydney, 2018).
DURBAN: Scores of 56 and 38 including a tough chance in the 1st innings when he was 47. PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 25 and 11. Interestingly his scores since Melbourne without the FCA are in an almost perfect decline, that is 102*; 83, 56, 38, 25 & 11.
PRE-TOUR: Mitchell Starc is the big hitting bowler who can bat on occassion. He commenced the tour with a standard average of 23.15 and a FCA of 18.78 after 9-chances. Prior to South Africa his last score was 11 against England (Sydney, 2018).
DURBAN: Scores of 35 & 7. PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 8 & 1.
PRE-TOUR: David Warner commenced the tour with impressive averages of 48.78 (standard) and 40.61 (FCA) with 23-chances to-date. He has scored 989 first chance runs (15.9%) which is high but reflective of the openers position he has held for the majority of his test career. Prior to South Africa his last score was 56 against England (Sydney, 2018).
DURBAN: Solid start with scores of 53 & 28 and no chances. PORT ELIZABETH: 63 in the first innings (and was looking in good shape too) then 13.
1/03/2018: (1st Session) Added Cameron Bancroft (5). (2nd Session) – Added Steve Smith (56)
2/03/2018: (1st Session) Added Pat Cummins (3). (2nd Session) Added Josh Hazelwood (2*).
5/03/2018: Updated Cameron Bancroft (53); Steve Smith (38); Pat Cummins (26) & Josh Hazelwood (9*). Added Mitchell Marsh (FC-42/96 & 6).
6/03/2018: Added David Warner (51 & 28).
7/03/2018: Updated charts to include NO* data. Added Usman Khawaja (14 & 6).
9/03/2018: Added Shaun Marsh (40 & 33). Updated Cameron Bancroft (38); Usman Khawaja (FC-0/4); David Warner (63); Steve Smith (25); Shaun Marsh (24); Mitchell Marsh (4); Pat Cummins (0) & Josh Hazelwood (10*).
10/03/2018: Updated charts to include a volatility direction. Added Tim Paine (25, 14 & 36).
11/03/2018: Added Mitchell Starc (35, 7 & 8).
12/03/2018: Updated 2nd Innings scores including David Warner (13); Cameron Bancroft (24); Steve Smith (11); Shaun Marsh (1) & Usman Khawaja (75). Added Nathan Lyon (FC-2/12, FC-1/2 & 17). Updated 2nd innings scores of Mitchell Marsh (45); Pat Cummins (5); Nathan Lyon (5); Josh Hazelwood (17) & Tim Paine (28*).