Random Analytica

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 3 May 2013 CET/EST *****

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there have been no new cases of H7N9 and as many as two fatalities, although only one death was fully reported via Xinhua. This brings the total for China to 128-cases including 26-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that this includes asymptomatic cases.

There have been a number of reports, supported by organisations such as CIDRAP and FluTrackers.com which put the number of fatalities at 27. Given that only one fatality was identified on the 2^nd May and the numbers seem to be including that person on top of the 26 announced via  Xinhua in a weekly update I am going to keep my number at 26 until further information can be verified.

To date 20.2% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

Although there were no new announcements on discharges today a weekly report stated that 26 people had recovered from the disease. That would increase the recovery number to 26 (20.2%) and asymptomatic cases at one (0.7%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 2^nd May 2013 via Xinhua.

Cumulative Cases (Zhejiang)

Yesterday I looked at cumulative cases (just cases and deaths) across the entire H7N9 dataset.

Today I thought a look at the cases, fatalities, recoveries and Work-In-Progress (WIP) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Zhejiang only might be useful. Given the percentile of known H7N9 cases are very low and those still receiving treatment remains just below 70% the CFR should be seen as a useful guide only. Also of note is that Zhejiang has had no reported asymptomatic cases and as shown in the daily infographic we still have a ‘Fog of Flu’ or a lack of data around two deaths and three recoveries which may impact on this chart.

Two data-points jump out at me.

Firstly, would be the lower WIP CFR of 13%, much lower than the entire disease average which stands at (20.2%) today.

The second and more interesting data-point is that after a sharp rise in cases between 2 April and 18 April (where new cases reported averaged 2.3 per day) there have been no cases reported now for 14-days.

I have always thought that data that is 100% correct or 100% absent is unusual and worth looking into further.

The fact that there has been no data from Zhejiang for two weeks is ‘unusual’.

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 1 May 2013)

Updates (3/05/2013)

• Updated Infographic section with note about 27^th fatality.