Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 25 Apr 2013)
by Shane Granger
***** Please note that this infographic of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus was updated with public source information from late 25 Apr to early 26 April 2013 CET/EST *****
In the past 24-hours there has been confirmation of 3 new cases and no additional fatalities. This brings the total for China to 111-cases including 23-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without a fatality. (It should be noted that I have not included the suspected Jiangxi case as it has not been confirmed by the Centre for Health Protection or the asymptomatic Beijing case in my count).
To date 20.5% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.
There were no confirmed discharges in the past 24-hours. The confirmed recoveries remain static at 14 (12.5%). (Note: I have also made a change to the infographic to track paediatrics and children. 0 – 2 year olds will be shown as a baby symbol and 3 – 12 year olds will be shown as a small girl/boy symbol.)
The most recent fatality reported was on the 24th April 2013 via Xinhua.
I’m a Workforce Analyst (doing an Economics Masters) so one of the metrics I have been tracking is what confirmed cases do for employment. Currently I have 72-inputs and as shown in the infographic the top five employments were Retired, Farmer, Unemployed, Live Poultry Trade and Chef/Cook.
The Lancet today suggested that avian influenza A(H7N9) comes from wet market chickens (for a brief overview I’d suggest viewing Crawford Killian H5N1 update with relevant links). Given the high average age of those presenting and the fact that they would do a lot of food preparation you can start to see a confluence of data to support that. Of the five top job titles, four would have significant exposure to chickens.
Here’s a look at the top 20 incidences by job title (I have not included 3 confusing data inputs due to machine translation issues. For interest only they are 1x company employee and 2x freelance (and if anyone out there can translate these please send me a tweet @gmggranger).
I’m only a recent China watcher but many economists that I follow and talk to agree that Chinese economic data needs to have the ‘trust and verify’ test before it can be validated and utilised for analysis. If you need some more background on this then Stephen Koukoulas, an Australian economist and former advisor to the current Prime Minister Julia Gillard discussed this recently in a Business Spectator article.
Unfortunately the avian influenza A(H7N9) will not have a lot of outside inputs to China that can be verified and tracked. With numbers of new victims levelling off somewhat in recent days I’d be interested to see what happens outside of China, especially in Taiwan or another East Asian country if the virus spreads further.
You mention that the “five top job titles, four would have significant exposure to chickens.” Retired, Farmer, Unemployed, Live Poultry Trade and Chef/Cook I count 3 for sure but unclear on fourth? Retired and unemployed, which one? Any change you have morbidity and mortality by age? Mortality rate may be a combination of factors associated with older people. Just a thought.
Thanks for the question and please excuse my poor wording.
You are correct in saying that three of the four job-titles can have significant exposure to fowl. They are Farmer, Live Poultry Trade and Chef/Cook.
To answer your question, I was suggesting the ‘Retired’ job title group.
Obviously the age of the sufferers heavily favour older cohorts which would reflect the high amount of retired persons impacted. Anecdotally, Chinese retiree’s do a lot of household activities, especially for those with working age children, thus are more likely to be exposed to both the live poultry trade (where the Lancet study has linked the spread of the disease) and in food preparation (another possible source).
Hope that adds the clarity my infographic and explanation missed.