Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Tag: Combat Losses

Random Analytica: Ukraine. Russian Losses (May 2022)

Updated with data as at 17th May 2022.

It’s Victory Day in Moscow this month and Russia is facing serious setbacks in its war against Ukraine. So, for the month of May 2022, I’m tracking Russian combat losses. Specifically, troops, tanks, Armoured Personnel Carriers, artillery systems and Multi Launch Rocket System losses.

At the end of April, the Ministry of Defence, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 23,200 troops. As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 27,900 troops (+4,700 this month averaging approximately 276 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition. Pick up of Russian casualties since late August (200+ 26/04 – 8/05). Ukrainians started reported in units of 50 on the 9th May (with 150-dead).

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 1,008 tanks. As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 1,235 tanks (+227 this month averaging approximately 13 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition. The Ukrainians were reporting 10+ Russians tanks destroyed for 15-consecutive days until the 8th May (when only eight were reported). The numbers over the last week have been less that the highs in late April and early May.

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 2,445 Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs). As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 3,009 Armoured Personnel Carriers (+564 this month averaging approximately 33 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition. From the 17th April through to 11th May the Ukrainians are saying they have knocked out a minimum of 20 APCs per day. 25-days straight!

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 436 artillery pieces/systems. As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 578 artillery pieces/systems (+142 this month averaging approximately 8 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition of artillery systems. A big day of losses reported on the 16th May. Would be an interesting backstory.

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 151 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 198 MLRS (+47 this month averaging approximately 3 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition with a big loss on the 3rd May.

 

Slava Ukraini.

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Random Analytica: Ukraine. Russian Combat Losses estimated at 23,200

I fondly remember having an interesting discussion with another Veteran mate of mine (Vietnam era) who told me that Putin was the smartest card player he had ever seen. As he told me “Putin always seems to be beating guys with a pair of twos. Every time!”.

Hat-tip Bob, you know who you are. They called his bluff.

Russia is losing a lot of troops in Ukraine. Russian won’t discuss numbers but there is some anecdotal data around that suggests the number of Russian dead in the first two months of the war is over 20,000. The Ministry of Defence, Ukraine is estimating that the number of Russian combat losses today hit 23,200. I looked at the attrition rate for Russian combat troops since the Ukraine Military commenced daily updates on the 3rd April 2022.

Short analysis. Terrible strategic tactics by Russia. Another Georgia but on a bigger scale. Terrible tactics by Russia on the ground. Combat dead equals 10% of everyone deployed on 24th February. That means every Russian soldier who deployed basically knows someone who is dead or injured (in just two months of war). Imagine that. The morale on the ground must be absolutely smashed.

I trained for WWIII. Watching it live is surreal. Stay safe.

Slava Ukraini

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