Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Category: War

Random Analytica: Ukraine. Russian Losses (May 2022)

Updated with data as at 17th May 2022.

It’s Victory Day in Moscow this month and Russia is facing serious setbacks in its war against Ukraine. So, for the month of May 2022, I’m tracking Russian combat losses. Specifically, troops, tanks, Armoured Personnel Carriers, artillery systems and Multi Launch Rocket System losses.

At the end of April, the Ministry of Defence, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 23,200 troops. As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 27,900 troops (+4,700 this month averaging approximately 276 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition. Pick up of Russian casualties since late August (200+ 26/04 – 8/05). Ukrainians started reported in units of 50 on the 9th May (with 150-dead).

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 1,008 tanks. As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 1,235 tanks (+227 this month averaging approximately 13 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition. The Ukrainians were reporting 10+ Russians tanks destroyed for 15-consecutive days until the 8th May (when only eight were reported). The numbers over the last week have been less that the highs in late April and early May.

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 2,445 Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs). As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 3,009 Armoured Personnel Carriers (+564 this month averaging approximately 33 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition. From the 17th April through to 11th May the Ukrainians are saying they have knocked out a minimum of 20 APCs per day. 25-days straight!

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 436 artillery pieces/systems. As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 578 artillery pieces/systems (+142 this month averaging approximately 8 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition of artillery systems. A big day of losses reported on the 16th May. Would be an interesting backstory.

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 151 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 198 MLRS (+47 this month averaging approximately 3 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition with a big loss on the 3rd May.

 

Slava Ukraini.

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Random Analytica: Ukraine. Russian Combat Losses estimated at 23,200

I fondly remember having an interesting discussion with another Veteran mate of mine (Vietnam era) who told me that Putin was the smartest card player he had ever seen. As he told me “Putin always seems to be beating guys with a pair of twos. Every time!”.

Hat-tip Bob, you know who you are. They called his bluff.

Russia is losing a lot of troops in Ukraine. Russian won’t discuss numbers but there is some anecdotal data around that suggests the number of Russian dead in the first two months of the war is over 20,000. The Ministry of Defence, Ukraine is estimating that the number of Russian combat losses today hit 23,200. I looked at the attrition rate for Russian combat troops since the Ukraine Military commenced daily updates on the 3rd April 2022.

Short analysis. Terrible strategic tactics by Russia. Another Georgia but on a bigger scale. Terrible tactics by Russia on the ground. Combat dead equals 10% of everyone deployed on 24th February. That means every Russian soldier who deployed basically knows someone who is dead or injured (in just two months of war). Imagine that. The morale on the ground must be absolutely smashed.

I trained for WWIII. Watching it live is surreal. Stay safe.

Slava Ukraini

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Random Analytica: Guantanamo Detainees 2009 – 2018

Ian Bremmer, the President of the Eurasia Group sent out an interesting tweet yesterday which highlighted the amount of detainees held by the US Military at Guantanamo Bay since 2009. Interestingly there were 214 detainees held at the prison in 2009 when then President Obama ordered the facility closed. Today there are still 41 detainees including Hambali who is accused of orchestrating the 2002 Bali Bombings and has still not faced trial.

GuantanamoDetainees2018

The New York Times has an excellent interactive project site with all the details and is well-worth a look. The Guantanamo Docket. Overview:

About the Project

The Guantánamo Docket is an interactive database of documents and analysis from The New York Times about the roughly 780 men who have been detained at Guantánamo as enemy combatants since January 2002.

The Times has reviewed thousands of pages of government documents released in recent years, as well as court records and news media reports from around the world. The Times will update the database with ongoing research.

There are three types of documents in the database:

Combatant Status Review Tribunals

The database includes Pentagon documents related to the Combatant Status Review Tribunals, military hearings created in response to a 2004 decision by the United States Supreme Court to judge whether prisoners at Guantánamo were properly designated as enemy combatants and subject to indefinite detention. The hearings took place from July 2004 to March 2005.

Administrative Review Boards

The database also includes documents from subsequent Administrative Review Boards, panels of military officers conducting annual hearings to determine whether the detainees remain a threat to the United States or its allies.

These documents, along with the documents related to the Combatant Status Review Tribunals, were selected for public disclosure by the U.S. Defense Department in 2006 in response to a lawsuit brought under the Freedom of Information Act by The Associated Press.

Joint Task Force Assessments

The database also includes a selection of classified documents from the Guantánamo Joint Task Force, part of a huge trove of secret documents leaked last year to the anti-secrecy organization WikiLeaks. They were made available to The Times by another source on the condition of anonymity. The files contain the government’s assessment of the dangers the individuals represent. The files are dated from February 2002 to January 2009, and some of the information may have been superseded by later, still undisclosed assessments made during the Obama administration or by more highly classified documents.

The documents contain the Defense Department’s assessments of the detainees, some of which have been challenged in federal court, and in some of the cases lower court judges have ruled against evidence presented by the government. Those cases have been appealed.

In June 2013, the Justice Department released a list showing who of the remaining Guantánamo detainees has been recommended for transfer, prosecution or continued detention without trial. The list, released under the Freedom of Information Act, represents the final recommendations of a task force of national-security agencies President Obama put together in 2009 as part of his unfulfilled pledge to close the prison within a year. The group issued a report in early 2010, but its individual recommendations were not included in that document.

Lastly, a copy of the tweet by Ian Bremmer which kicked off the idea for the infographic.

180201_Tweet_IanBremmer_Guantanamo

UPDATES

13 Feb 2018: Amended first paragraph to include Hambali story.