Random Analytica

Charts, Infographics & Analytics. No Spinning the Data. No Juking the Stats

Month: May, 2018

Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo 4 April – 22 May 2018

The World Health Organisation updated its Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo Disease Outbreak News on Wednesday with numbers to Tuesday. The DR Congo Ministry of Health updated its numbers today with data to Wednesday presenting some new numbers including the invalidation of eight previously reported community deaths which occurred pre-outbreak.

Ian Mackay has broken down the numbers for us in an easy tweet. They are:

#Ebola numbers for 22MAY2018 from DRC MOH…

  • total: 58 (+0 from last report)
  • confirmed: 30 (+2)
  • suspect: 14 (+5)
  • probable: 14 (-7)
  • fatal: 22 (38%; -5)
  • Wangata: 10 (+3 suspect; +2 deaths)
  • Iboko: 24 (+6 suspect)
  • Bikoro: 24 (+3 suspect)

Those numbers in a infographic which details the cases/fatalities by territory (rather than Health Zone). Iboko Health Zone lies within Bikoro Territory:

180524_Infographic_EbolaInDRC

The World Health Organisation data via its latest Disease Outbreak News. Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo. Excerpt:

On 8 May 2018, the Ministry of Health (MoH) of the Democratic Republic of the Congo declared an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD). This is the ninth outbreak of Ebola virus disease over the last four decades in the country, with the most recent outbreak occurring in May 2017.

Since the last Disease Outbreak News on 17 May 2018, an additional fourteen cases with four deaths have been reported. On 21 May 2018, eight new suspected cases were reported, including six cases in Iboko Health Zone and two cases in Wangata Health Zone. On 20 May, seven cases (reported previously) in Iboko Health Zone have been confirmed. Recently available information has enabled the classification of some cases to be updated.

As of 21 May 2018, a cumulative total of 58 Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases, including 27 deaths (case fatality rate = 47%), have been reported from three health zones in Equateur Province. The total includes 28 confirmed, 21 probable and 9 suspected cases from the three health zones: Bikoro (n=29; ten confirmed and 19 probable), Iboko (n=22; fourteen confirmed, two probable and six suspected cases) and Wangata (n=7; four confirmed and three suspected case). Of the four confirmed cases in Wangata, two have an epidemiological link with a probable case in Bikoro from April 2018. As of 21 May, over 600 contacts have been identified and are being followed-up and monitored field investigations are ongoing to determine the index case. Three health care workers were among the 58 cases reported.

Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo 4 April – 15 May 2018

The World Health Organisation has updated its Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo Disease Outbreak News which include Epidemic Curve chart and a map illustrating the Health Zones impacted.

Currently there are 40-cases in Bikoro Territory (2-confirmed, 20-probable & 18-suspect) and I’ve assumed that all 23 reported fatalities have occurred in that territory based on the most recent reporting although this has not been confirmed by the WHO in this update.

Note: If all the 23 fatalities have occurred in Bikoro Territory that puts the CFR at 57.5%. However, if all the fatalities have occurred in the smaller Bikoro Health Zone the CFR then spikes to 65.7%. There have also been four cases reported in Wangata Territory including two brothers who travelled to Bikoro for a wedding. This places those four within the environs of Mbandaka, a city of 1.2 to 1.5-million.

WHO are also reporting three Health Care Workers among the 44 infected without providing any further information.

All the cases to date have occurred in Equateur Province which is represented in the infographic below:

180515_Infographic_EbolaInDRC

The World Health Organisation data via Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo. Excerpt:

Since the last Disease Outbreak News on 14 May 2018, an additional five cases, including one laboratory-confirmed case from the city of Mbandaka, Wangata health zone, have been notified by the country’s Ministry of Health. Wangata health zone is one of three health zones in Mbandaka City, which has a population of approximately 1.5 million people. Recently available information has enabled the classification of some cases to be updated1.

From 4 April through 15 May 2018, a cumulative total of 44 Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases including 23 deaths (CFR = 52%) have been reported from three health zones in Equateur Province. The total includes three confirmed, 20 probable and 21 suspected cases from the three health zones, Bikoro (n=35; two confirmed, 18 probable and 15 suspected cases), Iboko (n=5; two probable and three suspect cases) and Wangata (n=4; one confirmed, and three suspect cases). Of the four cases in Wangata, two have an epidemiological link with a probable case in Bikoro from April 2018. As of 15 May, 527 contacts have been identified and are being followed-up and monitored. Three health care workers were among the 44 cases reported. Figure 1 shows the date of notification (date of illness onset not yet available for most cases) for 27 cases with available data from 5 May through 15 May 2018. Figure 2 shows the location of cases by health zone.

Ebola in the Democratic Republic of Congo 4 April – 13 May 2018

The World Health Organization has updated its Disease Outbreak News (DON) on the Ebola outbreak which has data updated to the 13th May 2018. I missed the initial DON but the most recent news is both good and bad. Good in that WHO has immediately ramped up efforts to stem this latest outbreak including deploying the Ebola vaccine but also bad because the two probable cases in the Wangata territory are on the outskirts of a large population centre (Mbandaka – population 1.2-million).

The DON breaks down the cases by Health Zones. Currently those cases listed in Bikoro and Ikoko Health Zones lie within Bikoro Territory while the Wangata Territory encompasses the city of Mbandaka and surrounds. The Case Fatality Rate for Bikoro Territory is 51.3%. All the cases so far have occurred in Equateur Province. Infographic below:

180513_Infographic_EbolaInDRC

The data for this infographic was supplied by the World Health Organization via Disease Outbreak News 14 May 2018 – Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo. Excerpt:

Since the publication of the first Disease Outbreak News on the Ebola outbreak in Equateur province, Democratic Republic of the Congo on 10 May 2018, an additional seven suspected cases have been notified by the country’s Ministry of Health. Importantly, since the last update, cases have been reviewed and reclassified, and some discarded.

From 4 April through 13 May 2018, a total of 39 Ebola virus disease cases have been reported, including 19 deaths (case fatality rate = 49%) and three health care workers. Cases were reported from the Bikoro health zone (n=29; two confirmed, 20 probable and 7 suspected cases), Iboko health zone (n=8; three probable and five suspected cases) and Wangata health zone (n=2; two probable cases). To date, 393 contacts have been identified and are being followed-up. Wangata health zone is adjacent to the provincial port city of Mbandaka (population 1.2 million). Response teams on the ground are in the process of verifying information on reported cases. Case numbers will be revised as further information becomes available.

Random Analytica: Centrelink Call Wait Times 2006 – 2017

It seems almost heretical now but just a decade ago you could call Centrelink and get your phone answered in less than 2 ½-minutes (*most of the time). In fact, data collected by Centrelink in 2006-2007 showed that the average wait time of callers was just 1-minute and 50-seconds and that 71.6% of all calls were answered in the first 150-seconds.

Then something happened in 2008 to the way Centrelink reported its data.

Centrelink felt that it was so good at answering your calls within a few minutes it abandoned its Average Speed of Answer (ASA) reporting metric and amended its Call Answered from 150-second to 180-seconds.

For those too young to remember back in 2007 the iPhone only came on the scene in June 2007, so most people would call a government department via a landline (sometimes sneakily from work) or go to visit the relevant Government department and talk to a real person in their lunch-hour or on their day-off, especially if they worked part-time.

How did that work out for Centrelink?

ASA

The funky Calls Answered in 180-seconds metric was abandoned just one year after it was implemented and the Department of Human Services completely abandoned the 150-seconds metric from 2010/11. I suspect when more than 50% of calls don’t get answered within that timeframe you either need to review your service model OR you change your metric.

In the meantime the Average Speed of Answer (ASA) wait time blew-out from 1-minute and 50-seconds in 2007 to 15-minutes and 44-seconds in 2017. That’s an official 8.5x increase!

I’m sceptical about the Department answering a call within 16-minutes.

I had to ring Centrelink today. Everyone I talked too who has to deal with the Department told me to ring early but be prepared to wait a long-time.

I rang early (8.05am) and I was prepared to wait putting aside contract work for the express purpose of updating my details.

My call was answered an hour later (plenty of time to do the above chart)…

Phone