Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 1 May 2013)

by Shane Granger

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 1 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130502

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there has been one new case, reported from Hunan Province and for the second consecutive day, no new fatalities. This brings the total for China to 128-cases including 24-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that this includes asymptomatic cases.

To date 18.6% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were no new announcements on discharges today. With no new data the current count of recoveries remains at 25 (19.4%) and asymptomatic cases at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 29th April 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CumulativeCases_130502

Cumulative Cases

Here is a look at the cumulative cases, fatalities and current Case Fatality Rate (CFR). Given the percentile of known H7N9 cases are still receiving treatment remains above 60% the CFR should be seen as a useful guide only.

Two interesting data-points from this chart. The first is that the cumulative cases have only increased by 10 over the past five days, averaging just 2 a day over a territory larger than South Africa and a population of more than half a billion.

The second item is that since mid-April the Case Fatality percentile has remained steady between the ranges of 18.3% – 22.2%.

What will tomorrow bring?

Note: My previous post on this can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 30 Apr 2013)