Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Random Analytica: Russian Cruise Missiles Destroyed by Ukraine (to 28th November 2022)

The Kyiv Independent was reporting another 75 cruise missiles shot down yesterday (which was a huge number). Anyway, it was a typo, but it got me looking at the amount of cruise missiles which Ukraine have claimed they have shot down.

Couple of things jump out at me.

  • Since the 11th of October the Ukrainians have destroyed 282/531 missiles, or approx. 53% of the total in just 49-days.
  • The ‘Big-Day’ was the 16th of November when 75 cruise missiles were destroyed, or approx. 14% in one day.
  • The average has escalated from roughly one shoot down per day to two per day over the course of recent months. The Russians are firing more missiles and the Ukrainians are shooting more down.

Tough days.

Slava Ukraini.

Random Analytica: Russian Troop Losses in Ukraine (to 23rd November 2022)

The Battle of Kherson is over. The Russians are bombarding their former city. Looks like it’s going to be a long winter of attrition.

According to the Ukrainians the Russians lost 410-troops today. During the height of the Battle of Kherson as Russian troops abandoned their positions the 7-day average hit a high of 704.3. That number has almost halved and today was 385.7.

A very tough month for Russian Defence Forces.

Slava Ukraini.

48. Mefloquine Dispatches: Homelessness (21st November 2022)

Homelessness. Not my first rodeo but it has been a while.

I moved into the cabin, a converted bee aviary in early 2018. It has been home for 4.5-years.

On the 30th of October 2022 I advised my landlady that I was involved in the Royal Commission into Defence & Veteran Suicides.

A week later I was told to leave.

It wasn’t much. No hot running water and no immediate toilet or shower facilities (under the main house, quite the walk in the middle of winter I must tell you). As you can see from the above text there were no problems with my landlady in the previous four and a half years. For what it was worth, it was home.

J* might be looking at more rent and thinks a bloke who stood on a wall for a bit might not be a good option (I wasn’t asked). More likely she is worried about her sketchy son who moved in about two years back and his mates getting up to no good. Her son loved stealing my mower fuel or taxing the odd thing out of the barn that took his fancy.

Whatever the reason, the thing that changed her mind was the Royal Commission.

So, my home for four and a half years is gone.

Anyways, my whole family comes over to help me. The five of us spend the best part of three hours cleaning and tidying up (it’s one room). Literally, my cabin is the tidiest part of the property (as the owner and the kids are filthy) and I’ve hardly been there over the past year. When the clean is done I even buy her a VB ‘tallie’ and leave it in the fridge to say no hard feelings.

Later on the same evening I get a text from J* saying there were things she was not happy with and implying she was going to withhold the bond. Minor stuff but I’ve seen her do it to another tenant. I told her to keep her bond. I’m done dealing with evil people.

I suppose the point I’m trying to make is that even 25-years later my service costs me. Everyday. Sometimes in small ways and then you get days like this.

Joy. Homeless again…

 

Crack on!

47. Mefloquine Dispatches: Dun & Bradstreet (28th September 2004)

Being ‘triggered’ is part of my “thing”. I’ve only noticed it in recent years but on reflection it has been happening for a quarter-of-a-century. Just had one today. I’ll document to help explain things!

Here it goes…

I see a tweet via Luke Henriques-Gomes. This is the tweet:

Straight away and out loud I say this… “I fucking know Dun & Bradstreet”.

I’m better with memory work in 2022. I’m surprised by the date but only by one year (which for me is pretty good).

So, after the Australian Army sent me insane in March 1997, I struggled on for another 18-months, in the Army. Then I went very publicly insane again in October 1998. The Army decided after a long fight to give me an Administrative Discharge (effectively a Dishonourable Discharge) and fine me $500.

By the time I got this lovely letter from Dun & Bradstreet I was on struggle street.

Thank you for your service. Also, thank you Joel…

Random Analytica: Ukraine. Russian APC Losses hit 5,000 (to 4th October 2022)

If you want to understand how Russia are not just losing the war but might collapse as a society, consider this. Since the start of the war against Ukraine they have lost 5,000 armoured personnel carriers. 5,000!

 

When I saw Kyiv Independent post the number today I thought straight away, do they correlate with the Russian troop losses (short answer – they don’t). Seems like Russia is running out of APC/APVs for the troops. The losses around the Battle of Kyiv and then into late April/May must have smashed Russian reserves.

7-day average of APC losses sits at 19.6. They still have equipment. The Ukrainians are still blowing it up. The Russians will run out.

Slava Ukraini.

42. Mefloquine Dispatches: FOI – One Document (30th September 2022)

Freedom of Information Directorate
Department of Defence
PO Box 7910
R1-05-A
Canberra BC ACT 2610

30th September 2022

By email: foi@defence.gov.au

Dear FOI Coordinator,

This is a request for the purpose of the Freedom of Information Act 1982 for access to the following documents:

On the 26th April 2019 the Army refused my FOI 348/18/19 request. It stated:

“10. Headquarters 1st Division located one document that mentioned Mr Granger, however it did not relate to OP BARITONE 97. No other documents were found that mentioned Mr Granger.”

Some random full bird. Read that document and made a call about me. He didn’t have to, yet he did. Then he felt the need to “share”.

I think he might also be referring to the night I went insane in 1998. I think he “shared” just to be a bastard.

Upon reflection, I’d be very interested in reading that document now. Thank you.

Should you have any questions in relation to this request, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

For your review and consideration

Shane Granger
30th September 2022

If you need help…

Thank you for your interest. More Mefloquine Dispatches can be found here.

UPDATES

TBC

41. Mefloquine Dispatches: FOI – The Last Signalman (9th Sep 2022)

9th September 2022

By email: foi@defence.gov.au

Dear FOI Coordinator,

Before I make the declarations, I’d like for you to consider the following.

I won’t be able to point to a single document or set of events that would assist in this search. I’ll try but I’m likely to fail the direct request you are seeking. That said. I put forward this FOI request because it is important.

So, a quick story before the declarations.

It is the 6th June 2019. I have recently been released from the Cooinda Mental Health Service, my first MH hospitalisation (unfortunately, not my last). I am trying to work out the MyService website. It is almost as awful as the Centrelink services I have become accustomed to as my health deteriorates.

I fckn hate medals. Hate the glorification of the military. Hate ANZAC Day. Anyways, I finally got a gong and Wayne Swan pins it on me, so I think it is all good. Except, it isn’t good. I wear it once and I’m so shitty wearing it I give it away to my second son (who thinks it has some value). Back to 2019…

I’m doing the whole MyService thing on the MyGov site and they ask me do you want to sign up for the Covenant and I’m like, OK… Should be cool right?

I’m going through the process to get a nice letter from the DVA Minister, the Secretary (oh, Liz) and a pin I could wear instead of the gongs. Even though I hate it all I can find a way through. Until…

Some fuckwit at DVA doesn’t understand rank. There is no drop-down for Signalman. Signaller sure. Bombardiers aplenty… Language matters.

I go berko of course. Even put in an official complaint (completely ignored).

Back to official declarations.

This is a request for the purpose of the Freedom of Information Act 1982 for access to the following documents:

Any Australian Army documents that detail the last document that included Signalman

Should you have any questions in relation to this request, please don’t hesitate to contact me.

For your review and consideration

Shane Granger

9th September 2022

If you need help…

Thank you for your interest. More Mefloquine Dispatches can be found here.

UPDATES

13th Sep 2022: Permission for administrative release of documents

12th Sep 2022: Defence FOI Acknowledgement

Random Analytica: Ukraine. Russian Troop Losses (to 8th September 2022)

The Russians didn’t just have a bad day. They are having a series of bad days. Today was just the worst.

According to the Ukrainians the Russians lost 640-troops today. If correct it would be the worst day of losses for the Russians since early April and the most significant since the Battle for Kyiv.

It should also be noted that the 7-day average of losses has shot up past 400-per day for the first time and today sits at 414.3.

Slava Ukraini.

40. Mefloquine Dispatches: Accessing Superannuation, 17th April – 3rd May 2019

I’m very sick. Before being admitted to hospital I use the last of my dollars in the bank to pay a month of rent in advance. I ring my NEIS (New Enterprise Incentive Scheme) provider who immediately cancels my payments. When I leave hospital, I must reapply for Newstart. At approximately $700 per fortnight, it only just covers rent and food.

I am in a bad way mentally, physically, and financially.

I understand I can access up to $10,000 via my super due to financial hardship. I’ve assisted a few people in this regard in the past. I put in the application with the following cover letter:

I get the answer back via a phone call and follow-up email two weeks later. The answer is No.

I’ve been sober for more than 550-days to this point but this tips me over. I’m also reacting badly to the anti-psychotics I’ve been prescribed. I’ve just been released from hospital and now staring down the barrel of homelessness (again). I don’t care anymore. I buy a flagon and get to work.

Ironically, I’ve been doing a financial planning internship for two years. I’m doing the reading on compassionate grounds, but the bar is set very high. Too high for me in fact. The suggestion of going to the Department of Human Services and asking for mercy is laughable. I re-read the email from MLC as the wine kicks in and I have a thought. Don’t I get some money from the DVA?

I send the DVA a request for more information. They respond the very next day.

It is $6.20 per fortnight but meets the criteria for a pension payment. I’ve been on it for eight months. I forward the pension verification to MLC.

My application for accessing my superannuation is approved the next day.

It shouldn’t be this hard.

If you need help…

Thank you for your interest. More Mefloquine Dispatches can be found here.

39. Mefloquine Dispatches: Anti-Malarial Medications Health Assessment Program, 15th March 2019

I wasn’t involved in the 2018 Senate Enquiry into the “Use of the Quinoline anti-malarial drugs Mefloquine and Tafenoquine in the Australian Defence Force”. Why would I? I never deployed.

Turned out I copped the Mefloquine Loading Dose in 1997. Plus, the cocktail they serve up afterwards. It was never noted in my medical or personal records. I didn’t remember it until I had flashbacks to another incident. It all got lost to history until the flashbacks hospitalised me.

I got very ill in late 2018 and continued to worsen until I was hospitalised in March 2019. I left the mental health unit in early April with a will to get better. I tried to work with the Department of Veterans Affairs for months after that and my advocates and I were initially optimistic about the DVA’s response to the Senate Enquiry. As my advocate and I filled out the claims for mefloquine which I had done almost two-decades previously we were heartened by Darren Chester’s announcement of the Anti-Malarial Initiative.

You can read the Ministers statement here. He announced this on the 15th March 2019.

When my advocate and I rang up a few months later in mid-2019 we were told that the entire Mefloquine programme was being shut down!

Here is the official response for the anti-malarial health check dated 2nd October 2019.

We fought very hard to get mefloquine back on the agenda. The various Ministers and the DVA have fought against us at every step.

The Anti-Malarial Medications Health Assessment Program finally got up in late 2021 run by BUPA. Outsourced to an insurance company.

Why is that important today?

Because the DVA is promoting a program that outsources complex health situations for veterans in extremely hazardous situations to an insurance group. This has led to deaths amongst veterans.

It needs to stop.

If you need help…

Thank you for your interest. More Mefloquine Dispatches can be found here.