Random Analytica

Charts, Infographics & Analytics. No Spinning the Data. No Juking the Stats

Month: January, 2018

Random Analytica: Rift Valley Fever 2000 to January 21, 2018

Over the African summer there have been several small outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever in both South Sudan and Uganda. In Yirol East, Eastern Lakes District in South Sudan an outbreak has resulted in six confirmed cases with three deaths. In Uganda there have been five cases spread over a wide area in that countries cattle corridor resulting in five cases and four deaths.

Here are the key facts about Rift Valley Fever via the World Health Organisation (updated July 2017).

  • • Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral zoonosis that primarily affects animals but can also infect humans.
  • • The majority of human infections result from contact with the blood or organs of infected animals.
  • • Human infections have also resulted from the bites of infected mosquitoes.
  • • To date, no human-to-human transmission of RVF virus has been documented.
  • • The incubation period (the interval from infection to onset of symptoms) for RVF varies from 2 to 6 days.
  • • Outbreaks of RVF in animals can be prevented by a sustained programme of animal vaccination.

While most human cases are relatively mild, a small percentage of patients develop a much more severe form of the disease. This usually appears as 1 or more of 3 distinct syndromes: ocular (eye) disease (0.5–2% of patients), meningoencephalitis (less than 1% of patients) or haemorrhagic fever (less than 1% of patients).

According to WHO, since 2000 there have been 15 significant outbreaks of Rift Valley Fever which have impacted 13-countries and at least one case was exported to China.

Here is a look at the Rift Valley Fever outbreaks by country since 2000.

RiftValleyFever - 180121

NOTE: The 2007 Sudan outbreak occurred prior to the creation of South Sudan but the outbreak was limited to districts within modern day Sudan.

The latest South Sudan update via the World Health Organisation. Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR). Epidemiological Update W2 2018 (Jan 8-Jan 14). Excerpt (from page 14):

Epidemics – Update (RVF, Yirol East)

A Rift Valley Fever (RVF) outbreak reported in Thonabutkok village, Yali Payam, Yirol East county with the initial case dating back to 7 December 2017.

As of 21 January 2018, a total of 15 suspect RVF human cases have been reported in Eastern Lakes State. Out of the 15 suspect human cases reported since 7 December 2017, three human cases have been confirmed, three died and were classified as probable cases with epidemiological linkage to the three confirmed cases, four were classified as none-cases following negative laboratory results for RVF, and laboratory testing is pending for the other five suspect cases.

At the moment – field investigation (human, animal, entomological) are ongoing; supportive care to suspect cases; and social mobilisation and risk communication. Discussions on a joint Ministry of Health and Ministry of Livestock and Fisheries outbreak declaration are ongoing at the highest levels of Government.

The latest Uganda update again via the World Health Organisation. Government of Uganda confirms outbreak of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic and Rift Valley fevers. Excerpt:

The Ministry of Health in Uganda confirmed an outbreak of the Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever and Rift Valley Fever in Nakasseke and Luwero respectively.

Regarding RVF, a total of five patients including four deaths have been confirmed in this outbreak. Cases have been sporadic, with no epidemiological link, and are spread out in diverse geographical areas in the cattle corridor. This is the second time RVF cases are confirmed in Uganda.

During a press conference at the Uganda Media Centre, the Minister of Health, Dr Jane Ruth Aceng informed the media that the government has employed rapid interventions to manage and control the outbreaks. She also revealed that a National Rapid Response Team of expert epidemiologists, clinicians, veterinarians, communicators and laboratory specialists was deployed in the affected districts to establish and support the response structures.

 

Random Analytica: Poor record for top-3 purchases at Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling sales

Almost every year the records for the Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling sales are broken. This year a colt sold for $2,000,000 making it the most expensive purchase in the events history. Money spent increased for the sixth consecutive year; up by approximately $21-million on 2017 and across the entire event overall sales have increased from $75.9-million in 2010 to $180-million this month.

Ok, that’s interesting but how did the big purchases in the past decade fare? I’ve charted the two most expensive horses each year from 2010, then included the next most expensive horse that has broken even in terms of prize money only… (Adding the true cost of horse ownership is just too hard but if you are interested I would recommend reading Cuffelinks: The economic reality of breeding and owning racehorses by Garry Mackrell).

GCMMSales2010~18

2010: Cross Of Gold was the top purchase at $925,000 and although he is still racing in Western Australia as a 9-year old gelding his 71-starts for $225,626 is well short of what connections originally hoped for. The first break-even horse was Hoylonny, who cost $380,000 but won 7-races and earned $469,330 before retiring in 2015. The stand-out horse in the first 20 was Delago Deluxe who was shipped to South Africa, won approx. 1.5M Rand (approx. $160,000) including a Group 1. He has now retired to stud duties back in Australia.

2011: Connections would still not be smiling when they bought Laughing Lad for $1,150,000 with a miserly $8,720 return. Aptly named No Looking Back was the fourth most expensive horse at $500,000 and before a quick-fire career she returned $635,250 and retired in 2014 with a ROI of 27.1%.

2012: Another tough year for buyers of thoroughbreds. Bull Point was the top purchase at $960,000 and he amassed a decent $552,000 in earnings before retiring to stud in 2016. The first break-even horse then was the 16th most expensive horse Centre Pivot who has won eight races, earned connections $718,033 and might chalk up more in the next couple of years.

2013: This was the big year for the Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling sales when the 61st most expensive horse, Winx was picked up for $230,000. She has currently returned $15.63-million to date. The most expensive horse bought that year was Valentia who cost $1,350,000 and returned $218,800 before retiring to stud duties in 2016. The first break-even horse was another good-thing, 2016 Group 1 Emirates winner Awesome Rock who cost $575,000 (4th most expensive) but won just over $2,000,000 during his career.

2014: Red Knot was the only $1,000,000 horse in 2014 and has currently returned $125,710 without setting the world on fire. At 14th the export Campbell Junior has been winning big in Japan and has so far earned around ¥97,266,000 (approx. $1,100,000 AUD). No stand-outs currently sit between Red Knot & Campbell Junior although all twelve horses are racing.

2015: The top three only. Ready Fire Aim was bought for $1,200,000 and in 2017 won two country NSW races for total prize money of $45,090. The next two big purchases Alter Call (cost $1,050,000) and Pirapala ($850,000) have both won races but their prize money is still sub-$100,000 as they struggle through the grades. Let’s see how they race in 2018.

2016: The top purchase of 2016 was Chauffer at $1,600,000. This horse is looking the goods with $555,250 already in the kitty including a 2nd behind Houtzen at the 2017 Magic Millions 2Y Classic which earned connections $370,000. That said Chauffer still needs to win more than $1,000,000 to become the first top-3 purchase to break-even in a decade. Showtime (4th most expensive at $1,100,000) and Dracarys (5th at $1,000,000) are also showing some early signs of good form.

2017: The only two year old from last year who was purchased for more than a $1-million and is on the radar is Angel having won their maiden at Geelong.

No Looking Back and Awesome Rock, each the 4th most expensive horses in their respective years won more money than they initially cost and were good buys in the end. I find that terribly ironic given my ability to pick 4th places on a regular basis. If you bought into the three most expensive horses over the last decade then you fared poorly with none of the 22-horses returning more than they cost at this stage (with fingers crossed for Chauffer).

Best of luck!

 

 

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