Random Analytica

Charts, Infographics & Analytics. No Spinning the Data. No Juking the Stats

Month: February, 2018

Random Analytica: The United States of Violence

Two must read stories this week. CNN have listed the top mass shootings in the US since 1949 and The New York Times put together a thoughtful piece on how the shooters were able to obtain their weapons.

After the Port Arthur massacre in 1996 where 35 were killed by a deranged shooter Australia introduced sweeping gun control laws and removed access to military grade weapons. Since that time we have not had one mass shooting incident yet the United States of America continues to have mass shootings and the body counts are escalating.

It is my very strong view that civilians don’t need military grade weapons, bump stocks and silencers. Full-stop.

For my part I have put together an infographic on the nine worst mass shootings by an individual in the United States since 1949 which now includes the Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School shootings and highlights the array of military grade weapons utilised by the perpetrators.

Each weapon represents those killed.

This is done in solidarity with the kids of Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School who are peacefully protesting against the gun culture in America today. I hope for their sake that they rid American streets of military grade weapons and end the culture mass shootings.

MassShootingsUSA_180214

Random Analytica: Most Cumulative Time In Space

I was in a discussion with the kids over the weekend over who had spent the most time in space. Astronaut Peggy Whitson broke a number of records for Team USA late last year but interestingly the board is stacked with Soviets, then Russians who comprise 90% of the top-10 and 80% of the top-50 given they have operated space stations since 1971 (starting with Salyut-1).

That discussion turned into a quick Top-10 chart.

MostCumulativeTimeInSpace

Note: M1-M6 represents separate mission flight times. The Soviet Union flag has been used for those cosmonauts who were accepted into the space program prior to 1991.

Random Analytica: Dow Jones Industrial Average closes down 1,032-points (-4.15%)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1,032-points overnight. This marks the second time in history that Index has closed down more than 1,000-points in a single day and is the second worst point’s on record. Although not even close to the worst day historically it does signal a surge in volatility that is spooking investors. Here is the updated chart.

180208_DowJonesIndustrialAvg_1032Drop

Some analysis via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Dow Jones plunges over 1,000 points as Wall Street and European sell-off deepens. Excerpt:

The blue-chip Dow Jones index closed 4.15 per cent lower at 23,860. In the final hour of trade, the S&P 500’s and Nasdaq’s losses deepened to 3.75 and 3.9 per cent respectively. The Dow and S&P are in correction territory, having fallen by more than 10 per cent since January 26, when they hit record highs.”

“The dust hasn’t settled yet, and I think both buyers and sellers are trying to figure out what this market really wants to do,” said Jonathan Corpina, Meridian Equity Partners’ senior managing partner. “I would think that this continues to happen for the next few trading sessions for everything to kind of get flushed out.”

Every S&P sector posted losses, with financials (-4.3pc), technology (-4.3pc) and consumer cyclicals (-3.9pc) being the worst performers. US market volatility jumped by 27 per cent overnight, with CBOE’S volatility index (VIX) rising to 35.17. The measure for market anxiety has more than doubled since last Friday — prior to the mass sell-off when the VIX index was at the relatively low 14.3

Furthermore, the London, Paris and Frankfurt indexes tumbled overnight, with falls between 1.5 and 2.5 per cent. During the European session, the Bank of England voted unanimously to keep British interest rates on hold. But the UK central bank warned rates may need to rise sooner, and by more than it had previously expected, due to an improving global economy.

Random Analytica: Dow Jones Industrial Average closes up 567-points (+2.3%)

A lot of talk yesterday about the big losses experienced on Wall Street with the Dow Jones down 1,175-points, the first time that index has declined by more than 1,000-points in a single day.

Crash, tumble and wipe-out were utilised frequently across news channels and social media. The #TrumpSlump hashtag was overutilised by many who really don’t understand markets.

In relative terms yesterday’s Dow Jones numbers were not the worst day of historical trading although they did break the previous point’s loss record. In fact, it didn’t even rate in the top 100 of trading day points losses. My thoughts are here along with a couple of charts.

Today the conversation is all about volatility as the Dow Jones returned almost half of yesterday’s losses.

In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had its 4th best day on record (in terms of points gained). Here is the updated top 20 chart.

180206_DJIA_PointsGained

To get within ‘coo-wee’ of needing to update the Biggest One-Day % Gains chart we would need a +7% increase which would equate to an approximate 1,750-point gain in a single day.

With volatility returning to the markets we might get more updates to this chart in coming weeks.

Random Analytica: Dow Jones Industrial Average closes down 1,175-points (-4.6%)

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 1,175.21 points overnight losing 4.6% of its value in one-day of trading. That is the single worst day in terms of points but is it the worst day ever?

The simple answer is NO. In fact it doesn’t even rate in the top 20!

Here are a couple of charts to prove that point.

180205_DowJonesIndustrialAvg_Points

In terms of points the Dow Jones Industrial Average did have its worst day on record. The previous record was a loss of 777.68 points on the 29th September 2008 at the height of the Global Recession.

Here is a look at the top-20 worst losses as a percentage which is the more accurate reflection of yesterday’s trading day in the United States.

180205_DowJonesIndustrialAvg_Percentage

In terms of percentage the Dow Jones Industrial Average did not have its worst day ever. In fact, yesterday’s trading losses do not even rate in the top 20 worst days on record.

Black Monday was the worst day on record. Here is a reminder of what that headline looks like. Via the Australian Broadcasting Commission. No, this wasn’t the worst day on the Dow Jones — we’ve seen worse. Excerpt:

October 19, 1987

Known as Black Monday in America, this was the day that 22.61 per cent was lost from the Dow Jones. This was followed by Black Tuesday in Australia, when the ASX plunged a massive 25 per cent in response.

871021_SydneyMorningHerald

Photo: Front page of the Sydney Morning Herald, 21st October 1987, the day after the stock market crash via the Australian Broadcasting Commission.

Big technical stock exchange losses make for great headlines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had a bad day and the Australian Stock Exchange is following that lead in response but it’s not the worst day ever.

Not even close.

Random Analytica: Guantanamo Detainees 2009 – 2018

Ian Bremmer, the President of the Eurasia Group sent out an interesting tweet yesterday which highlighted the amount of detainees held by the US Military at Guantanamo Bay since 2009. Interestingly there were 214 detainees held at the prison in 2009 when then President Obama ordered the facility closed. Today there are still 41 detainees including Hambali who is accused of orchestrating the 2002 Bali Bombings and has still not faced trial.

GuantanamoDetainees2018

The New York Times has an excellent interactive project site with all the details and is well-worth a look. The Guantanamo Docket. Overview:

About the Project

The Guantánamo Docket is an interactive database of documents and analysis from The New York Times about the roughly 780 men who have been detained at Guantánamo as enemy combatants since January 2002.

The Times has reviewed thousands of pages of government documents released in recent years, as well as court records and news media reports from around the world. The Times will update the database with ongoing research.

There are three types of documents in the database:

Combatant Status Review Tribunals

The database includes Pentagon documents related to the Combatant Status Review Tribunals, military hearings created in response to a 2004 decision by the United States Supreme Court to judge whether prisoners at Guantánamo were properly designated as enemy combatants and subject to indefinite detention. The hearings took place from July 2004 to March 2005.

Administrative Review Boards

The database also includes documents from subsequent Administrative Review Boards, panels of military officers conducting annual hearings to determine whether the detainees remain a threat to the United States or its allies.

These documents, along with the documents related to the Combatant Status Review Tribunals, were selected for public disclosure by the U.S. Defense Department in 2006 in response to a lawsuit brought under the Freedom of Information Act by The Associated Press.

Joint Task Force Assessments

The database also includes a selection of classified documents from the Guantánamo Joint Task Force, part of a huge trove of secret documents leaked last year to the anti-secrecy organization WikiLeaks. They were made available to The Times by another source on the condition of anonymity. The files contain the government’s assessment of the dangers the individuals represent. The files are dated from February 2002 to January 2009, and some of the information may have been superseded by later, still undisclosed assessments made during the Obama administration or by more highly classified documents.

The documents contain the Defense Department’s assessments of the detainees, some of which have been challenged in federal court, and in some of the cases lower court judges have ruled against evidence presented by the government. Those cases have been appealed.

In June 2013, the Justice Department released a list showing who of the remaining Guantánamo detainees has been recommended for transfer, prosecution or continued detention without trial. The list, released under the Freedom of Information Act, represents the final recommendations of a task force of national-security agencies President Obama put together in 2009 as part of his unfulfilled pledge to close the prison within a year. The group issued a report in early 2010, but its individual recommendations were not included in that document.

Lastly, a copy of the tweet by Ian Bremmer which kicked off the idea for the infographic.

180201_Tweet_IanBremmer_Guantanamo

UPDATES

13 Feb 2018: Amended first paragraph to include Hambali story.