Random Analytica

Charts, Infographics & Analytics. No Spinning the Data. No Juking the Stats

Tag: Australia

Random Analytica: Centrelink Call Wait Times 2006 – 2017

It seems almost heretical now but just a decade ago you could call Centrelink and get your phone answered in less than 2 ½-minutes (*most of the time). In fact, data collected by Centrelink in 2006-2007 showed that the average wait time of callers was just 1-minute and 50-seconds and that 71.6% of all calls were answered in the first 150-seconds.

Then something happened in 2008 to the way Centrelink reported its data.

Centrelink felt that it was so good at answering your calls within a few minutes it abandoned its Average Speed of Answer (ASA) reporting metric and amended its Call Answered from 150-second to 180-seconds.

For those too young to remember back in 2007 the iPhone only came on the scene in June 2007, so most people would call a government department via a landline (sometimes sneakily from work) or go to visit the relevant Government department and talk to a real person in their lunch-hour or on their day-off, especially if they worked part-time.

How did that work out for Centrelink?

ASA

The funky Calls Answered in 180-seconds metric was abandoned just one year after it was implemented and the Department of Human Services completely abandoned the 150-seconds metric from 2010/11. I suspect when more than 50% of calls don’t get answered within that timeframe you either need to review your service model OR you change your metric.

In the meantime the Average Speed of Answer (ASA) wait time blew-out from 1-minute and 50-seconds in 2007 to 15-minutes and 44-seconds in 2017. That’s an official 8.5x increase!

I’m sceptical about the Department answering a call within 16-minutes.

I had to ring Centrelink today. Everyone I talked too who has to deal with the Department told me to ring early but be prepared to wait a long-time.

I rang early (8.05am) and I was prepared to wait putting aside contract work for the express purpose of updating my details.

My call was answered an hour later (plenty of time to do the above chart)…

Phone

Advertisements

Random Analytica: Introducing the First Chance Average to Cricket

In cricket statistics, a batters average is calculated by the amount of runs they have scored divided by their dismissals (i.e. 1000-runs/20-dismissals = Average of 50). The First Chance Average or FCA is determined by the number of Earned Runs divided by their dismissal OR chances. Chances are discretionary but they must be legitimate, i.e. a dropped catch, a legitimate missed stumping or a dismissal from a no-ball (so hitting a ball through the slips when there are no slippers doesn’t count as a chance). Runs coming after a chance are recorded as First Chance runs and are omitted from FCA calculations.

History

The metric was originally developed by myself (Shane Granger) over the 2013-2014 summer with inputs from two very smart colleagues, Adrian Storen and Daryn Webster using the Earned Run Average metric in baseball as a concept model. At the time it was trying to answer some questions about the batting of both Shane Watson and David Warner.

With David Warner giving up three very big chances during that summer the FCA was going to get a mention on the ABC sport show Offsiders BUT David Warner’s run of chances stopped at Johannesburg and the FCA missed its debut.

The First Chance Average for cricket was discarded… Or was it?

During the 2017-2018 Summer I decided to re-invigorate the First Chance Average by improving the metrics to exclude multiple chances and include volatility which answered the questions about David Warner back in 2014. These simple changes made the metric more robust while changing the graphic to look and feel like a standard average allowing for greater clarity. The new datasets used for the Australian tour of South Africa were also a ten-fold increase on what I developed in 2014 and were able to show a team picture rather than focus on anyone individual.

The Example (Adam Voges)

AdamVoges

Adam Voges is a great example because over his short career he only had two chances but they were significant.

In his debut innings at Roseau against the West Indies Adam scored 130*, thus he didn’t qualify for an average as he did not have a dismissal. However his First Chance Average was 57 as he was dropped. Because he had 57 Earned Runs and 73 First Chance Runs his volatility was a very high 56.2%. As his first score was 130* the difference between Earned Runs and First Chance Runs are split between Green/Red in the chart.

In his second innings Adam was dismissed for 37 without a chance, so his score is in blue. His Standard Average is now 167, (167 runs with one dismissal) while his First Chance Average is now 47 (94 runs with two dismissals). His volatility dropped to 43.7%.

In his third innings Adam was dismissed for 31 without a chance, so his score is in blue. His Standard Average is now 99, (198 runs with two dismissals) while his First Chance Average is now 41.67 (125 runs with three dismissals) His volatility continues to decrease to 36.9%.

By the time Adam finished his short career he had just two chances but the difference between his Standard Average and First Chance Average was reasonably significant. To answer this question I introduced volatility, which is a measurement to see whether a batter First Chance Runs are increasing or decreasing. In the end Adam Voges volatility was decreasing but so was his Standard Average and his last big score was 7 Earned Runs compared to 232 First Chance Runs.

Random Analytica: Australian tour of South Africa – First Chance Average (FCA)

The Australian cricket team are touring South Africa from late February to early April 2018.

For the history of the game a batters average has been calculated on their final score. In 2014 to complement the standard average I developed the First Chance Average (FCA) which looks at what a batters average would look like after they had been dropped OR given a legitimate chance. In the past few weeks I have been improving the metric and putting together my first comprehensive analysis using the Australian touring side of South Africa as a model.

An introduction to the First Chance Average using the test career of Adam Voges can be found here.

Here is a look at the First Chance Averages of the 2018 Australian squad touring South Africa. I’ll be updating the charts as the tour progresses (see UPDATES).

CAMERON BANCROFT180401_CameronBancroft_Final

PRE-TOUR: Cameron Bancroft commenced the tour with a standard average of 25.57 and under a bit of a cloud with Richard Hinds suggesting that Matt Renshaw might have earned a recall. Prior to South Africa his last score was a duck against England (2018) and in the preceeding eight innings he had not recorded a legitimate chance.

DURBAN: Scores of 5 & 53 with no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 38 & 24. Cameron has now had 12 test innings without giving the opposition a single chance. His FCA continues to remain aligned to his standard average.
CAPE TOWN: A 77 in the first innings which hinted at the possibility of a permanent position. The second innings score of 26 was overshadowed by Cameron’s direct involvement in ball tampering. He was subsequently given a nine-month ban by Cricket Australia and flew home before the fourth test at Johannesburg.

JOE BURNS180403_JoeBurns

PRE-TOUR: Joe Burns was parachuted into the team at short notice after the ball tampering scandal in Cape Town for the last test. Prior to the Johannesburg test his last test scores were an uninspiring 1 and 0 against South Africa (Hobart, Dec 2016).

JOHANNESBURG: A jet-lagged first innings score of 4. Got in and then got out for 42 in the second. No chances.

PAT CUMMINS180403_PatCummins

PRE-TOUR: Pat Cummins returns to South Africa (after a long break) with a pretty solid standard average of 27.60 and an FCA of 19.17 (with three chances). Prior to Durban his last score was 24* against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 3 and 26 with no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: A golden duck then 5. No chances
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 4 then a duck. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: A maiden test 50 in the first innings. One in the second. No chances.

PETER HANDSCOMB180403_PeterHandscomb

PRE-TOUR: Peter Handscomb has been on tour but hasn’t had a chance to bat prior to Johannesburg in any of the three previous tests. During the Ashes he got the opportunity to bat three times and his last score was 12 (Adelaide, 2017).

JOHANNESBURG: A golden duck and 24. No chances.

JOSH HAZELWOOD180403_JoshHazelwood

PRE-TOUR: Josh Hazelwood started the tour with 274-runs, a standard average of 11.91 and an FCA of 9.39 (with four chances). At the end of the Ashes he had recorded 17-not outs in 40-innings (42.5%). His last score prior to the tour was 1* against England (Melbourne, 2017).

DURBAN: Scores of 2* & 9* with no chances. With those scores he now has 19 not-outs from 42-innings (45.2%).
PORT ELIZABETH: 10* and then 17 in 17-balls. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 10 & 5. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: Scores of 1* & 9*. No chances.

USMAN KHAWAJA180403_UsmanKhawaja

PRE-TOUR:

Bancroft vs. Renshaw might have been the cricket conversation prior to tour commencing in South Africa but I had a thought that Usman Khawaja might be the batter in trouble.

Usman Khawaja commenced the tour with a healthy standard average of 45.80 but his First Chance Average was a much lower 34.96 after nine-chances. He has scored 1,608 Earned Runs with a volatility of 22.0% which is extremely high. His last score was 171 against England (Sydney, 2018) BUT his 2017 year was very ordinary.

FCA stats for 2017: 129 Earned Runs. Four Chances plus 127 First Chance Runs with a volatility of 49.6%.

One to watch.

DURBAN: Disappointing start with a 14, then 6 in the second innings while reverse sweeping?
PORT ELIZABETH: First innings score of 4 but a tough chance was put down when still on a duck (Earned Runs then = 0). In the second innings Usman grafted out a score of 75 without a chance. Enough done to lock him in for the rest of the tour.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 1 without a chance in both innings. If Usman doesn’t fire at Johannesburg I would find it hard to see how he would tour again with the Australian squad.
JOHANNESBURG: Showed some ticker during the 1st innings reaching 53 then 7 in the second innings.

NATHAN LYON180403_NathanLyon

PRE-TOUR: Nathan commenced the tour with standard average of 11.61 and a FCA of 11.14 after just five chances. His pre-tour volatility is a miserly 2.5% which means he looks after his wicket either as a tailender or as the night watchman which he gets promoted to consistently. Prior to South Africa his last score was 29 against England (Melbourne, 2017).

DURBAN: 1st innings score of 12 after being dropped on two, then a second innings score of two after being dropped on one. Prior to Durban Nathan had not presented a chance to the opposition since he was caught but not given out in Port Elizabeth way back in February 2014.
PORT ELIZABETH: A first innings score of 17 then 5.
CAPE TOWN: Nathan scores 47 in the first innings but was dropped on 32. He then scores a duck in the second innings. Nathan’s new high score is now 47 but his FCA high score remains as 40*.
JOHANNESBURG: A first innings score of 8. Run-out for 9 in the second innings. No chances.

MITCHELL MARSH180403_MitchellMarsh

PRE-TOUR: Mitchell commenced the tour with standard average of 29.24 and no chances, thus no FCA after 39-innings. Prior to South Africa his last score was 101, his second century against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 96 and 6 with one chance in the 1st innings, a tough one while on 42.
PORT ELIZABETH: Sick as a dog Mitchell scored 4 in the first innings and then 45 in the second.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 16. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: Mitchell’s mixed bag tour of South Africa continues. A score of 4 in the 1st innings and a duck in the second.

SHAUN MARSH180403_ShaunMarsh

PRE-TOUR: Shaun commenced the tour averaging 40.87 (standard) and 29.69 (FCA) after nine chances. It should be noted that his Earned Run volatility is a high 25.8% but that has been reducing as he put together some solid scores during 2017. Prior to South Africa his last score was 156 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Shaun commenced the tour with solid scores of 40 & 33 and no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 24 and 1. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 26 and 0. No chances. Hmnn…
JOHANNESBURG: Shaun got a chance on 15 when Quintin De Kock got stung by a bee when he should have been stumping the batsmen! Went on to add just the single run, out for 16. Just seven in the second innings. No chances.

TIM PAINE180403_TimPaine

PRE-TOUR: Tim’s chart should be viewed in two parts with four tests in 2010 then a long break to 2017. He commenced the tour averaging 39.92 (standard) and 30.67 (FCA) after two chances in 2010. His high score of 92 came after two drops (0 & 86) thus his FCA high score is his more recent 57. Prior to South Africa his last score was 38* against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 25 & 14.
PORT ELIZABETH: A decent last partnership knock of 36 in the 1st innings and then 28* in the second.
CAPE TOWN: One of the few highlights of the tour has been Tim Paine’s lower order batting. Scores of 34* and 9* without a chance. His solid batting, keeping and seniority are all factors in Tim being promoted to captain as Steve Smith and David Warner are stood down over the ball tampering incident.
JOHANNESBURG: Tim Paine with a fractured thumb gets 62 after being dropped by Faf de Plessis on 48 in the first innings. 7 in the second innings. Interesting First Chance stat here. Tim Paine has four half-centuries and three chances. If those chances had all been taken he would only have one half-century.

MATT RENSHAW180403_MattRenshaw

PRE-TOUR: Matt Renshaw was finishing up a fantastic domestic season for Queensland and was given the call-up while he was still scoring his unbeaten 81* against Tasmania in the Sheffield Shield final. He didn’t play in the Ashes after being dropped after the Bangladesh tour where he scored 4 and 22 (Chittagong, 2017).
JOHANNESBURG: Unfortunately, his domestic form deserted him in the final test. Scored 8 then 5.  Was dropped by Bavuma on 2 in the second innings. Jet-lag could have been a factor.

STEVE SMITH
180401_SteveSmith_Final

PRE-TOUR: Steve Smith is the real deal. He commenced the tour with an impressive standard average of 63.76 and a FCA of 54.67 (with 19-chances). Prior to South Africa his last score was 83 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 56 and 38 including a tough chance in the 1st innings when he was 47.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 25 and 11. Interestingly his scores since Melbourne without the FCA are in an almost perfect decline, that is 102*; 83, 56, 38, 25 & 11.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 7. No chances. Steve Smith is stood down as the captain during the test over a ball tampering incident. In addition he is given a one-match ban by the ICC and a 12-month ban by Cricket Australia. He returned home before the Johannesburg test.

MITCHELL STARC180326_MitchellStarc

PRE-TOUR: Mitchell Starc is the big hitting bowler who can bat on occassion. He commenced the tour with a standard average of 23.15 and a FCA of 18.78 after 9-chances. Prior to South Africa his last score was 11 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 35 and 7. No chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 8 and 1. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 2 and 7. No chances.

DAVID WARNER180326_DavidWarner

PRE-TOUR: David Warner commenced the tour with impressive averages of 48.78 (standard) and 40.61 (FCA) with 23-chances to-date. He has scored 989 first chance runs (15.9%) which is high but reflective of the openers position he has held for the majority of his test career. Prior to South Africa his last score was 56 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Solid start with scores of 53 & 28 and no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: 63 in the first innings (and was looking in good shape too) then 13. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: First innings score of 30. Second innings score of 32 with a missed stumping chance on 31. David is also caught up in the ball tampering incident and is stood down as Vice Captain of the team during the third test. He is subsequently given a 12-month ban by Cricket Australia and returns home before the Johannesburg test.

 

UPDATES

1/03/2018: (1st Session) Added Cameron Bancroft (5). (2nd Session) – Added Steve Smith (56)
2/03/2018: (1st Session) Added Pat Cummins (3). (2nd Session) Added Josh Hazelwood (2*).
5/03/2018: Updated Cameron Bancroft (53); Smith (38); Cummins (26) & Josh Hazelwood (9*). Added Mitchell Marsh (96 & 6).
6/03/2018: Added David Warner (51 & 28).
7/03/2018: Updated charts to include NO* data. Added Usman Khawaja (14 & 6).
9/03/2018: Added Shaun Marsh (40 & 33). Updated Bancroft (38); Khawaja (FC-0/4); Warner (63); Smith (25); S. Marsh (24); M. Marsh (4); Cummins (0) & Hazelwood (10*).
10/03/2018: Updated charts to include a volatility direction. Added Tim Paine (25, 14 & 36).
11/03/2018: Added Mitchell Starc (35, 7 & 8).
12/03/2018: Updated 2nd Innings scores including Warner (13); Bancroft (24); Smith (11); S. Marsh (1) & Khawaja (75). Added Nathan Lyon (12, 2 & 17). Updated 2nd innings scores of M. Marsh (45); Cummins (5); Lyon (5); Hazelwood (17) & Paine (28*).
23/03/2018: Updated 1st innings scores to lunch including Warner (30) & Khawaja (5). Updated 1st innings scores to tea including Smith (5); S. Marsh (26) & Bancroft (77). Updated 1st innings scores to stumps on Day 2 including M. Marsh (5); Cummins (4); Starc (2) & Lyon (47).
25/03/2018: Updated the final 1st innings scores including Hazelwood (10) & Paine (34*).
26/03/2018: Updated the entire second innings including Bancroft (26); Warner (32); Khawaja (1); S. Marsh (0); Smith (7); M. Marsh (16); Cummins (0); Starc (7); Lyon (0); Hazelwood (5) & Paine (9*).
1/04/2018: Updates from the Johannesburg test, Day 2. Added Joe Burns (4); Peter Handscomb (0) and Matt Renshaw (8). Updates for M. Marsh (4); S. Marsh (16) and Khawaja (53).
2/04/2018: Updates from the Johannesburg test, Day 3. Updates for Cummings (50); Lyon (8) and Paine (62). Note: Chadd Sayers was out for a duck in his debut innings so I haven’t added him at this stage.
3/04/2018: Updates from Johannesburg, Day 4. Renshaw (5); Khawaja (7) and Burns (42). Updates from Day 5. S. Marsh (7); M. Marsh (0); Cummins (1); Paine (7); Lyon (9) and Hazlewood (9*). No updates for Sayers still as he was out for a duck.

Random Analytica: Poor record for top-3 purchases at Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling sales

Almost every year the records for the Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling sales are broken. This year a colt sold for $2,000,000 making it the most expensive purchase in the events history. Money spent increased for the sixth consecutive year; up by approximately $21-million on 2017 and across the entire event overall sales have increased from $75.9-million in 2010 to $180-million this month.

Ok, that’s interesting but how did the big purchases in the past decade fare? I’ve charted the two most expensive horses each year from 2010, then included the next most expensive horse that has broken even in terms of prize money only… (Adding the true cost of horse ownership is just too hard but if you are interested I would recommend reading Cuffelinks: The economic reality of breeding and owning racehorses by Garry Mackrell).

GCMMSales2010~18

2010: Cross Of Gold was the top purchase at $925,000 and although he is still racing in Western Australia as a 9-year old gelding his 71-starts for $225,626 is well short of what connections originally hoped for. The first break-even horse was Hoylonny, who cost $380,000 but won 7-races and earned $469,330 before retiring in 2015. The stand-out horse in the first 20 was Delago Deluxe who was shipped to South Africa, won approx. 1.5M Rand (approx. $160,000) including a Group 1. He has now retired to stud duties back in Australia.

2011: Connections would still not be smiling when they bought Laughing Lad for $1,150,000 with a miserly $8,720 return. Aptly named No Looking Back was the fourth most expensive horse at $500,000 and before a quick-fire career she returned $635,250 and retired in 2014 with a ROI of 27.1%.

2012: Another tough year for buyers of thoroughbreds. Bull Point was the top purchase at $960,000 and he amassed a decent $552,000 in earnings before retiring to stud in 2016. The first break-even horse then was the 16th most expensive horse Centre Pivot who has won eight races, earned connections $718,033 and might chalk up more in the next couple of years.

2013: This was the big year for the Gold Coast Magic Millions Yearling sales when the 61st most expensive horse, Winx was picked up for $230,000. She has currently returned $15.63-million to date. The most expensive horse bought that year was Valentia who cost $1,350,000 and returned $218,800 before retiring to stud duties in 2016. The first break-even horse was another good-thing, 2016 Group 1 Emirates winner Awesome Rock who cost $575,000 (4th most expensive) but won just over $2,000,000 during his career.

2014: Red Knot was the only $1,000,000 horse in 2014 and has currently returned $125,710 without setting the world on fire. At 14th the export Campbell Junior has been winning big in Japan and has so far earned around ¥97,266,000 (approx. $1,100,000 AUD). No stand-outs currently sit between Red Knot & Campbell Junior although all twelve horses are racing.

2015: The top three only. Ready Fire Aim was bought for $1,200,000 and in 2017 won two country NSW races for total prize money of $45,090. The next two big purchases Alter Call (cost $1,050,000) and Pirapala ($850,000) have both won races but their prize money is still sub-$100,000 as they struggle through the grades. Let’s see how they race in 2018.

2016: The top purchase of 2016 was Chauffer at $1,600,000. This horse is looking the goods with $555,250 already in the kitty including a 2nd behind Houtzen at the 2017 Magic Millions 2Y Classic which earned connections $370,000. That said Chauffer still needs to win more than $1,000,000 to become the first top-3 purchase to break-even in a decade. Showtime (4th most expensive at $1,100,000) and Dracarys (5th at $1,000,000) are also showing some early signs of good form.

2017: The only two year old from last year who was purchased for more than a $1-million and is on the radar is Angel having won their maiden at Geelong.

No Looking Back and Awesome Rock, each the 4th most expensive horses in their respective years won more money than they initially cost and were good buys in the end. I find that terribly ironic given my ability to pick 4th places on a regular basis. If you bought into the three most expensive horses over the last decade then you fared poorly with none of the 22-horses returning more than they cost at this stage (with fingers crossed for Chauffer).

Best of luck!

 

 

NOTE: Gamble for the fun of it, not for the money. If it stops being fun… Stop.

If you feel you may be experiencing problems with your gambling, there are services available to assist you.

Gambling Helpline – 1800 858 858 is a free, 24/7 anonymous counselling referral service which operates nationally. Gambling Helpline provides a range of services including individual counselling, self-help options and can assist with referrals to a range of support groups in both metropolitan and regional areas.

Gambling Help Online is a free 24/7 anonymous counselling service which has experienced staff that can assist you in a number of ways and can assist in finding free face-to-face counselling for those affected by a gambling problem either directly or via its network of treatment providers across Australia.

Random Analytics: Australian 44th Parliament Suspensions (the Bronwyn Bishop Era)

Tomorrow, on the first day back from the winter break the Coalition government will sit down and decide who will be the new Speaker of the Parliament after Bronwyn Bishop resigned from the role following revelations that she took a helicopter to a Liberal Party fundraiser at a cost of more than $5,000 to the tax-payer rather than choosing another, cheaper form of transport.

Here is an updated look at the charts for Parliamentary suspension during the Bronwyn Bishop era.

1 - SuspensionsBySittingDay

As Speaker of the Parliament, Bronwyn Bishop officially spent 130-days in the chair and suspended 400 Members of Parliament (the highest total on record) including 18 MPs in a single day (again, the highest on record). 393 (98.3%) of those ejections were from the ALP and seven were from the Coalition. Included in the total were six 94(b) Naming’s where MPs are suspended for 24-hours rather than just the hour as per the 94(a) suspension. They were Mark Dreyfus (twice), Wayne Swan, Ed Husic, Jim Chalmers and Andrew Laming (from the LNP). On the second 94(b) suspension for Mark Dreyfus he was suspended for the rest of the day and then a further three days.

Interestingly, during 2015 Bronwyn Bishop’s suspension average has moderated (as represented by the black line within the chart) but only slightly and it still stayed above 3 for the entire year.

Here’s a look at the Top 12 MPs who were suspended during Bronwyn Bishop’s time as Speaker of the Parliament.

2 - Top12SuspensionByMember

The Member for Wakefield, Nick Champion continues to lead the count at 53 and is currently 12 suspensions ahead of his colleague the Member for Moreton, Graham Perrett (at 41). Coalition Members who have been suspended include Ewen Jones (twice), Michael McCormack, Luke Simpkings and Andrew Nikolic (twice) and Andrew Laming (94b).

A further 27 ALP MPs have been suspended ten times (or less):

Finally, a look at how the Speakers of the Parliament have stacked up in terms of suspensions during their tenure (and no surprises on who tops the list).

3 - SuspensionsBySpeaker

On a final note the Sydney Morning Herald did a very good analysis of the 29th Speaker’s time in office which is worth a read. Bronwyn Bishop’s greatest hits (or misses) as Speaker of the Parliament. Click through for the mosaic of Bronwyn Bishop created using photos of MPs who were suspended from Parliament during her time in the chair.

 

Data Sources

[1] Parliament of Australia. Hansard. Accessed 9 August 2015.

 

Random Analytics: 44th Australian Parliament Suspensions (to cob 2014)

 

We are now into the final week of Parliament for 2014 and the previous week saw a number of records broken. Via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (published 27 November 2014). Bronwyn Bishop suspends 18 MPs from Question Time, breaks Federation-era record. Excerpt:

Federal Parliament has embraced the schoolyard tradition of an “end-of-year muck-up day” setting new standards in misbehaviour. In a raucous Question Time to end Parliament’s penultimate sitting week, the Speaker, Bronwyn Bishop, suspended 18 MPs – all Labor. With a massively depleted front and back bench behind him, a frustrated manager of Opposition business Tony Burke rose to inform the House “18 people in one Question Time is an all-time record since Federation”.

Bishop says claims she picked on Labor MPs ‘pathetic’ She broke the previous one-day record for suspensions which had stood at 12. The Speaker almost racked up 50 suspensions in one week, but fell short at 47. Ms Bishop’s personal total of suspensions for the 44th Parliament stands at 285.

During that week there were some discrepancies in 94(a) suspension counts. On 25 November Hansard detailed nine suspensions while the Sydney Morning Herald reported ten and The Australian reported 12. I put a request for clarification into the Australian Parliament and received a wonderfully detailed response from Assistant Director, Chamber Research Office, Department of the House of Representatives who confirmed 12 suspensions on the day. (Hat tip to the Australian Parliament).

Here is a look at the Standing Order 94(a) and Standing Order 94(b) suspensions for the 44th Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia House of Representatives to the 27th November 2014. It is also my intent to update these charts at the end of the last sitting week for 2014.

1 - SuspensionsBySittingDay_141127

The 44th Parliament of Australia Suspensions per Sitting Day details the total amount of suspensions with breakdowns by political party.

As noted in the ABC story the final day of the second last week was the most suspensions in a single day since Federation (1901). Those named under Standing Order 94(b) have also been noted in red (they are Mark Dreyfus, Wayne Swan and Ed Husic) and the Coalition members ejected have been included under different colours depending on which Party they belong to.

 

2 - SuspensionsByMember_141127_Corrected

The 44th Parliament Suspensions by Member details the top 12 ALP and the four Coalition Members of Parliament to have been suspended thus far.

The Member for Wakefield, Nick Champion continues to lead the count at 36 and is currently 11 suspensions ahead of his colleague the Member for Moreton, Graham Perrett. Ewen Jones, Michael McCormack, Luke Simpkings and Andrew Nikolic from the Coalition have also been suspended.

There have been a further 27 ALP Members suspended seven times or less. They are:

7-Suspensions: Anthony Albanese, Chris Bowen, Warren Snowden & Tim Watts.
6-Suspendions: Catherine King.
5-Suspensions: Jenny Macklin.
4-Suspensions: Tony Burke, Julie Collins, Michael Danby, Joanne Ryan and Matt Thistlethwaite.
3-Suspensions: Lisa Chesters, Tanya Plibersek and Wayne Swan.
2-Suspensions: David Feeney, Joel Fitzgibbon, Michelle Rowland & Kelvin Thomson.

Mark Butler, Jason Clare, Sharon Claydon, Andrew Giles, Jill Hall, Clare O’Neil and Melissa Parke all have one suspension each.

3 - SuspensionsByDoTW_141127

The final chart is Day of the Week for Suspensions.

The obvious data point and the one which is consistently pointed out by the media is that the final day of the sitting week (usually a Thursday) is the most often day where members are ejected. Interestingly, the difference between Wednesday and Thursday was much closer than the anecdotal evidence suggested. In total Mondays had 43 suspensions, Tuesdays 68, Wednesdays 80 and Thursdays 94. If the week commencing 24 November did not occur then it would have been 68/76 for Wednesday/Thursday.

For a bit of fun I split the data between Nick Champion (with 12.6% of all suspensions for the 44th Parliament) and the rest of the House.

 

Data Sources:

[1] Parliament of Australia. Hansard. Accessed 2 December 2014.

 

Updated Charts to Monday, 1st December 2014

* There were no Standing Order 94(a) or 94(b) suspensions on the 1st December 2014

 

 

Random Analytics: Australian Mining Employment (Aug 2014)

Mining continues to play an important part in the overall economy of Australia. For all of the discussion about the sector many people don’t realise that mining only employs 264,400 (source: ABS). This is just a fraction of Australia’s total labour force and even that number is often conflated given that many who work in mining are employed on infrastructure or services activities rather than directly in operations.

Each month I spend some time collating stories from a wide range of industry and media sources to build some analytics around the current state of mining employment in Australia. The month of August 2014 was quieter than previous months when more than 3,000 jobs were lost in June and another 1,000+ in July yet at the end of August we still saw more jobs lost than gained.

Here are the charts for Australian Mining Employment through to the end of August 2014.

1 - MiningJobsByState_Infographic_Aug2014_140901

The opening infographic looks at total job gains and losses by State or Territory for the month of August. Where a job cannot be affixed to a certain site then the losses or gains are attributed to Australia (Non Specified).

Data-Points: Queensland was the only state to lose more jobs than it gained, while New South Wales and Western Australia picked up a small amount each. Two Australian companies, ResCo and Bluestone Global, cut 330 staff across the country.

2 - MiningGainsLosses_Chart_140901

The first employment chart looks at the previous 24-months from a total mining employment gain and loss perspective. The positive employment numbers are split into those that reflect infrastructure (tan) and operational (blue) gains. Job losses are then split into operational (red) and mining services (maroon). Mining services can include mining specific service centres, distribution, back-office functions and transport (thanks to learitee from the Australian Mining online community for the suggestion).

Data-Points: All of the 520 job gains in August were operational including the Baralaba North Coal expansion (QLD, Coal, 200); Maules Creek (NSW, Coal, 100) and I’ve included the 120 staffers at the recently opened QCLNG Gas Operations Hub. On the minus side Peabody Energy cut 350 staff from Burton Coal (QLD) including 100 contractors by text message and Glencore cut another 100 from its Newlands Coal (QLD) site.

3 - MiningResourceGainsLosses_Chart_140901

The next employment chart looks in more detail at the main resource types (Iron Ore, Coal, Gold/Copper, Zinc/Lead/Nickel, CSG/LNG and Uranium) by either a job gain or a loss.

Data-Points:

  • Although Coal gained 300-jobs it also lost 466 making this the 26th consecutive month of losses in that resource type;
  • Across the six resource types there was actually a gain of 6-jobs overall.

4 - MiningSectorSentiment_Chart_140901

The last chart tracks employment gains and losses sentiment and is now back dated to October 2011.

Data-Points: Sentiment took a slightly negative turn this month even with a lot of positive news including final approvals for Adani’s Carmichael Coal (QLD) and other smaller sites. With iron ore now touching on $80pmt during the month it has been hard to generate much good news in the West and Venture Minerals Riley Iron Ore (TAS) has deferred its project claiming approvals delays on top of poor pricing.

Another interesting point is that now I’ve pushed back the sentiment to Q4 2011 you can now see a lengthy period of good sentiment. That period of positive sentiment represented the sustained period of growth following the global recession stimulus package implemented by the Chinese several years before.

Juking the Stats (August 2014)

WorleyParsons again cut a significant amount of jobs across its global network. Recent news reports are stating they cut 1,700 jobs this year yet my research tells me the number is more likely to be 1,900. Furthermore this is the latest in a tranche of cuts and I believe they are close to cutting 4,800 since late 2012. WorleyParsons always discuss global job-cuts but given that most of their losses are currently occurring in Australia I suspect the bulk of recent layoffs would be amongst Australian employees. No journalist that I can see has put that question to them.

Summary

Not the best month but neither was it the worst. I continue to see trouble brewing if the iron ore price remains at $80pmt so I would be keeping a weather-eye on that over the next couple of months.

The Worsening Fatality Statistics in Australian Mining

For those that closely follow the Australian Mining Sector it will come as no surprise that 2014 is emerging as one of the worst in terms of safety that we have seen in a generation. According to SafeWork Australia in the first six months of this year there were 11 notifiable fatalities in the mining sector, which according to my calculations currently equates to a Worker Fatality Rate (WFR) of 28.8 fatalities per 100,000 workers. To give that some historical context the WFR for all Australian workers in 2013 was 1.64 fatalities per 100,000 workers.

2 - MiningFatalities_2003~2014

The first chart details the amount of work related fatalities by year since 2003. Figures exclude death by iatrogenic injuries, natural causes not related to work, disease, injuries sustained while overseas or suicide. The 2014 numbers are correct to 8 August with the 2013 and 2014 numbers reflecting the more comprehensive Industry of Workplace statistics (with thanks to the statistics team at SafeWork Australia for clarifying the differences).

Since the start of 2014 I have started to closely track employment, automation and fatalities as the three key indicators on the health of the mining sector. Within a few weeks I knew that mining safety would be a big story as a number of single fatalities occurred during January and February followed up by an underground collapse in April which killed two miners at the Austar Coal Mine .

Yet, a heightened fatality count in the mining industry isn’t the only story here.

Initially out of ignorance to how the industry and SafeWork Australia tracks its work related fatalities I started to build up a personal database of mining fatalities which also included those who have died of natural causes (on-site but not work related), from suicide, fatalities in overseas Australian miners and more recently those who could be considered Lifestyle Miners.

1 - MiningRelatedFatalities_2014

The second chart looks at Mining and Mining Related deaths of Australians in 2014.The WFR is calculated only on the official SafeWork Australia figures (correct as at 8 Aug 2014).

The key data point in the chart is the inclusion of known suicides. In June The West Australian mining industry was left reeling when an onsite incident led to the death of one employee and the possible offsite death of another. This incident has been followed up by two more probable onsite suicides amongst Pilbara FIFO workers. The recent tragedies come about as the District Coroner for the Pilbara region referred a number of 2013 deaths by suicide amongst FIFO workers to the WA State Coroner for a possible inquest.

It’s not all bad news though and I was heartened by news that AngloGold Ashanti, who were at the centre of the recent multiple tragedy in the Pilbara have in the past week signed up to the FIFO Families Social Support and Education Program.

In summary, I believe the mining industry must face the issue of mental health and suicide head-on. As far as I am concerned, if a miner dies by his or her own hand onsite should be treated in exactly the same way as if it were a work related fatality including the provision of industry wide data and statistics on the subject, more education to employees and their families and if required, seeking help from appropriate resources and organisations.

 

If you or someone you know is thinking of suicide, phone Lifeline on 13 11 14. Help is also available via Rural Link (1800 552 002), the Suicide Call Back Line (1300 659 467) and online resources can be found at BeyondBlue.

This article was originally published on MiningIQ.
Read the original article.

Data Sources

[1] Australian Bureau of Statistics. 6291.0.55.003 – Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, May 2014. Accessed 11 Aug 2014.
[2] SafeWork Australia. Worker fatalities. Accessed 11 Aug 2014.
[3] SafeWork Australia. Work-related Traumatic Injury Fatalities, Australia 2013. SafeWork Australia. 2014. Pg: iii-vii.

Random Analytics: Australian Mining Employment (to July 2014)

Mining continues to play an important part in the overall economy of Australia. For all of the discussion about the sector many people don’t realise that mining only employs a fraction of Australia’s workforce (currently just 264,400 source: ABS) and that many in the industry work on the construction rather than the operational side.

Each month I spend some time collating stories from a wide range of industry and media sources to build some analytics around the current state of mining employment in Australia. Here are the charts for Australian Mining Employment through to the end of July 2014.

1 - MiningJobsByState_Infographic_Jun2014_140801

The opening infographic looks at job gains and losses by State or Territory for the month of July.

Data-points: After a horror month in June when 1,592 jobs were lost Western Australia has picked up some employment this month with announcements by Atlas Iron (+200) and Transalta (LNG +250). For the rest of the country the numbers were all in the negative, even in New South Wales which gained 450 (Whitehaven Coal) but lost 915 overall including big numbers in the Hunter Valley. Overall the nation gained 920 and lost 2,043 mining jobs.

2 - MiningGainsLosses_Chart_140801

The second employment charts looks at the previous 24-months from a total mining employment gain and loss perspective. The positive employment numbers are split into those that reflect infrastructure (tan) and operational (blue) gains. Job losses are represented in red.

The biggest data-point for July 2014 was that the big numbers seen last month reduced slightly as those some of those jobs finalised in July and that we are now in the third month of 1,000+ job losses and the second consecutive month of 2,000+ job losses. The last day of the month was especially bad with 400 Hastings Deering jobs going in Queensland and another 95 coal positions being axed by BHP in NSW.

It wasn’t all bad news as some large operational announcements, like the Whitehaven Coal announcement of 450 jobs at its Maules Creek mine offset some of the big losses being announced in the Hunter Valley.

3 - MiningResourceGainsLosses_Chart_140801

The next employment chart looks in more detail at the main resource types (Iron Ore, Coal, Gold/Copper, Zinc/Lead/Nickel, CSG/LNG and Uranium) by either a job gain or a job loss.

Two key data points:

  • Although there were some gains in both coal and iron ore they were much smaller than the operational jobs lost in both resource types;
  • Coal has lost operational jobs now for 18 consecutive months (the last recording of no job losses was in Jan 2013).

4 - MiningSectorSentiment_Chart_140801

The last chart tracks employment gains and losses sentiment and is now updated back to December 2011.

Although the employment news is quite bad the sentiment is actually positive. I’ve seen this occur before. If you look at the difference between Jul 2013 (-24) and August 2013 (+3) you see a big jump in sentiment. This occurred during last year’s commodity crash as government pushed through mining approvals (which is a positive indicator even though it might not include any immediate employment outcomes). So although there are continued job cut announcements they are being largely offset (in terms of sentiment) by positive future announcements, such as the Adani announcement for the build of Carmichael Coal in Queensland.

Juking the Stats (July 2014)

Silver Lake Resources is set to cut more jobs as the gold miner closes its Lakewood Mill but didn’t announce how many would go or when.

Summary

It’s been another bad month for mining employment which came as a surprise as often the first month in a Financial Year is a chance for companies and governments to highlight some good news or to make positive announcements. This is reflected in the data where job losses outweigh job gains but sentiment is improving.

Saying that governments don’t create jobs, businesses do and with so much infrastructure finalising and the narrative squarely fixed on productivity I’ll suggest that you will see more negative than positive news in coming months.

Random Analytics: 44th Parliament 94(a) and 94(b) ejections (to 8 Jul 2014)

1-BronwynBishop_viaABC

Here is a look at the Standing Order 94(a) and Standing Order 94(b) ejections for the 44th Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia House of Representatives to the end of the 14th week (8 July 2014).

2 - 94aEjectionsbyPerson_140714

The first chart details the list of those ejected from the house under Standing Orders 94(a). At the end of the 14th sitting week there were 144 ejections, of which 141 (98.0%) were from the Australian Labor Party, two (1.4%) were from the Liberal National Party and just the one (0.6%) for the National Party.

The Top-3 from the ALP:

3-NickChampion_viaAPH

Nicholas David “Nick” Champion MP (20-ejections) is the ALP Member representing the electorate of Wakefield (SA). He won the seat at the 2007 Australian federal election.

4-MarkDreyfus_viaAPH

Mark Alfred Dreyfus QC MP (12-ejections) is the ALP Member representing the electorate of Isaacs (WA). He won the seat at the 2007 Australian federal election. He is the former Attorney-General, Minister for the Public Service and Integrity, Minister for Emergency Management, and Special Minister of State in the Second Rudd Ministry.

5-PatConroy_viaAPH

Pat Conroy MP (11-ejections) is the Member representing the electorate of Charlton (NSW). He won the seat at the 2013 Australian federal election.

From the Coalition:

6-EwenJones_viaAPH

Ewen Jones MP (2-ejections) is the Member representing the electorate of Herbert (QLD). He won the seat at the 2010 Australian federal election.

There have only been two Standing Order 94(b) ejections thus far. They are Mark Dreyfus (ALP) and Wayne Swan (ALP).

7 - 94aEjectionsbySittingDay_140714

The final chart is a look at the Standing Order 94(a) ejections by sitting day. As you can see they tend to pick up in the second last week of each large sitting period or at the end of the calendar year. In this update I’ve been able to include some colour as three ejections have come from the Coalition.

Image Sources: Bronwyn Bishop’s image care of the ABC while photos of individual members are taken from their official Australian Parliament House photo.