Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Tag: Australia

Random Analytica: Australia COVID-19 cases by day

Here is a look at the total Australian cases by day since the first known case which presented on the 25th January 2020.

As at 6.00am on the 6th April 2020, there have been 5,744 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia, including 36-deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 0.63%.

200406_Chart_CasesByDay_Australia

Key Dates:

28th March: Travel restrictions imposed. All travellers entering Australia must undergo 14-days of isolation.
13th March: Tom Hanks and Peter Dutton confirmed as having COVID-19. Measures to prevent spread tightened including social distancing measures.
18th February: Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) launched.

Table: Total Cases by State

200406_Table_TotalCases_Australia

Random Analytica: NSW COVID-19 cases by age (to 25th March 2020)

NSW COVID-19 cases hit 1,029 today. I was interested enough to have a quick look into the NSW Health’s excellent web-page. Although they supply a lot of data and charts I couldn’t see a ‘bee hive’ graphic or the age pyramid. Given NSW has just topped 1,000 cases I thought it might be worthwhile doing the chart on their behalf.

My big take-outs from looking at the chart is the uniformity of cases from ages 20 – 29 to 60 – 69 for both men and women. That’s your core working age cohort. That’s when most people travel for work and pleasure. Looks like this disease will predominately target workers in its first wave.

Second takeout. There are just two children aged 0 -9 yet eleven people aged 90 or more. Children obviously less likely to present with COVID-19. I’ll let better minds than mine figure that one out.

Chart below: NSW Age Pyramid of NSW COVID-19 cases to the 25th March 2020 (n = 1,029).

200325_Chart_NSWxAge

Source: NSW Health

200325_Screenshot_NSWHealth

Random Analytica: Australian Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by calendar week

The daily COVID-19 numbers are escalating quickly. If you think the daily numbers are worrisome take a step back and consider the weekly new case numbers.

In the past week the new cases increased almost five-fold.

Chart below: Australian cases by week. My chart time period commences from Monday 20th January 2020 with the first confirmed COVID-19 presentation on the 25th January.

200324_Table_AUSStatesWkNo

Random Analytica: Australian Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by day (to the end March 2020)

Here is a look at the Australian cases by day since the first known case which presented on the 25th January 2020.

As at 6.30am on the 31st March 2020, there have been 4,359 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia, including 18-deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 0.41%.

200331_Chart_AUSCasesByDay_FINAL

Via the Australian Department of Health. Coronavirus (COVID-19) health alert. Notes with a table detailing cases by location:

As at 6:30am on 31 March 2020, there have been 4,359 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 266 new cases since 6:30am yesterday.

Of the 4,359 confirmed cases in Australia, 18 have died from COVID-19. More than 230,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.

200331_Table_AUSStatesCaseNo_FINAL

* Note that under National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System reporting requirements, cases are reported based on their Australian jurisdiction of residence rather than where they were detected. For example, a case reported previously in the NT in a NSW resident is counted in the national figures as a NSW case.

** Includes Diamond Princess repatriation cases: QLD (3), SA (1), VIC (4), WA (2, including 1 death)

22. Mefloquine Dispatches: Mil Mi-24, 27th March 1997

Cabinet papers are a source that I have been meaning to research.

Using 1998/99 cabinet papers Andrew Probyn from the Australian Broadcasting Commission has put together this piece on the fate of the Russian gunships owned by the Sandline mercenaries that we might have faced if we had of been deployed on the 22nd March 1997. Secrets of how Russian attack helicopters came to Australia revealed 20 years later. Extract:

The $50 million deal, signed in January 1997 to the horror of the then Howard government, would have seen foreign mercenaries flown in to destroy the Bougainville rebellion, using second-hand military equipment.

But two months later, on March 27, 1997, Australia agreed to a request from the PNG government to accept custody of the gear bought by PNG from Sandline.

“The PNG government was concerned about the delivery of the equipment to PNG in the uncertain political circumstance that prevailed at the time,” then defence minister John Moore wrote in his confidential cabinet submission.

At the time of the controversial purchase the PNG armed forces had a helicopter fleet consisting of five Bell UH-1 Iroquois of which only one was serviceable.

It also reaffirms an important date for me. I remember being stood down after three-days, which would have been the 24th March 1997. The PNG Prime Minister (Chan) had left parliament due to massive protests to his rule during those three days. The Australian Government then agreed to take the Russian helicopters (2x Mil Mi-24 and 2x Mi-8 transports) on the 27th March 1997 as the PNG Parliament began to sort out the mess.

There was also a cache of other fixed wing aircraft that Sandline had purchased and the PNG government kept but were never used in combat.

I now wonder what happened to those planes?

Mil Mi-24 -2

Picture: The Drive

 

If you or someone you know needs help, please phone Lifeline on 131 114, Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800, Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636 or Open Arms on 1800 011 046.

21. Mefloquine Dispatches: Mindfulness, 5th December 2019

We sit across from each other. A small coffee table and my phone separate us. My psychologist will be helping me make this difficult call. I have spent the best part of a year working towards this point. I’m emotionally attached to this phone-call.

Today we are using a combination of mindfulness and a safe-place to ensure I stay calm. We reinforce my safe space with Eye Movement Desensitization and Reprocessing (EMDR) therapy.

I make the call.

The conversation takes approximately 10-minutes. For me I am relating an incident that occurred almost 23-years ago. Yet it feels like it was just months previously. That’s just the amnesia. I go through the details of the incident. I get an acknowledgement and a contact person to reach out to.

We finalise the call and move over to the coffee machine so I can regather.

The emotion and the adrenaline have started to kick in. My jaw tightens. As does my chest. My voice wavers. My hands start to shake. My psychologist picks up on this straight away. He wants to bring me back down immediately.

We return to our chairs.

“I’ve got this” I say.

I close my eyes. I control my breathing which has a ragged edge to it. I imagine my safe-place. I focus entirely on my breathing.

I take an initial deep breath.

I focus on my safe-place.

A second deep breath.

Safe-place.

A third deeper breath.

I open my eyes.

I look at my psychologist. I grin. My jaw has relaxed. My shaking has disappeared. My breathing has normalised.

It took less than a minute. Rather than kick-off I am calm. We are both impressed by my progress. Just weeks before I would have been raging.

In the coming months there will be more difficult phone calls. Difficult situations. Chance encounters which I cannot control.

Practicing mindfulness is not only helping me cope with old trauma and new memories it is allowing me to operate in the real world.

One breath at a time.

 

If you or someone you know needs help, please phone Lifeline on 131 114, Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800, Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636 or Open Arms on 1800 011 046.

20. Mefloquine Dispatches: 1800 MEFLOQUINE, 10th May 2019

I am at the RSL sub-branch. We sit in the small office, my Advocate and I awaiting our coffees from the café next door. We chat about things that are going on in our lives. It is one of our little rituals.

The coffees arrive.

L* (my Advocate) thinks we should ring the 1800-MEFLOQUINE number today before we put in any paperwork. Mefloquine, unlike other defence related injuries has its own helpline.

I don’t handle calls to the DVA very well but L* is there to do the talking so I agree.

We call 1800-MEFLOQUINE.

The young lady who answers the phone is professional, personable, helpful but doesn’t know anything about mefloquine.

L* asks if we have a claim that is mefloquine related is there a fast-track process and is there someone available to talk us through it.

We are told that the 1800-MEFLOQUINE number is now going through to the main contact line and there are no specialists available to talk to. It seems the call-line is about to be  archived due to a lack of need.

Another frustration. L* and I put some of the paperwork through anyway. Hopefully we can get it in time to be amongst the Veterans receiving the anti-malarial health checks which we are told by the Minister will be available in July.

Several frustrating months later I am happy to report that the 1800-MEFLOQUINE number is back up and running. Also there is another commitment to the anti-malarial health checks.

Not in July 2019 as promised.

In 2020.

That aside, we are starting to make some progress. I’ll be ringing 1800-MEFLOQUINE this Thursday with a witness to formally report mefloquine exposure on Operation BARITONE..

Let’s see how they go the second time around.

191201_iLetter_DChester_Pg1of2191201_iLetter_DChester_Pg2of2

 

If you or someone you know needs help, please phone Lifeline on 131 114, Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800, Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636 or Open Arms on 1800 011 046.

18. Mefloquine Dispatches: Royal Commission, 2020

According to N* when I first worked out what happened to me back in 1997 I was in shock for weeks.

It took me just a few hours on a lazy afternoon in February to work it all out. On a white board at the local RSL sub-branch listening to Enigma. I called it my ‘Wacky Board’. I do more memory work that night. Found some evidence to back the memories. Get new memories.

I do the due diligence and the research. Worked out the timelines, identified the opportunities missed. Even found the exposure documented in legacy Red Cross records.

By the time I was reasonably sure that at least a company of us had been exposed I was getting very sick. My rage had dissipated. Replaced by numbness. Numbness was replaced by bitterness, grief and anger. Anger then became psychosis.

I got myself admitted three days later. As I sat in the mental health unit I waited for someone from the Army to come and interview me. Times, dates, places. Whatever I could remember.

Why me, I said? Why the fuck was it left to me to clean this up? It’s not like I owed the Army any favours. They had done a pretty good job of throwing me under a bus in the late 90s. Then the DVA piled on. It was a free-for-all.

As I await a visit from someone in authority I gather more evidence.

Waiting, waiting, waiting …

No one came to visit me in hospital in March.

Or April.

I make myself sick filling out DVA paperwork in May/June. My two claims are filled with evidence supporting my mefloquine exposure.

Hurry up and wait some more …

June, July and August go by.

By September I think the DVA and the Army have forgotten me. My suspicions are confirmed when I ring my Social Worker at the DVA and she can’t even remember my name.

This should have been sorted months ago. I go bezerk again. Wind up back in hospital.

When I get out I try to get the message out without filters.

I try the fourth estate again. They are too busy getting raided by the AFP to want to hear my complex little story.

I tell the Minister. He doesn’t even bother to get back to me.

I write laments to my past to raise an eyebrow. Nothing. They start angry but as the months go by they soften. I soften. If any blame is due on this strategy it is because of my lack of writing ability, not about the story itself.

It’s now November.

The DVA get back to me with a rehabilitation plan. It doesn’t mention mefloquine. 

In desperation I reach out to the Senate Committee that was supposed to investigate this back in 2018. They have limited powers now but will get back to me. When they do get back to me they encourage me to follow-up on my suppressed FOI requests as they too await a response from the DVA.

I’ve given it my all this year to try and get the message out. To the infantry company. To my two mates who surely boarded those planes with me back in 97. I wish I knew who it was but I cannot remember. 

It doesn’t matter anymore. This matter needs to be included in the Royal Commission into Veteran Suicides.

I’m so tired of excuses.

It shouldn’t have been this hard.

 

If you or someone you know needs help, please phone Lifeline on 131 114, Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800, Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636 or Open Arms on 1800 011 046.

15. Mefloquine Dispatches: Suicide Prevention, early 1990

It is early 1990. I’m not sure of the exact date but I’m a member of a platoon of freshly minted recruits at 1RTB, the 1st Recruit Training Battalion.

It is starting to get cold because we are shivering through our ‘greens’. A ‘Secco’ or Section Commander calls out the names in the platoon. We yell out our presence. He marks his role.

We have been running PT for a while by this stage. The blokes who have made it this far don’t fall out on a whim or because they aren’t fit enough. We don’t stumble over each other as much as we try to run in step. Our fitness is steadily improving.

We have our webbing on. Today we will be introduced to the old art of bayonet fighting. SLR’s. Self Loading Rifles with pointy knives at the end. We are quietly excited.

We start marching. After a time we start running in step. As we are running along one of the section commanders points over to a set of trees.

“Gentlemen, over there is a tree. In that tree a recruit decided to hang himself. Let me be very clear. You are not to hang yourself. Hanging yourself will create a shit-storm of paperwork. I’ll have to fill out paperwork, Sergeant K* will have to fill out paperwork, the officers will have to fill out paperwork…”

He has run forward of the platoon and then spun around so as to face the running soldiers.

“I fucking hate paperwork”.

We all look at the tree. We look at the Corporal. He is grinning.

“So don’t fucking hang yourself”… he pauses … “Yes, Corporal” he puts it to us like a question that must be answered. It is not a request.

We scream out “Yes, Corporal”.

It is not loud enough. “I CAN’T FUCKING HEAR YOU LOT” the Corporal yells back at us. His face has turned red.

“YES, CORPORAL”. Our scream echoes across the training grounds.

“BETTER”. He turns around and gets back into step near the front of the platoon.

The tree falls behind us.

It is 1990 and we have just been given our first suicide prevention lesson by the Australian Army.

Twenty-four years later I will tie my own noose. But that is in the future.

 

I don’t usually sign petitions. I’m not a big fan of Royal Commissions either. That said I fully support a Royal Commission into Veteran Suicides.

It’s time.

You too can sign here at change.org.

191106_Picture_SuicidePetition

Image: change.org

 

If you or someone you know needs help, please phone Lifeline on 131 114, Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800, Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636 or Open Arms on 1800 011 046.

14. Mefloquine Dispatches: SGADF, 26th September 2019

It took me seven months to prove that I had probably been given Mefloquine back in 1997. Good enough for the SGADF anyways.

Not bad considering when I first requested information from Army Headquarters about my involvement in that Operation I was told I was never on it.

It has come at a real cost.

My health has noticeably deteriorated.

Oh, and I went insane twice. With another two months in the year to go this is a worrisome trend. N* has told me I only really kick-off every twelve to eighteen months. We started dating in 1999. I’m putting it down to the DVA process. Hoping it will get easier in the second year of dealing with them again.

On that note I signed off on my DVA approved rehabilitation plan today. It stipulates Bi-Polar, PTSD and Psoriasis as medical conditions.

I haven’t been diagnosed with Bi-Polar. Nor schizophrenia as yet. Both Repatriation Medical Authority accepted conditions of mefloquine exposure. I certainly haven’t claimed for them.

On the other hand, there is no mention of mefloquine even after the SGADF signed off on it.

One more hill, Digger… One more hill

 

 

If you or someone you know needs help, please phone Lifeline on 131 114, Kids Helpline on 1800 55 1800, Beyond Blue on 1300 224 636 or Open Arms on 1800 011 046.