Random Analytica

Charts, Infographics & Analysis without the spin

Tag: Australia

Random Analytics: 44th Australian Parliament Suspensions (to cob 2014)

 

We are now into the final week of Parliament for 2014 and the previous week saw a number of records broken. Via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (published 27 November 2014). Bronwyn Bishop suspends 18 MPs from Question Time, breaks Federation-era record. Excerpt:

Federal Parliament has embraced the schoolyard tradition of an “end-of-year muck-up day” setting new standards in misbehaviour. In a raucous Question Time to end Parliament’s penultimate sitting week, the Speaker, Bronwyn Bishop, suspended 18 MPs – all Labor. With a massively depleted front and back bench behind him, a frustrated manager of Opposition business Tony Burke rose to inform the House “18 people in one Question Time is an all-time record since Federation”.

Bishop says claims she picked on Labor MPs ‘pathetic’ She broke the previous one-day record for suspensions which had stood at 12. The Speaker almost racked up 50 suspensions in one week, but fell short at 47. Ms Bishop’s personal total of suspensions for the 44th Parliament stands at 285.

During that week there were some discrepancies in 94(a) suspension counts. On 25 November Hansard detailed nine suspensions while the Sydney Morning Herald reported ten and The Australian reported 12. I put a request for clarification into the Australian Parliament and received a wonderfully detailed response from Assistant Director, Chamber Research Office, Department of the House of Representatives who confirmed 12 suspensions on the day. (Hat tip to the Australian Parliament).

Here is a look at the Standing Order 94(a) and Standing Order 94(b) suspensions for the 44th Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia House of Representatives to the 27th November 2014. It is also my intent to update these charts at the end of the last sitting week for 2014.

1 - SuspensionsBySittingDay_141127

The 44th Parliament of Australia Suspensions per Sitting Day details the total amount of suspensions with breakdowns by political party.

As noted in the ABC story the final day of the second last week was the most suspensions in a single day since Federation (1901). Those named under Standing Order 94(b) have also been noted in red (they are Mark Dreyfus, Wayne Swan and Ed Husic) and the Coalition members ejected have been included under different colours depending on which Party they belong to.

 

2 - SuspensionsByMember_141127_Corrected

The 44th Parliament Suspensions by Member details the top 12 ALP and the four Coalition Members of Parliament to have been suspended thus far.

The Member for Wakefield, Nick Champion continues to lead the count at 36 and is currently 11 suspensions ahead of his colleague the Member for Moreton, Graham Perrett. Ewen Jones, Michael McCormack, Luke Simpkings and Andrew Nikolic from the Coalition have also been suspended.

There have been a further 27 ALP Members suspended seven times or less. They are:

7-Suspensions: Anthony Albanese, Chris Bowen, Warren Snowden & Tim Watts.
6-Suspendions: Catherine King.
5-Suspensions: Jenny Macklin.
4-Suspensions: Tony Burke, Julie Collins, Michael Danby, Joanne Ryan and Matt Thistlethwaite.
3-Suspensions: Lisa Chesters, Tanya Plibersek and Wayne Swan.
2-Suspensions: David Feeney, Joel Fitzgibbon, Michelle Rowland & Kelvin Thomson.

Mark Butler, Jason Clare, Sharon Claydon, Andrew Giles, Jill Hall, Clare O’Neil and Melissa Parke all have one suspension each.

3 - SuspensionsByDoTW_141127

The final chart is Day of the Week for Suspensions.

The obvious data point and the one which is consistently pointed out by the media is that the final day of the sitting week (usually a Thursday) is the most often day where members are ejected. Interestingly, the difference between Wednesday and Thursday was much closer than the anecdotal evidence suggested. In total Mondays had 43 suspensions, Tuesdays 68, Wednesdays 80 and Thursdays 94. If the week commencing 24 November did not occur then it would have been 68/76 for Wednesday/Thursday.

For a bit of fun I split the data between Nick Champion (with 12.6% of all suspensions for the 44th Parliament) and the rest of the House.

 

Data Sources:

[1] Parliament of Australia. Hansard. Accessed 2 December 2014.

 

Updated Charts to Monday, 1st December 2014

* There were no Standing Order 94(a) or 94(b) suspensions on the 1st December 2014

 

 

Random Analytics: Australian Mining Employment (Aug 2014)

Mining continues to play an important part in the overall economy of Australia. For all of the discussion about the sector many people don’t realise that mining only employs 264,400 (source: ABS). This is just a fraction of Australia’s total labour force and even that number is often conflated given that many who work in mining are employed on infrastructure or services activities rather than directly in operations.

Each month I spend some time collating stories from a wide range of industry and media sources to build some analytics around the current state of mining employment in Australia. The month of August 2014 was quieter than previous months when more than 3,000 jobs were lost in June and another 1,000+ in July yet at the end of August we still saw more jobs lost than gained.

Here are the charts for Australian Mining Employment through to the end of August 2014.

1 - MiningJobsByState_Infographic_Aug2014_140901

The opening infographic looks at total job gains and losses by State or Territory for the month of August. Where a job cannot be affixed to a certain site then the losses or gains are attributed to Australia (Non Specified).

Data-Points: Queensland was the only state to lose more jobs than it gained, while New South Wales and Western Australia picked up a small amount each. Two Australian companies, ResCo and Bluestone Global, cut 330 staff across the country.

2 - MiningGainsLosses_Chart_140901

The first employment chart looks at the previous 24-months from a total mining employment gain and loss perspective. The positive employment numbers are split into those that reflect infrastructure (tan) and operational (blue) gains. Job losses are then split into operational (red) and mining services (maroon). Mining services can include mining specific service centres, distribution, back-office functions and transport (thanks to learitee from the Australian Mining online community for the suggestion).

Data-Points: All of the 520 job gains in August were operational including the Baralaba North Coal expansion (QLD, Coal, 200); Maules Creek (NSW, Coal, 100) and I’ve included the 120 staffers at the recently opened QCLNG Gas Operations Hub. On the minus side Peabody Energy cut 350 staff from Burton Coal (QLD) including 100 contractors by text message and Glencore cut another 100 from its Newlands Coal (QLD) site.

3 - MiningResourceGainsLosses_Chart_140901

The next employment chart looks in more detail at the main resource types (Iron Ore, Coal, Gold/Copper, Zinc/Lead/Nickel, CSG/LNG and Uranium) by either a job gain or a loss.

Data-Points:

  • Although Coal gained 300-jobs it also lost 466 making this the 26th consecutive month of losses in that resource type;
  • Across the six resource types there was actually a gain of 6-jobs overall.

4 - MiningSectorSentiment_Chart_140901

The last chart tracks employment gains and losses sentiment and is now back dated to October 2011.

Data-Points: Sentiment took a slightly negative turn this month even with a lot of positive news including final approvals for Adani’s Carmichael Coal (QLD) and other smaller sites. With iron ore now touching on $80pmt during the month it has been hard to generate much good news in the West and Venture Minerals Riley Iron Ore (TAS) has deferred its project claiming approvals delays on top of poor pricing.

Another interesting point is that now I’ve pushed back the sentiment to Q4 2011 you can now see a lengthy period of good sentiment. That period of positive sentiment represented the sustained period of growth following the global recession stimulus package implemented by the Chinese several years before.

Juking the Stats (August 2014)

WorleyParsons again cut a significant amount of jobs across its global network. Recent news reports are stating they cut 1,700 jobs this year yet my research tells me the number is more likely to be 1,900. Furthermore this is the latest in a tranche of cuts and I believe they are close to cutting 4,800 since late 2012. WorleyParsons always discuss global job-cuts but given that most of their losses are currently occurring in Australia I suspect the bulk of recent layoffs would be amongst Australian employees. No journalist that I can see has put that question to them.

Summary

Not the best month but neither was it the worst. I continue to see trouble brewing if the iron ore price remains at $80pmt so I would be keeping a weather-eye on that over the next couple of months.

The Worsening Fatality Statistics in Australian Mining

For those that closely follow the Australian Mining Sector it will come as no surprise that 2014 is emerging as one of the worst in terms of safety that we have seen in a generation. According to SafeWork Australia in the first six months of this year there were 11 notifiable fatalities in the mining sector, which according to my calculations currently equates to a Worker Fatality Rate (WFR) of 28.8 fatalities per 100,000 workers. To give that some historical context the WFR for all Australian workers in 2013 was 1.64 fatalities per 100,000 workers.

2 - MiningFatalities_2003~2014

The first chart details the amount of work related fatalities by year since 2003. Figures exclude death by iatrogenic injuries, natural causes not related to work, disease, injuries sustained while overseas or suicide. The 2014 numbers are correct to 8 August with the 2013 and 2014 numbers reflecting the more comprehensive Industry of Workplace statistics (with thanks to the statistics team at SafeWork Australia for clarifying the differences).

Since the start of 2014 I have started to closely track employment, automation and fatalities as the three key indicators on the health of the mining sector. Within a few weeks I knew that mining safety would be a big story as a number of single fatalities occurred during January and February followed up by an underground collapse in April which killed two miners at the Austar Coal Mine .

Yet, a heightened fatality count in the mining industry isn’t the only story here.

Initially out of ignorance to how the industry and SafeWork Australia tracks its work related fatalities I started to build up a personal database of mining fatalities which also included those who have died of natural causes (on-site but not work related), from suicide, fatalities in overseas Australian miners and more recently those who could be considered Lifestyle Miners.

1 - MiningRelatedFatalities_2014

The second chart looks at Mining and Mining Related deaths of Australians in 2014.The WFR is calculated only on the official SafeWork Australia figures (correct as at 8 Aug 2014).

The key data point in the chart is the inclusion of known suicides. In June The West Australian mining industry was left reeling when an onsite incident led to the death of one employee and the possible offsite death of another. This incident has been followed up by two more probable onsite suicides amongst Pilbara FIFO workers. The recent tragedies come about as the District Coroner for the Pilbara region referred a number of 2013 deaths by suicide amongst FIFO workers to the WA State Coroner for a possible inquest.

It’s not all bad news though and I was heartened by news that AngloGold Ashanti, who were at the centre of the recent multiple tragedy in the Pilbara have in the past week signed up to the FIFO Families Social Support and Education Program.

In summary, I believe the mining industry must face the issue of mental health and suicide head-on. As far as I am concerned, if a miner dies by his or her own hand onsite should be treated in exactly the same way as if it were a work related fatality including the provision of industry wide data and statistics on the subject, more education to employees and their families and if required, seeking help from appropriate resources and organisations.

 

If you or someone you know is thinking of suicide, phone Lifeline on 13 11 14. Help is also available via Rural Link (1800 552 002), the Suicide Call Back Line (1300 659 467) and online resources can be found at BeyondBlue.

This article was originally published on MiningIQ.
Read the original article.

Data Sources

[1] Australian Bureau of Statistics. 6291.0.55.003 – Labour Force, Australia, Detailed, Quarterly, May 2014. Accessed 11 Aug 2014.
[2] SafeWork Australia. Worker fatalities. Accessed 11 Aug 2014.
[3] SafeWork Australia. Work-related Traumatic Injury Fatalities, Australia 2013. SafeWork Australia. 2014. Pg: iii-vii.

Random Analytics: Australian Mining Employment (to July 2014)

Mining continues to play an important part in the overall economy of Australia. For all of the discussion about the sector many people don’t realise that mining only employs a fraction of Australia’s workforce (currently just 264,400 source: ABS) and that many in the industry work on the construction rather than the operational side.

Each month I spend some time collating stories from a wide range of industry and media sources to build some analytics around the current state of mining employment in Australia. Here are the charts for Australian Mining Employment through to the end of July 2014.

1 - MiningJobsByState_Infographic_Jun2014_140801

The opening infographic looks at job gains and losses by State or Territory for the month of July.

Data-points: After a horror month in June when 1,592 jobs were lost Western Australia has picked up some employment this month with announcements by Atlas Iron (+200) and Transalta (LNG +250). For the rest of the country the numbers were all in the negative, even in New South Wales which gained 450 (Whitehaven Coal) but lost 915 overall including big numbers in the Hunter Valley. Overall the nation gained 920 and lost 2,043 mining jobs.

2 - MiningGainsLosses_Chart_140801

The second employment charts looks at the previous 24-months from a total mining employment gain and loss perspective. The positive employment numbers are split into those that reflect infrastructure (tan) and operational (blue) gains. Job losses are represented in red.

The biggest data-point for July 2014 was that the big numbers seen last month reduced slightly as those some of those jobs finalised in July and that we are now in the third month of 1,000+ job losses and the second consecutive month of 2,000+ job losses. The last day of the month was especially bad with 400 Hastings Deering jobs going in Queensland and another 95 coal positions being axed by BHP in NSW.

It wasn’t all bad news as some large operational announcements, like the Whitehaven Coal announcement of 450 jobs at its Maules Creek mine offset some of the big losses being announced in the Hunter Valley.

3 - MiningResourceGainsLosses_Chart_140801

The next employment chart looks in more detail at the main resource types (Iron Ore, Coal, Gold/Copper, Zinc/Lead/Nickel, CSG/LNG and Uranium) by either a job gain or a job loss.

Two key data points:

  • Although there were some gains in both coal and iron ore they were much smaller than the operational jobs lost in both resource types;
  • Coal has lost operational jobs now for 18 consecutive months (the last recording of no job losses was in Jan 2013).

4 - MiningSectorSentiment_Chart_140801

The last chart tracks employment gains and losses sentiment and is now updated back to December 2011.

Although the employment news is quite bad the sentiment is actually positive. I’ve seen this occur before. If you look at the difference between Jul 2013 (-24) and August 2013 (+3) you see a big jump in sentiment. This occurred during last year’s commodity crash as government pushed through mining approvals (which is a positive indicator even though it might not include any immediate employment outcomes). So although there are continued job cut announcements they are being largely offset (in terms of sentiment) by positive future announcements, such as the Adani announcement for the build of Carmichael Coal in Queensland.

Juking the Stats (July 2014)

Silver Lake Resources is set to cut more jobs as the gold miner closes its Lakewood Mill but didn’t announce how many would go or when.

Summary

It’s been another bad month for mining employment which came as a surprise as often the first month in a Financial Year is a chance for companies and governments to highlight some good news or to make positive announcements. This is reflected in the data where job losses outweigh job gains but sentiment is improving.

Saying that governments don’t create jobs, businesses do and with so much infrastructure finalising and the narrative squarely fixed on productivity I’ll suggest that you will see more negative than positive news in coming months.

Random Analytics: 44th Parliament 94(a) and 94(b) ejections (to 8 Jul 2014)

1-BronwynBishop_viaABC

Here is a look at the Standing Order 94(a) and Standing Order 94(b) ejections for the 44th Parliament of the Commonwealth of Australia House of Representatives to the end of the 14th week (8 July 2014).

2 - 94aEjectionsbyPerson_140714

The first chart details the list of those ejected from the house under Standing Orders 94(a). At the end of the 14th sitting week there were 144 ejections, of which 141 (98.0%) were from the Australian Labor Party, two (1.4%) were from the Liberal National Party and just the one (0.6%) for the National Party.

The Top-3 from the ALP:

3-NickChampion_viaAPH

Nicholas David “Nick” Champion MP (20-ejections) is the ALP Member representing the electorate of Wakefield (SA). He won the seat at the 2007 Australian federal election.

4-MarkDreyfus_viaAPH

Mark Alfred Dreyfus QC MP (12-ejections) is the ALP Member representing the electorate of Isaacs (WA). He won the seat at the 2007 Australian federal election. He is the former Attorney-General, Minister for the Public Service and Integrity, Minister for Emergency Management, and Special Minister of State in the Second Rudd Ministry.

5-PatConroy_viaAPH

Pat Conroy MP (11-ejections) is the Member representing the electorate of Charlton (NSW). He won the seat at the 2013 Australian federal election.

From the Coalition:

6-EwenJones_viaAPH

Ewen Jones MP (2-ejections) is the Member representing the electorate of Herbert (QLD). He won the seat at the 2010 Australian federal election.

There have only been two Standing Order 94(b) ejections thus far. They are Mark Dreyfus (ALP) and Wayne Swan (ALP).

7 - 94aEjectionsbySittingDay_140714

The final chart is a look at the Standing Order 94(a) ejections by sitting day. As you can see they tend to pick up in the second last week of each large sitting period or at the end of the calendar year. In this update I’ve been able to include some colour as three ejections have come from the Coalition.

Image Sources: Bronwyn Bishop’s image care of the ABC while photos of individual members are taken from their official Australian Parliament House photo.

Random Analytics: Australian Mining Employment Update (to end June 2014)

Some years ago while working within the Workforce Planning fraternity I quickly understood that June was a tough month for employment, no matter what sector you either guided or worked in. It might have something to do with the seasons given that companies traditionally cut staff in the coldest months. Alternately it might be impacted on the business cycle. After more than a decade in Workforce Planning I’ve found that, whatever your view, business reflects more pragmatic ends.

Last month I suggested that June is often a horror month for mining employment.

My prediction was borne out (no matter the reason). What I didn’t guess was that the job gains versus the job losses would be the worst in more than two-years, potentially making June 2014 the worst month in mining employment since the commencement of the Global Recession (effectively Nov/Dec 2008).

Here are the charts for Australian Mining Employment through to the end of June 2014.

1 - MiningJobsByState_Infographic_Jun2014_140701

 

The opening infographic looks at job gains and losses by State or Territory for the month of June 2014.

Data-points: All key mining states (with the exception of the Northern Territory) have lost significant numbers of operational mining (human) capital. The only positive is that Tasmania picked up an additional 50-positions.

2 - MiningGainsLosses_Chart_140701

The first of my mining employment charts looks at the previous 24-months from a mining employment gain and loss perspective. The positive employment numbers are split into those that reflect infrastructure (tan) and operational (blue) gains. Job losses are represented in red.

The biggest data-point for June 2014 is that the losses in employment are the greatest in two-years, effectively making June 2014, officially, the worst month for two years but, in effect, the worst month for mining employment since the Global Recession which kicked off in Nov/Dec 2008.

3 - MiningSectorGainsLosses_Chart_140701

 

The next employment chart looks in more details at the main resource types (Iron Ore, Coal, Gold/Copper, Zinc/Lead/Nickel, CSG/LNG and Uranium) by either a job gain or a job loss.

Of the 3,939 job losses for the month of June the key points are:

  • 100% were operational job losses (effectively, zero in construction);
  • 79% were included in my tally of key resources;
  • 37.5% of the total operational losses in June were in the Coal sector, the 24th month of consecutive losses in that sector;
  • 0% of the losses were in mining construction.

It should also be noted that the figures above do not include projected job cuts from BHP Billiton who are currently reviewing their iron ore business in West Australia.

4 - MiningSectorSentiment_Chart_140701

The last chart tracks employment gains and losses sentiment.

Given that I haven’t commented on this chart for some time the key points are that August –November 2012 and Q4 FY 2012/2013 plus July 2013 were very negative times for mining employment (effectively corresponding with declining commodity prices). We are currently undergoing a similar period with soft mineral pricing from late 2013 through to even more depressed prices in the last six weeks of the financial year.

One last point on the uptick in June 2014. There were lots of positive announcements for mining in June from government (i.e. positive EIS announcements) but little in the way of immediate positive employment benefits.

Juking the Stats (June 2014)

Whitehaven Coal is cutting jobs at its coal handling and preparation plant at Gunnedah in response to “tough” coal market conditions. At the same time they are not releasing much in the way of details or numbers of the people they are putting out of work and potentially on the bench for an extended time. I look forward to a future update.

Even Money Prediction

After two years of consecutive coal mining employment losses due to depressed thermal and metallurgical coal prices the continued low iron ore pricing will see a similar (and consecutive) drip feed of employment decline in that resource group.

Random Analytics: Australian Mining Employment Update (May 2014)

For a number of professional and personal reasons I have not completed, nor updated my Mining Workforce Planning Scan since September 2013 (some ten months ago). As it happens an article by Australian Mining last week reminded me that it is something I should have a look at again, especially given the recent bad news in regard to mining employment. 2014: Mining jobs cut so far… Excerpt:

Shaky commodity prices and the end of the boom have resulted in a bad year for job losses, and BHP and Rio have warned of more to follow. Cutbacks have ranged from small belt-tightening measures, such as 36 job losses at Illawarra Coal, to the level of catastrophic collapse such as when mismanaged contractor Forge Group folded leaving 1300 out of work early this year.

Coal has been the worst hit in mining, with Vale announcing the closure of all operations in the Hunter Valley for care and maintenance, among a series of other cutbacks by BHP and Rio Tinto. Queensland has also suffered, with Queensland Resources Council president Michael Roche saying that 10 per cent of mines in the state are now in a “very precarious position”.

Industry analysts have blamed oversupply on the global market for the plunge in the price of coal, with hard-coking coal having dropped to $US120 per tonne from $US330 in 2011. Iron ore has also suffered price-wise, falling from $US135 per tonne down to $US110 in April; however the industry seems to have escaped any major job losses.

There is no doubt that after that article was written the news got worse with further cuts, especially in New South Wales coal mines. With iron ore falling another $15 to just above $95 at the end of May how long before we see another round of severe job cuts in the Pilbara similar to September 2012?

The Australian article then lists a large number of job losses in 2014. But what do these job losses look like compared to job gains across the last 12-months. Also given that Australia has become so currently reliant on mineral exports such as iron ore, coal and future reliant on growth in exports of LNG and Uranium how are job gains or losses looking for these resource types.

Re-commencing the first of a monthly series in Mining Employment updates here is a look at how that story from Australian Mining translates into two charts.

1 - MiningGainsLosses_Chart_140601

The first chart looks at the previous 12-months from a mining employment gain and loss perspective. The positive employment numbers are split into those that reflect infrastructure (tan) and operational (blue) gains. Job losses are represented in red.

The obvious take away from this chart is that outside of August and September 2013 the losses have far outweighed the gains, with job cuts underrepresented to some extent as some companies chose to supress actual details. The data for May includes:

  • 392 operational jobs added;
  • 1,000 infrastructure jobs added;
  • 1,944 jobs lost.

2 - MiningSectorGainsLosses_Chart_140601

The second chart attempts to breakdown the job gains and losses by key resource types (Iron ore, Coal, Gold, Copper/Zinc, CSG/LNG & Uranium). Similar to the previous chart the only period of overall job growth occurred in these resource types happened between July and September 2013. The May details were:

  • Iron Ore: 120 lost;
  • Coal: 350 added and 828 lost;
  • Gold: Newcrest opened the Cadia East Gold Mine (see Juking the Stats) and 94 lost.

Juking the Stats (May 2014)

The most notable manipulator of employment information in May was Newcrest which opened its Cadia East Gold Mine with the assistance of NSW Premier Mike Baird. The mine is expected to support 1,900 direct and indirect jobs (source: MineWeb). No doubt it has created some employment but given that Newcrest NEVER shares it job loss data (Telfer July 2013 and November 2013 most recently) and its financials have been less than satisfactory I felt that conflating direct and indirect employment might be a way to also conflate its entire Cadia Valley Operations footprint). I have requested further details directly from Newcrest and am awaiting a reply before including Gold employment numbers for May.

Other Jukers include:

  • Perilya who ended their MacMahon contract which will result in job losses but no specifics were provided;
  • BHP Billiton has confirmed that there will be job losses (a source suggests in the hundreds) at Worsley Alumina but have not confirmed details.

Final Observation(s)

May/June tend to be months where companies clean house, especially around employment so June may prove to be another awful month for further job cut announcements. On that note, I will return next month with updated employment charts and a revised employment sentiment chart which will hopefully add another dataset for your consideration.

Random Analytics: Tony, Please Stop Pretending You Share My Budget Pain

Peter Whiteford did an excellent article for The Guardian earlier this week which highlighted the fact that the poor will suffer the most through to 2017. Given that the Treasurer (Joe Hockey) and the Prime Minister seemed convinced that the budget pain is being shared across the board I thought I might utilise some of the research data that Professor Peter Whiteford and PhD candidate Daniel Nethery have come up with for an infographic.

1 - BudgetPain_Infographic_140520

Technical notes:

  • I have chosen to highlight the differences in categories using more direct examples (i.e. a university student going on to Newstart rather than just a ‘Single Person on Newstart, aged 23-years’);
  • The research uses Average Weekly Earnings (AWE) rather than an annual income (which most non-economists recognize more readily). I have averaged the AWE using the most recent Australian Bureau of Statistics data;
  • Any mistakes are unintentional and are of my own making, thus not reflecting the excellent work of Peter and Daniel.

The Guardian piece can be found in full (including the table) here. Working-age poor will suffer most pain from Australian budget.

 

Image: Tony and Margie Abbott photo care of the ABC.

Random Analytics: Shane Watson First Chance Average (to Cape Town 2013/14)

Shane Watson, who debuted for Australia back in 2005, has just returned to the Australian team for the last test at Newlands, Cape Town. He scored a quick-fire 25 in the second innings but as was reported via the ABC he had to bowl at training prior to re-admission back to the team. Some of the reasoning behind the bowling test might be his batting average (which currently stands at 36.26) but a closer look at his First Chance Average might explain more.

The First Chance Average (FCA) is something that I have recently developed for use in Test cricket and is loosely based off the Earned Run Average statistics utilised in baseball. The FCA is calculated using the score the batsman would have got if a legitimate chance had been taken by the opposing team. Legitimate chances include dropped catches and missed stumping’s (at this stage).

Let’s look at Shane Watson’s First Chance statistics.

1-AvgVsFCA_SWatson_140306

Watson’s standard Test average is currently 36.26 after a 40 and a 25 at Newlands, South Africa) versus his FCA which sits at 27.76 (-8.49).

Special Note: My FCA calculation for Watson is out by up to 31-runs as he was dropped by Danish Kaneira on debut. Unfortunately the Australian Broadcasting Corporation, ESPN and Dawn.com didn’t record his score at the time just stating that he was given a chance. I even reached out to Peter English one of the ESPN commentators who were there on the day but unfortunately he couldn’t remember.

2-140301_Tweet_PeterEnglish

Now a look at Watson’s First Chance Deviation (FCD) and Chances.

3-FCDEtChances_SWatson_140306

The FCD (in blue) is the percentile of First Chance Deviation runs against the total Test Runs scored by a batsman.

Shane Watson has currently scored 3,408 runs but would have scored 743 less if opposing teams had of taken his offered chances given him a current FCD of between 21.8 – 22.7% (if you add on a potential 31 additional runs for this first drop which no one noted). His career FCD low was recorded during the West Indies tour of Australia in 2009 (5.1 – 10.0%) and FCD career high was during the India tour of 2010 (28.5 – 30.7%)

The chances that I have been able to record are in red. Watson has had an Average Chance (AC) high of 1.0000 (one chance every innings) recorded in his first test during the Pakistan tour of Australia in 2005 and an AC low 0.1053 (one chance in almost every ten innings) recorded during the West Indies tour or Australia in 2009.

Finally a look at Shane Watson’s Test batting averages.

4-Stats_SWatson_140306

I think Shane Watson’s batting career can be summed up by his overall statistics if you consider him an all-rounder. His Test average is currently 36.26 as compared to Jacques Kallis who finished up with 55.37. If you look at his First Chance Average that reduces to just 27.76 with his first non-chance century being scored in Kennington in August 2013 almost eight years after he debuted (he was famously dropped for 99 (120*) against Pakistan in Melbourne for then dropped on 0 (126) against India in Mohali).

FINAL THOUGHTS

I was surprised by the traditional batting average differential between Jacques Kallis (who I consider the best all-rounder of recent times) and Shane Watson. If you consider his FCA then you would have to be concerned about his Test longevity.

Random Analytics: David Warner First Chance Average (to 24 Feb 2014)

Note: I first published this blog using the acronym Earned Run Average (ERA) and Earned Run Differential (ERD). I have subsequently amended the acronyms to First Chance Average (FCA) and First Chance Differential (FCD). See: Random Analytics: Shane Watson First Chance Average (to Cape Town 2013/14) for the detail.

David Warner’s recent form has been fantastic. Two centuries plus two half centuries in the Australian leg of the Ashes and one century plus two half centuries in the first two tests in South Africa are a good return.

However I haven’t been completely convinced that Warner is in the best of form and while discussing the subject over a beer a mate of mine suggested using a Moneyball metric to test the theory.

I could be wrong but here might be a cricket first, looking at David Warner’s Test Earned Run Average statistics (and thanks to Daryn Webster for the suggestion and Adrian Storen for the sanity check).

1 - AvgVsERA_DWarner_140226

First chart looks at Warners standard Test average (currently 42.88 after a 70 and a 66 at Port Elizabeth, South Africa) versus his Earned Run Average which sits at 34.92 (-7.96).

The Earned Run Average (ERA) is calculated using the score he would have got if a legitimate chance had been taken by the opposing team. In this case I’ve only had to consider dropped catches and missed stumping’s as legitimate chances but I could foresee a missed referral being added in the future. As an example in the 2nd Innings at Port Elizabeth, Warner was put down by Duminy in the 16th over on 36. Thus although he scored 66 for the match his Earned Runs were just 36.

2 - AvgVsERA_DWarner_Summer2013~14_140226

The next chart looks at Warners standard Test average for the Australian and South African summer series. Although Warner has had an outstanding summer with the bat his average over seven tests stands at 60.46 yet his ERA is a much lower 41.00 (-19.46).

3 - ERDevEtChances_DWarner_140224

The final chart looks at two datasets.

The first (in blue) is the Earned Run Deviation (ERD) which for Warner has increased from a career low of 8.8% at the start of summer to now hit a career high of 18.6%.

The Earned Run Deviation (ERA) is calculated 1/Total Test Runs x Earned Run Deviation. In Warner’s case he has currently scored 2,187 runs but would have scored 406 less if opposing teams had of taken his offered chances.

The second dataset (in red) are the chances that David Warner has been given.

On the positive side his twelve chances have a first chance average of 33 but a multiple chance of 38.7, thus demonstrating he doesn’t throw away his wicket early. On the negative side:

  • He has had 2/3rd (8/12) of all his chances in the last two series;
  • His Average Chances (AC) over his career was 0.27 (a chance every fourth innings). Over the recent summer this has doubled to 0.57 (a chance every second innings);
  • His summer 2013/2014 Earned Run Deviation is 32.2%.

FINAL THOUGHTS

Australia’s coach, Darren Lehmann, when asked if Warner was too reckless has recently statedThat’s just the way he is, and we’re very comfortable with that“.

Warner’s current form is excellent so any coach would be hard pressed to have to drop him.

Saying that Warner’s Earned Run Average, Earned Run Deviation and Average Chances are all moving in the wrong direction. Unless he can turn that around in the short term he might find his luck running out.

UPDATES

6 Mar 2014: Updated title to First Chance Average and added note plus link to Shane Watson’s FCA.