Random Analytica

The World Health Organisation has updated its Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo Disease Outbreak News which include Epidemic Curve chart and a map illustrating the Health Zones impacted.

Currently there are 40-cases in Bikoro Territory (2-confirmed, 20-probable & 18-suspect) and I’ve assumed that all 23 reported fatalities have occurred in that territory based on the most recent reporting although this has not been confirmed by the WHO in this update.

Note: If all the 23 fatalities have occurred in Bikoro Territory that puts the CFR at 57.5%. However, if all the fatalities have occurred in the smaller Bikoro Health Zone the CFR then spikes to 65.7%. There have also been four cases reported in Wangata Territory including two brothers who travelled to Bikoro for a wedding. This places those four within the environs of Mbandaka, a city of 1.2 to 1.5-million.

WHO are also reporting three Health Care Workers among the 44 infected without providing any further information.

All the cases to date have occurred in Equateur Province which is represented in the infographic below:

The World Health Organisation data via Ebola virus disease – Democratic Republic of the Congo. Excerpt:

Since the last Disease Outbreak News on 14 May 2018, an additional five cases, including one laboratory-confirmed case from the city of Mbandaka, Wangata health zone, have been notified by the country’s Ministry of Health. Wangata health zone is one of three health zones in Mbandaka City, which has a population of approximately 1.5 million people. Recently available information has enabled the classification of some cases to be updated1.

From 4 April through 15 May 2018, a cumulative total of 44 Ebola virus disease (EVD) cases including 23 deaths (CFR = 52%) have been reported from three health zones in Equateur Province. The total includes three confirmed, 20 probable and 21 suspected cases from the three health zones, Bikoro (n=35; two confirmed, 18 probable and 15 suspected cases), Iboko (n=5; two probable and three suspect cases) and Wangata (n=4; one confirmed, and three suspect cases). Of the four cases in Wangata, two have an epidemiological link with a probable case in Bikoro from April 2018. As of 15 May, 527 contacts have been identified and are being followed-up and monitored. Three health care workers were among the 44 cases reported. Figure 1 shows the date of notification (date of illness onset not yet available for most cases) for 27 cases with available data from 5 May through 15 May 2018. Figure 2 shows the location of cases by health zone.