Sport | Random Analytica

March 29, 2018

Random Analytica: Sandpapergate – The Fallout

The fallout from #SandpaperGate continues for Cricket Australia, Steve Smith, David Warner and Cameron Bancroft. Just days after Bancroft used sandpaper to scuff the ball at Cape Town the three cricketers who have been identified as the main contributors in the controversy have been given long playing bans, while Smith and Warner have both been cut from their respective IPL teams. The employment income alone can now be calculated in the millions.

Cricket Australia and the individual players are also becoming sponsorship persona non grata.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation has written a piece outlining the main details of the ongoing sponsorship fallout. Magellan tears up sponsorship deal with Cricket Australia over ball-tampering scandal. Excerpt:

Wealth-management company Magellan has terminated its three-year sponsorship agreement with Cricket Australia in response to the ball-tampering scandal.

The naming rights sponsorship of the men’s national cricket team’s domestic series, estimated by the Australian Financial Review to be worth $20 million, only started ahead of last summer’s Ashes Test series and was supposed to run for two more seasons.

Magellan’s co-founder and chief executive Hamish Douglass said the ball-tampering in South Africa was “so inconsistent with our values that we are left with no option but to terminate our ongoing partnership with Cricket Australia”.

In my finance life I have had the opportunity to meet Hamish and although I don’t know him well he is a much respected figure in the Wealth Management community and he would be horrified by the behaviour of the Australia Cricketers. I suspect when he returns to our shores to discuss his companies investments he will be answering more cricket questions than anything else.

Then there are the TV rights. ESPN have detailed the ongoing fallout for James Sutherland including the next five-year media rights deal with Channel 9 which was worth $500 million AUD in 2013 but might be worth a lot less than expected after this week. Sutherland flies home into mounting chaos. Excerpt:

Still more damaging was the revelation that Channel Nine, the prime broadcaster of cricket in Australia for more than 40 years, had signed a new deal to cover the summer of tennis up to and including the high-rating Australian Open. In the wake of the announcement, Sutherland received assurances from the Nine chief executive Hugh Marks that the network was still very much interested in the rights to cricket, but there were several factors to be digested.

Marks has previously made no secret of the fact that he does not see the need for Nine to maintain the umbilical connection to cricket that his predecessors David Gyngell and David Leckie, in particular, maintained either side of the death of Kerry Packer in 2005. There have also been strong indications that Nine does not wish to again pay the AUD 500 million price tag CA slapped on its international summer of cricket in 2013.

Here is an infographic to highlight the sponsorship fallout (updated to Thursday 29^th March) with thanks to Michael Janda for the idea.

Sandpapergate_180330

March 22, 2018

Random Analytica: Introducing the First Chance Average to Cricket

In cricket statistics, a batters average is calculated by the amount of runs they have scored divided by their dismissals (i.e. 1000-runs/20-dismissals = Average of 50). The First Chance Average or FCA is determined by the number of Earned Runs divided by their dismissal OR chances. Chances are discretionary but they must be legitimate, i.e. a dropped catch, a legitimate missed stumping or a dismissal from a no-ball (so hitting a ball through the slips when there are no slippers doesn’t count as a chance). Runs coming after a chance are recorded as First Chance runs and are omitted from FCA calculations.

History

The metric was originally developed by myself (Shane Granger) over the 2013-2014 summer with inputs from two very smart colleagues, Adrian Storen and Daryn Webster using the Earned Run Average metric in baseball as a concept model. At the time it was trying to answer some questions about the batting of both Shane Watson and David Warner.

With David Warner giving up three very big chances during that summer the FCA was going to get a mention on the ABC sport show Offsiders BUT David Warner’s run of chances stopped at Johannesburg and the FCA missed its debut.

The First Chance Average for cricket was discarded… Or was it?

During the 2017-2018 Summer I decided to re-invigorate the First Chance Average by improving the metrics to exclude multiple chances and include volatility which answered the questions about David Warner back in 2014. These simple changes made the metric more robust while changing the graphic to look and feel like a standard average allowing for greater clarity. The new datasets used for the Australian tour of South Africa were also a ten-fold increase on what I developed in 2014 and were able to show a team picture rather than focus on anyone individual.

The Example (Adam Voges)

AdamVoges

Adam Voges is a great example because over his short career he only had two chances but they were significant.

In his debut innings at Roseau against the West Indies Adam scored 130*, thus he didn’t qualify for an average as he did not have a dismissal. However his First Chance Average was 57 as he was dropped. Because he had 57 Earned Runs and 73 First Chance Runs his volatility was a very high 56.2%. As his first score was 130* the difference between Earned Runs and First Chance Runs are split between Green/Red in the chart.

In his second innings Adam was dismissed for 37 without a chance, so his score is in blue. His Standard Average is now 167, (167 runs with one dismissal) while his First Chance Average is now 47 (94 runs with two dismissals). His volatility dropped to 43.7%.

In his third innings Adam was dismissed for 31 without a chance, so his score is in blue. His Standard Average is now 99, (198 runs with two dismissals) while his First Chance Average is now 41.67 (125 runs with three dismissals) His volatility continues to decrease to 36.9%.

By the time Adam finished his short career he had just two chances but the difference between his Standard Average and First Chance Average was reasonably significant. To answer this question I introduced volatility, which is a measurement to see whether a batter First Chance Runs are increasing or decreasing. In the end Adam Voges volatility was decreasing but so was his Standard Average and his last big score was 7 Earned Runs compared to 232 First Chance Runs.

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March 1, 2018

Random Analytica: Australian tour of South Africa – First Chance Average (FCA)

The Australian cricket team are touring South Africa from late February to early April 2018.

For the history of the game a batters average has been calculated on their final score. In 2014 to complement the standard average I developed the First Chance Average (FCA) which looks at what a batters average would look like after they had been dropped OR given a legitimate chance. In the past few weeks I have been improving the metric and putting together my first comprehensive analysis using the Australian touring side of South Africa as a model.

An introduction to the First Chance Average using the test career of Adam Voges can be found here.

Here is a look at the First Chance Averages of the 2018 Australian squad touring South Africa. I’ll be updating the charts as the tour progresses (see UPDATES).

CAMERON BANCROFT 180401_CameronBancroft_Final

PRE-TOUR: Cameron Bancroft commenced the tour with a standard average of 25.57 and under a bit of a cloud with Richard Hinds suggesting that Matt Renshaw might have earned a recall. Prior to South Africa his last score was a duck against England (2018) and in the preceeding eight innings he had not recorded a legitimate chance.

DURBAN: Scores of 5 & 53 with no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 38 & 24. Cameron has now had 12 test innings without giving the opposition a single chance. His FCA continues to remain aligned to his standard average.
CAPE TOWN: A 77 in the first innings which hinted at the possibility of a permanent position. The second innings score of 26 was overshadowed by Cameron’s direct involvement in ball tampering. He was subsequently given a nine-month ban by Cricket Australia and flew home before the fourth test at Johannesburg.

JOE BURNS 180403_JoeBurns

PRE-TOUR: Joe Burns was parachuted into the team at short notice after the ball tampering scandal in Cape Town for the last test. Prior to the Johannesburg test his last test scores were an uninspiring 1 and 0 against South Africa (Hobart, Dec 2016).

JOHANNESBURG: A jet-lagged first innings score of 4. Got in and then got out for 42 in the second. No chances.

PAT CUMMINS 180403_PatCummins

PRE-TOUR: Pat Cummins returns to South Africa (after a long break) with a pretty solid standard average of 27.60 and an FCA of 19.17 (with three chances). Prior to Durban his last score was 24* against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 3 and 26 with no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: A golden duck then 5. No chances
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 4 then a duck. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: A maiden test 50 in the first innings. One in the second. No chances.

PETER HANDSCOMB 180403_PeterHandscomb

PRE-TOUR: Peter Handscomb has been on tour but hasn’t had a chance to bat prior to Johannesburg in any of the three previous tests. During the Ashes he got the opportunity to bat three times and his last score was 12 (Adelaide, 2017).

JOHANNESBURG: A golden duck and 24. No chances.

JOSH HAZELWOOD 180403_JoshHazelwood

PRE-TOUR: Josh Hazelwood started the tour with 274-runs, a standard average of 11.91 and an FCA of 9.39 (with four chances). At the end of the Ashes he had recorded 17-not outs in 40-innings (42.5%). His last score prior to the tour was 1* against England (Melbourne, 2017).

DURBAN: Scores of 2* & 9* with no chances. With those scores he now has 19 not-outs from 42-innings (45.2%).
PORT ELIZABETH: 10* and then 17 in 17-balls. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 10 & 5. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: Scores of 1* & 9*. No chances.

USMAN KHAWAJA 180403_UsmanKhawaja

PRE-TOUR:

Bancroft vs. Renshaw might have been the cricket conversation prior to tour commencing in South Africa but I had a thought that Usman Khawaja might be the batter in trouble.

Usman Khawaja commenced the tour with a healthy standard average of 45.80 but his First Chance Average was a much lower 34.96 after nine-chances. He has scored 1,608 Earned Runs with a volatility of 22.0% which is extremely high. His last score was 171 against England (Sydney, 2018) BUT his 2017 year was very ordinary.

FCA stats for 2017: 129 Earned Runs. Four Chances plus 127 First Chance Runs with a volatility of 49.6%.

One to watch.

DURBAN: Disappointing start with a 14, then 6 in the second innings while reverse sweeping?
PORT ELIZABETH: First innings score of 4 but a tough chance was put down when still on a duck (Earned Runs then = 0). In the second innings Usman grafted out a score of 75 without a chance. Enough done to lock him in for the rest of the tour.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 1 without a chance in both innings. If Usman doesn’t fire at Johannesburg I would find it hard to see how he would tour again with the Australian squad.
JOHANNESBURG: Showed some ticker during the 1^st innings reaching 53 then 7 in the second innings.

NATHAN LYON 180403_NathanLyon

PRE-TOUR: Nathan commenced the tour with standard average of 11.61 and a FCA of 11.14 after just five chances. His pre-tour volatility is a miserly 2.5% which means he looks after his wicket either as a tailender or as the night watchman which he gets promoted to consistently. Prior to South Africa his last score was 29 against England (Melbourne, 2017).

DURBAN: 1^st innings score of 12 after being dropped on two, then a second innings score of two after being dropped on one. Prior to Durban Nathan had not presented a chance to the opposition since he was caught but not given out in Port Elizabeth way back in February 2014.
PORT ELIZABETH: A first innings score of 17 then 5.
CAPE TOWN: Nathan scores 47 in the first innings but was dropped on 32. He then scores a duck in the second innings. Nathan’s new high score is now 47 but his FCA high score remains as 40*.
JOHANNESBURG: A first innings score of 8. Run-out for 9 in the second innings. No chances.

MITCHELL MARSH 180403_MitchellMarsh

PRE-TOUR: Mitchell commenced the tour with standard average of 29.24 and no chances, thus no FCA after 39-innings. Prior to South Africa his last score was 101, his second century against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 96 and 6 with one chance in the 1^st innings, a tough one while on 42.
PORT ELIZABETH: Sick as a dog Mitchell scored 4 in the first innings and then 45 in the second.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 16. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: Mitchell’s mixed bag tour of South Africa continues. A score of 4 in the 1^st innings and a duck in the second.

SHAUN MARSH 180403_ShaunMarsh

PRE-TOUR: Shaun commenced the tour averaging 40.87 (standard) and 29.69 (FCA) after nine chances. It should be noted that his Earned Run volatility is a high 25.8% but that has been reducing as he put together some solid scores during 2017. Prior to South Africa his last score was 156 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Shaun commenced the tour with solid scores of 40 & 33 and no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 24 and 1. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 26 and 0. No chances. Hmnn…
JOHANNESBURG: Shaun got a chance on 15 when Quintin De Kock got stung by a bee when he should have been stumping the batsmen! Went on to add just the single run, out for 16. Just seven in the second innings. No chances.

TIM PAINE 180403_TimPaine

PRE-TOUR: Tim’s chart should be viewed in two parts with four tests in 2010 then a long break to 2017. He commenced the tour averaging 39.92 (standard) and 30.67 (FCA) after two chances in 2010. His high score of 92 came after two drops (0 & 86) thus his FCA high score is his more recent 57. Prior to South Africa his last score was 38* against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 25 & 14.
PORT ELIZABETH: A decent last partnership knock of 36 in the 1^st innings and then 28* in the second.
CAPE TOWN: One of the few highlights of the tour has been Tim Paine’s lower order batting. Scores of 34* and 9* without a chance. His solid batting, keeping and seniority are all factors in Tim being promoted to captain as Steve Smith and David Warner are stood down over the ball tampering incident.
JOHANNESBURG: Tim Paine with a fractured thumb gets 62 after being dropped by Faf de Plessis on 48 in the first innings. 7 in the second innings. Interesting First Chance stat here. Tim Paine has four half-centuries and three chances. If those chances had all been taken he would only have one half-century.

MATT RENSHAW 180403_MattRenshaw

PRE-TOUR: Matt Renshaw was finishing up a fantastic domestic season for Queensland and was given the call-up while he was still scoring his unbeaten 81* against Tasmania in the Sheffield Shield final. He didn’t play in the Ashes after being dropped after the Bangladesh tour where he scored 4 and 22 (Chittagong, 2017).
JOHANNESBURG: Unfortunately, his domestic form deserted him in the final test. Scored 8 then 5. Was dropped by Bavuma on 2 in the second innings. Jet-lag could have been a factor.

STEVE SMITH

PRE-TOUR: Steve Smith is the real deal. He commenced the tour with an impressive standard average of 63.76 and a FCA of 54.67 (with 19-chances). Prior to South Africa his last score was 83 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 56 and 38 including a tough chance in the 1^st innings when he was 47.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 25 and 11. Interestingly his scores since Melbourne without the FCA are in an almost perfect decline, that is 102*; 83, 56, 38, 25 & 11.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 7. No chances. Steve Smith is stood down as the captain during the test over a ball tampering incident. In addition he is given a one-match ban by the ICC and a 12-month ban by Cricket Australia. He returned home before the Johannesburg test.

MITCHELL STARC 180326_MitchellStarc

PRE-TOUR: Mitchell Starc is the big hitting bowler who can bat on occassion. He commenced the tour with a standard average of 23.15 and a FCA of 18.78 after 9-chances. Prior to South Africa his last score was 11 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 35 and 7. No chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 8 and 1. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 2 and 7. No chances.

DAVID WARNER 180326_DavidWarner

PRE-TOUR: David Warner commenced the tour with impressive averages of 48.78 (standard) and 40.61 (FCA) with 23-chances to-date. He has scored 989 first chance runs (15.9%) which is high but reflective of the openers position he has held for the majority of his test career. Prior to South Africa his last score was 56 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Solid start with scores of 53 & 28 and no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: 63 in the first innings (and was looking in good shape too) then 13. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: First innings score of 30. Second innings score of 32 with a missed stumping chance on 31. David is also caught up in the ball tampering incident and is stood down as Vice Captain of the team during the third test. He is subsequently given a 12-month ban by Cricket Australia and returns home before the Johannesburg test.

UPDATES

1/03/2018: (1^st Session) Added Cameron Bancroft (5). (2nd Session) – Added Steve Smith (56)
2/03/2018: (1^st Session) Added Pat Cummins (3). (2nd Session) Added Josh Hazelwood (2*).
5/03/2018: Updated Cameron Bancroft (53); Smith (38); Cummins (26) & Josh Hazelwood (9*). Added Mitchell Marsh (96 & 6).
6/03/2018: Added David Warner (51 & 28).
7/03/2018: Updated charts to include NO* data. Added Usman Khawaja (14 & 6).
9/03/2018: Added Shaun Marsh (40 & 33). Updated Bancroft (38); Khawaja (FC-0/4); Warner (63); Smith (25); S. Marsh (24); M. Marsh (4); Cummins (0) & Hazelwood (10*).
10/03/2018: Updated charts to include a volatility direction. Added Tim Paine (25, 14 & 36).
11/03/2018: Added Mitchell Starc (35, 7 & 8).
12/03/2018: Updated 2^nd Innings scores including Warner (13); Bancroft (24); Smith (11); S. Marsh (1) & Khawaja (75). Added Nathan Lyon (12, 2 & 17). Updated 2^nd innings scores of M. Marsh (45); Cummins (5); Lyon (5); Hazelwood (17) & Paine (28*).
23/03/2018: Updated 1^st innings scores to lunch including Warner (30) & Khawaja (5). Updated 1^st innings scores to tea including Smith (5); S. Marsh (26) & Bancroft (77). Updated 1st innings scores to stumps on Day 2 including M. Marsh (5); Cummins (4); Starc (2) & Lyon (47).
25/03/2018: Updated the final 1^st innings scores including Hazelwood (10) & Paine (34*).
26/03/2018: Updated the entire second innings including Bancroft (26); Warner (32); Khawaja (1); S. Marsh (0); Smith (7); M. Marsh (16); Cummins (0); Starc (7); Lyon (0); Hazelwood (5) & Paine (9*).
1/04/2018: Updates from the Johannesburg test, Day 2. Added Joe Burns (4); Peter Handscomb (0) and Matt Renshaw (8). Updates for M. Marsh (4); S. Marsh (16) and Khawaja (53).
2/04/2018: Updates from the Johannesburg test, Day 3. Updates for Cummings (50); Lyon (8) and Paine (62). Note: Chadd Sayers was out for a duck in his debut innings so I haven’t added him at this stage.
3/04/2018: Updates from Johannesburg, Day 4. Renshaw (5); Khawaja (7) and Burns (42). Updates from Day 5. S. Marsh (7); M. Marsh (0); Cummins (1); Paine (7); Lyon (9) and Hazlewood (9*). No updates for Sayers still as he was out for a duck.

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March 6, 2014

Random Analytics: Shane Watson First Chance Average (to Cape Town 2013/14)

Shane Watson, who debuted for Australia back in 2005, has just returned to the Australian team for the last test at Newlands, Cape Town. He scored a quick-fire 25 in the second innings but as was reported via the ABC he had to bowl at training prior to re-admission back to the team. Some of the reasoning behind the bowling test might be his batting average (which currently stands at 36.26) but a closer look at his First Chance Average might explain more.

The First Chance Average (FCA) is something that I have recently developed for use in Test cricket and is loosely based off the Earned Run Average statistics utilised in baseball. The FCA is calculated using the score the batsman would have got if a legitimate chance had been taken by the opposing team. Legitimate chances include dropped catches and missed stumping’s (at this stage).

Let’s look at Shane Watson’s First Chance statistics.

Watson’s standard Test average is currently 36.26 after a 40 and a 25 at Newlands, South Africa) versus his FCA which sits at 27.76 (-8.49).

Special Note: My FCA calculation for Watson is out by up to 31-runs as he was dropped by Danish Kaneira on debut. Unfortunately the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ESPN and Dawn.com didn’t record his score at the time just stating that he was given a chance. I even reached out to Peter English one of the ESPN commentators who were there on the day but unfortunately he couldn’t remember.

Now a look at Watson’s First Chance Deviation (FCD) and Chances.

The FCD (in blue) is the percentile of First Chance Deviation runs against the total Test Runs scored by a batsman.

Shane Watson has currently scored 3,408 runs but would have scored 743 less if opposing teams had of taken his offered chances given him a current FCD of between 21.8 – 22.7% (if you add on a potential 31 additional runs for this first drop which no one noted). His career FCD low was recorded during the West Indies tour of Australia in 2009 (5.1 – 10.0%) and FCD career high was during the India tour of 2010 (28.5 – 30.7%)

The chances that I have been able to record are in red. Watson has had an Average Chance (AC) high of 1.0000 (one chance every innings) recorded in his first test during the Pakistan tour of Australia in 2005 and an AC low 0.1053 (one chance in almost every ten innings) recorded during the West Indies tour or Australia in 2009.

Finally a look at Shane Watson’s Test batting averages.

I think Shane Watson’s batting career can be summed up by his overall statistics if you consider him an all-rounder. His Test average is currently 36.26 as compared to Jacques Kallis who finished up with 55.37. If you look at his First Chance Average that reduces to just 27.76 with his first non-chance century being scored in Kennington in August 2013 almost eight years after he debuted (he was famously dropped for 99 (120*) against Pakistan in Melbourne for then dropped on 0 (126) against India in Mohali).

FINAL THOUGHTS

I was surprised by the traditional batting average differential between Jacques Kallis (who I consider the best all-rounder of recent times) and Shane Watson. If you consider his FCA then you would have to be concerned about his Test longevity.

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February 25, 2014

Random Analytics: David Warner First Chance Average (to 24 Feb 2014)

Note: I first published this blog using the acronym Earned Run Average (ERA) and Earned Run Differential (ERD). I have subsequently amended the acronyms to First Chance Average (FCA) and First Chance Differential (FCD). See: Random Analytics: Shane Watson First Chance Average (to Cape Town 2013/14) for the detail.

David Warner’s recent form has been fantastic. Two centuries plus two half centuries in the Australian leg of the Ashes and one century plus two half centuries in the first two tests in South Africa are a good return.

However I haven’t been completely convinced that Warner is in the best of form and while discussing the subject over a beer a mate of mine suggested using a Moneyball metric to test the theory.

I could be wrong but here might be a cricket first, looking at David Warner’s Test Earned Run Average statistics (and thanks to Daryn Webster for the suggestion and Adrian Storen for the sanity check).

First chart looks at Warners standard Test average (currently 42.88 after a 70 and a 66 at Port Elizabeth, South Africa) versus his Earned Run Average which sits at 34.92 (-7.96).

The Earned Run Average (ERA) is calculated using the score he would have got if a legitimate chance had been taken by the opposing team. In this case I’ve only had to consider dropped catches and missed stumping’s as legitimate chances but I could foresee a missed referral being added in the future. As an example in the 2^nd Innings at Port Elizabeth, Warner was put down by Duminy in the 16^th over on 36. Thus although he scored 66 for the match his Earned Runs were just 36.

The next chart looks at Warners standard Test average for the Australian and South African summer series. Although Warner has had an outstanding summer with the bat his average over seven tests stands at 60.46 yet his ERA is a much lower 41.00 (-19.46).

The final chart looks at two datasets.

The first (in blue) is the Earned Run Deviation (ERD) which for Warner has increased from a career low of 8.8% at the start of summer to now hit a career high of 18.6%.

The Earned Run Deviation (ERA) is calculated 1/Total Test Runs x Earned Run Deviation. In Warner’s case he has currently scored 2,187 runs but would have scored 406 less if opposing teams had of taken his offered chances.

The second dataset (in red) are the chances that David Warner has been given.

On the positive side his twelve chances have a first chance average of 33 but a multiple chance of 38.7, thus demonstrating he doesn’t throw away his wicket early. On the negative side:

He has had 2/3^rd (8/12) of all his chances in the last two series;
His Average Chances (AC) over his career was 0.27 (a chance every fourth innings). Over the recent summer this has doubled to 0.57 (a chance every second innings);
His summer 2013/2014 Earned Run Deviation is 32.2%.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Australia’s coach, Darren Lehmann, when asked if Warner was too reckless has recently stated “That’s just the way he is, and we’re very comfortable with that“.

Warner’s current form is excellent so any coach would be hard pressed to have to drop him.

Saying that Warner’s Earned Run Average, Earned Run Deviation and Average Chances are all moving in the wrong direction. Unless he can turn that around in the short term he might find his luck running out.

UPDATES

6 Mar 2014: Updated title to First Chance Average and added note plus link to Shane Watson’s FCA.

Category: Sport