Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Tag: COVID-19

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) by Age Group as at 25 July 2021

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has updated its latest safety report. No new deaths were reported. Via the TGA. COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 29-07-2021. Summary:

  • The most frequently reported suspected side effects associated with Comirnaty (Pfizer) and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines continue to be events that were seen in the clinical trials, and are commonly experienced with many vaccines.
  • Over the last week, 6 additional cases of blood clots with low blood platelets have been assessed as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) likely to be linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. When assessed using the United Kingdom (UK) case definition, one was confirmed and 5 were deemed probable TTS.
  • An external Vaccine Safety Investigation Group (VSIG), convened by the TGA on 28 July 2021, concluded that three previously reported cases of probable TTS that occurred after a second AstraZeneca dose were unlikely to be related to the vaccine. They also considered a fatal case and concluded it was not related to vaccination.
  • This brings the total number of cases of TTS to 90 from approximately 6.3 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine administered to date.

Simplistically put and based on the above figures you are likely to have an adverse reaction to AstraZeneca in approx. every 70,000th dose (-100 from the previous week) and a fatal reaction in approx. every 1.050-million doses (+33,000 from the previous week). For context Australia has had 33,726 cases and 923-deaths with a Case Fatality Rate of 2.73% (source: Worldometer).

Here are the stories of the six deaths linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine to date:

1. 48-year old woman from NSW. Posted 16 April 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. NSW woman’s fatal blood clotting likely linked to AstraZeneca COVID vaccine, Therapeutic Goods Administration says.

2. A 52-year old woman from NSW. Posted 10 June 2021 via the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA). COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 10-06-2021.

3. A 61-year old woman from WA. Posted 8 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Death of 61-year-old WA woman last month likely linked to AstraZeneca vaccine.

4. A 72-year old woman from SA. Posted 12 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. South Australian woman dies from rare blood clots after receiving AstraZeneca vaccine.

5. A 48-year old woman from Victoria. Posted 22 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. TGA links deaths of 44yo Tasmanian man and 48yo Victorian woman to AstraZeneca vaccine

6. A 44-year old man from Tasmania. Posted 22 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. TGA links deaths of 44yo Tasmanian man and 48yo Victorian woman to AstraZeneca vaccine

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) by Age Group as at 18 July 2021

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has updated its latest safety report with two new confirmed deaths announced. Via the TGA. COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 22-07-2021. Summary:

  • The most frequently reported suspected side effects associated with Comirnaty (Pfizer) and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines continue to be events that were seen in the clinical trials, and are commonly experienced with many vaccines.
  • Over the last week, four additional cases of blood clots with low blood platelets have been assessed as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) likely to be linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. When assessed using the UK case definition, one was confirmed and three were deemed probable TTS. This brings the total number of cases of TTS to 87 from 6.1 million doses of the AstraZeneca vaccine administered to date.
  • Sadly two people with confirmed TTS following the first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine died in the last week. One was a 44-year-old man from Tasmania and the other was a 48-year-old woman from Victoria.  We extend our sincere condolences to their families and loved ones.
  • In particular, we continue to closely monitor reports of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) and Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) following vaccination with the AstraZeneca vaccine, and myocarditis and pericarditis with the Pfizer (Comirnaty) vaccine.

Simplistically put and based on the above figures you are likely to have an adverse reaction in approx. 70,100 doses (+5,100 from the previous week) and a fatal reaction in approx. 1.017-million doses (-333,000 from the previous week).

To date there have been six deaths linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. Details:

1. 48-year old woman from NSW. Posted 16 April 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. NSW woman’s fatal blood clotting likely linked to AstraZeneca COVID vaccine, Therapeutic Goods Administration says.

2. A 52-year old woman from NSW. Posted 10 June 2021 via the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA). COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 10-06-2021.

3. A 61-year old woman from WA. Posted 8 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Death of 61-year-old WA woman last month likely linked to AstraZeneca vaccine.

4. A 72-year old woman from SA. Posted 12 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. South Australian woman dies from rare blood clots after receiving AstraZeneca vaccine.

5. A 48-year old woman from Victoria. Posted 22 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. TGA links deaths of 44yo Tasmanian man and 48yo Victorian woman to AstraZeneca vaccine

6. A 44-year old man from Tasmania. Posted 22 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. TGA links deaths of 44yo Tasmanian man and 48yo Victorian woman to AstraZeneca vaccine

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) by Age Group as at 11 July 2021

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has updated its latest safety report with one new confirmed death announced. Via the TGA. COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 15-07-2021. Summary:

  • The most frequently reported suspected side effects associated with Comirnaty (Pfizer) and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines continue to be events that were seen in the clinical trials, and are commonly experienced with vaccines generally.
  • As reported by South Australian Health authorities on 12 July 2021, sadly a 72-year-old woman from South Australia has died from TTS following vaccination with a first dose of the AstraZeneca vaccine. This case was confirmed to be linked to the vaccine and was reported in last weeks’ report.
  • Seven additional cases of blood clots with low blood platelets have been assessed as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) likely to be linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. When assessed using the United Kingdom (UK) case definition, four were confirmed and three were deemed probable TTS. This brings the total number of cases of TTS to 83 from 5.4 million doses administered to date.
  • We continue to closely monitor reports of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) and Guillain-Barre Syndrome (GBS) following vaccination with the AstraZeneca vaccine and myocarditis and pericarditis with the Comirnaty vaccine.

Simplistically put and based on the above figures you are likely to have an adverse reaction in every approx. 65,000 doses (no change) and a fatal reaction in approx. every 1.350-million doses (down from 1.6-million).

To date there have been four deaths linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. They include:

1. 48-year old woman from NSW. Posted 16 April 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. NSW woman’s fatal blood clotting likely linked to AstraZeneca COVID vaccine, Therapeutic Goods Administration says.

2. A 52-year old woman from NSW. Posted 10 June 2021 via the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA). COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 10-06-2021.

3. A 61-year old woman from WA. Posted 8 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Death of 61-year-old WA woman last month likely linked to AstraZeneca vaccine.

4. A 72-year old woman from SA. Posted 12 July 2021 via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. South Australian woman dies from rare blood clots after receiving AstraZeneca vaccine.

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) by Age Group as at 4 July 2021

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has updated its latest safety report with one new confirmed death announced. Via the TGA. COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 08-07-2021. Summary:

  • The most frequently reported suspected side effects (link is external) associated with Comirnaty (Pfizer) and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines continue to be events that were seen in the clinical trials, and are commonly experienced with vaccines generally.
  • An external Vaccine Safety Investigation Group (VSIG), convened by the TGA on 2 July 2021, concluded that a very rare but fatal case of immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) in a 61-year-old woman who had received the AstraZeneca vaccine was likely to be related to immunisation.
  • Seven additional cases of blood clots with low blood platelets have been assessed as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) likely to be linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. When assessed using the United Kingdom (UK) case definition, three were confirmed TTS and four were deemed probable TTS. This brings the total number of cases of TTS to 76 out of five million doses to date.

Simplistically put and based on the above figures you are likely to have an adverse reaction in every approx. 65,000 doses and a fatal reaction in approx. every 1.6-million doses.

To date there have been three deaths linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. The latest reported fatality via the Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Death of 61-year-old WA woman last month likely linked to AstraZeneca vaccine. Excerpt:

Health authorities have concluded the death of a 61-year-old woman in hospital last month was likely linked to the AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine. The West Australian woman received the vaccine in early June and was admitted to Royal Perth Hospital later that month, where she died of a blood disorder.

The federal government’s Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) investigated the woman’s death, with an external vaccine safety investigation group of experts deeming the vaccination the likely cause. It based that conclusion on a strong lack of evidence for other causes and the timeframe within which she died after taking the vaccine.

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) by Age Group as at 27 June 2021

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has updated its latest safety report with no new confirmed deaths reported. Via the TGA. COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 01-07-2021. Summary:

  • The most frequently reported suspected side effects associated with Comirnaty (Pfizer) and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines continue to be events that were seen in the clinical trials, and are commonly experienced with vaccines generally.
  • Five additional cases of blood clots with low blood platelets have been assessed as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) likely to be linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. When assessed using the United Kingdom (UK) case definition, two were confirmed and three were deemed probable TTS. This brings the total number of cases of TTS to 69.

To date there have been approximately 4.6-million doses of AstraZeneca administered to 30 June (h/t CovidBaseAU) and two confirmed TTS deaths linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine.

It’s also worth noting that younger people are volunteering to get the AstraZeneca jab after the Prime Minister’s surprise announcement earlier this week. We should see that data flow through to next weeks report.

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) by Age Group

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has updated its latest safety report with no new deaths reported. Via the TGA. COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 24-06-2021. Summary:

  • The most frequently reported suspected side effects associated with Comirnaty (Pfizer) and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines continue to be events that were seen in the clinical trials, and are commonly experienced with vaccines generally.
  • Five additional cases of blood clots with low blood platelets have been assessed as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) likely to be linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. When assessed using the UK case definition, three were confirmed and two were deemed probable TTS. However, following reassessment of a previously reported case as being unlikely to be TTS, there is only a net increase of four cases. This brings the total number of cases of TTS to 64.
  • We are also monitoring reports of suspected myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination with Comirnaty and suspected Guillain-Barre Syndrome following vaccination with the AstraZeneca vaccine. No causal association with either vaccine has been established at this stage.

There have been approximately 4.2-million doses of AstraZeneca administered to 21 June (h/t Jack). On 17 June 2021, the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) recommended that Pfizer’s Comirnaty vaccine be preferred over the AstraZeneca vaccine for those aged 16–60 years old. To date there have been two TTS deaths linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine meaning you have an approx. 1/2.1-million chance of dying.

Get vaccinated!

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) to 13 June 2021

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has updated its latest safety report with no new deaths being reported. Via the TGA. COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 17-06-2021. Summary:

  • The most frequently reported suspected side effects associated with Comirnaty (Pfizer) and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines continue to be events that were seen in the clinical trials, and are commonly experienced with vaccines generally.
  • Twelve additional cases of blood clots with low blood platelets have been assessed as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) likely to be linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. The increase in the number of cases correlates with an increase in the number of doses of AstraZeneca vaccine administered during the reporting period.
  • This brings the total number of confirmed and probable TTS cases in Australia to 60. Seven of the 12 new cases occurred in individuals in aged between 50 and 59 years. When assessed using the United Kingdom (UK) case definition, three cases were confirmed and nine were deemed probable TTS.

No data was available in this report on AstraZeneca vaccines administered (in the previous week 3.3-million doses were confirmed). At the same time the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) recommended the age to receive a dose be increased from 50 to 60. To date there have been two TTS deaths linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS)

AstraZeneca is in the news this week after the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) reported the death of a 52-woman from New South Wales from thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS). This is the second fatality linked to the AstraZeneca vaccination roll-out following the death of a 48-year old female in April. As tragic as the deaths are there have been almost 3.3-million doses of AstraZeneca administered (to the 6th June 2021) with just 48-cases of TTS being reported to date. For context it looks like you could expect an adverse reaction resulting in death in 1 in every 1.65-million doses. According to Ian Mackay from Virology Down Under “It’s a real number. A real risk. But a very rare one”.

Random Analytica: Australia COVID-19 cases by day

Here is a look at the total Australian cases by day since the 100th case was recorded on the 10th March 2020.

As at 6.00am on the 9th April 2020, there have been 6,052 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia, including 50-deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 0.83%.

200409_Chart_CasesByDay_Australia

Key Dates:

28th March: Travel restrictions imposed. All travellers entering Australia must undergo 14-days of isolation.
16th March: Social distancing measures adopted across all States and Territories.
13th March: Tom Hanks and Peter Dutton confirmed as having COVID-19. Measures to prevent spread tightened including social distancing measures.
18th February: Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) launched.

Table: Total Cases by State

200409_Table_TotalCases_Australia

Random Analytica: Jakarta (Indonesia) COVID-19 cases by day

Jakarta is emerging as another COVID-19 pandemic hotspot. Unfortunately the data is really problematic to find prior to the 19th March. What is officially available is limited due to a lack of testing capability (among other issues). As an example the data available had Jakarta cases totalling 77 (to the 18th March), then a big jump of 133-cases (19th March) then hardly any cases with just five. This very low amount occurred on the 20th March which was also hari Jumat/Friday.

On the official numbers.

As at the 11th April 2020, there have been 1,949 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city of Jakarta, Indonesia, including 159-deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 8.16%.

200411_Chart_JakartaCasesByDay

Here is a look at the official numbers for COVID-19 deaths in Jakarta.

200411_Chart_JakartaDeathsByDay

** Special thanks to Anne Barker (ABC) for her assistance and Pak Agus Wibowo for his data tweets.

Key Dates:

10th April: Australia’s ambassador is withdrawn due to COVID-19.
31st March: Indonesia implements a ban on foreign visitors.
23rd March: Via the ABC. Coronavirus COVID-19 death rate in Indonesia is the highest in the world. Experts say it’s because reported case numbers are too low.
6th March: Indonesia restricts visitors from Iran, Italy & South Korea.