Random Analytica

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 4 May 2013 CET/EST *****

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there have been no new cases of H7N9 and no new fatalities, although the 27^th fatality (without specifics) was reported by Xinhua. This brings the total for China to 128-cases including 27-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that all totals include asymptomatic cases.

To date 20.9% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were 10 discharges over the past 24-hours, all from Zhejiang and just 17-hours after I discussed the lack of detail from that province. Although Xinhua detailed the case of Cao it didn’t provide any detail of the 9 other outpatients discharged today. With ten H7N9 cases cleared that would bring the total recovered to 36 (27.9%). Asymptomatic cases remain at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 3^rd May 2013 via Xinhua.

Zhejiang: 17-hours later

Yesterday I looked at cumulative cases for Zhejiang, the most impacted to date by H7N9.

At that time there were 46-cases with 6-deaths and 6-recoveries and no new reported cases in 14-days.

How 17-hours can make a difference.

There have been only two Xinhua H7N9 stories released in the past 24-hours. The first confirmed the 27^th fatality but did not provide details of the two most recent victims. The second story detailed the recovery of Cao who had recovered from the severest of symptoms thus far.

It also stated:

“Nine other H7N9 patients were also discharged on Friday from the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University.”

I have updated yesterday’s chart with the data input provided. I’d advise that this is a look at the cases, fatalities, recoveries and Work-In-Progress (WIP) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Zhejiang only and might be useful. Given the percentile of known H7N9 cases for Zhejiang are very low and those still receiving treatment remains above 50% the CFR should be seen as a useful guide only. Also of note is that Zhejiang has had no reported asymptomatic cases and as shown in the daily infographic we still have a ‘Fog of Flu’ or a lack of data around three-deaths and 12-recoveries which may impact this chart.

No data points jump out at me, but…

A long time ago I was a soldier, a communicator and a Cold War warrior who trained up against the best the Soviets were still pumping out in 1989/90.

I always remember my first ‘operational active’ exercise where I watch the Vladivostok fishing vessels trailing our combined fleet and being told that though most of this peace time force would be going through the motions, my efforts were real.

I was told that everything communicated was tracked, analysed and would be brought up in future operations. There were no ‘co-incidences’ in data…

Zhejiang had no new data for 2-weeks as of yesterday. It has some today.

Coincidence?

I’ll not leave it on a semi-pseudo conspiracy theory. I had a fantastic 3-tweet conversation with Crawford Kilian today. He stated that I was more literate but I would counter that he has a unique ability to be a superbly interesting chap on Twitter.

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 2 May 2013)