Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Tag: COVID-19

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) by Age Group

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has updated its latest safety report with no new deaths reported. Via the TGA. COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 24-06-2021. Summary:

  • The most frequently reported suspected side effects associated with Comirnaty (Pfizer) and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines continue to be events that were seen in the clinical trials, and are commonly experienced with vaccines generally.
  • Five additional cases of blood clots with low blood platelets have been assessed as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) likely to be linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. When assessed using the UK case definition, three were confirmed and two were deemed probable TTS. However, following reassessment of a previously reported case as being unlikely to be TTS, there is only a net increase of four cases. This brings the total number of cases of TTS to 64.
  • We are also monitoring reports of suspected myocarditis and pericarditis following vaccination with Comirnaty and suspected Guillain-Barre Syndrome following vaccination with the AstraZeneca vaccine. No causal association with either vaccine has been established at this stage.

There have been approximately 4.2-million doses of AstraZeneca administered to 21 June (h/t Jack). On 17 June 2021, the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) recommended that Pfizer’s Comirnaty vaccine be preferred over the AstraZeneca vaccine for those aged 16–60 years old. To date there have been two TTS deaths linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine meaning you have an approx. 1/2.1-million chance of dying.

Get vaccinated!

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) to 13 June 2021

The Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) has updated its latest safety report with no new deaths being reported. Via the TGA. COVID-19 vaccine weekly safety report – 17-06-2021. Summary:

  • The most frequently reported suspected side effects associated with Comirnaty (Pfizer) and AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccines continue to be events that were seen in the clinical trials, and are commonly experienced with vaccines generally.
  • Twelve additional cases of blood clots with low blood platelets have been assessed as thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) likely to be linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine. The increase in the number of cases correlates with an increase in the number of doses of AstraZeneca vaccine administered during the reporting period.
  • This brings the total number of confirmed and probable TTS cases in Australia to 60. Seven of the 12 new cases occurred in individuals in aged between 50 and 59 years. When assessed using the United Kingdom (UK) case definition, three cases were confirmed and nine were deemed probable TTS.

No data was available in this report on AstraZeneca vaccines administered (in the previous week 3.3-million doses were confirmed). At the same time the Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (ATAGI) recommended the age to receive a dose be increased from 50 to 60. To date there have been two TTS deaths linked to the AstraZeneca vaccine.

Random Analytica: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine and cases of Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS)

AstraZeneca is in the news this week after the Therapeutic Goods Administration (TGA) reported the death of a 52-woman from New South Wales from thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS). This is the second fatality linked to the AstraZeneca vaccination roll-out following the death of a 48-year old female in April. As tragic as the deaths are there have been almost 3.3-million doses of AstraZeneca administered (to the 6th June 2021) with just 48-cases of TTS being reported to date. For context it looks like you could expect an adverse reaction resulting in death in 1 in every 1.65-million doses. According to Ian Mackay from Virology Down Under “It’s a real number. A real risk. But a very rare one”.

Random Analytica: Australia COVID-19 cases by day

Here is a look at the total Australian cases by day since the 100th case was recorded on the 10th March 2020.

As at 6.00am on the 9th April 2020, there have been 6,052 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia, including 50-deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 0.83%.

200409_Chart_CasesByDay_Australia

Key Dates:

28th March: Travel restrictions imposed. All travellers entering Australia must undergo 14-days of isolation.
16th March: Social distancing measures adopted across all States and Territories.
13th March: Tom Hanks and Peter Dutton confirmed as having COVID-19. Measures to prevent spread tightened including social distancing measures.
18th February: Australian Health Sector Emergency Response Plan for Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) launched.

Table: Total Cases by State

200409_Table_TotalCases_Australia

Random Analytica: Jakarta (Indonesia) COVID-19 cases by day

Jakarta is emerging as another COVID-19 pandemic hotspot. Unfortunately the data is really problematic to find prior to the 19th March. What is officially available is limited due to a lack of testing capability (among other issues). As an example the data available had Jakarta cases totalling 77 (to the 18th March), then a big jump of 133-cases (19th March) then hardly any cases with just five. This very low amount occurred on the 20th March which was also hari Jumat/Friday.

On the official numbers.

As at the 11th April 2020, there have been 1,949 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the city of Jakarta, Indonesia, including 159-deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 8.16%.

200411_Chart_JakartaCasesByDay

Here is a look at the official numbers for COVID-19 deaths in Jakarta.

200411_Chart_JakartaDeathsByDay

** Special thanks to Anne Barker (ABC) for her assistance and Pak Agus Wibowo for his data tweets.

Key Dates:

10th April: Australia’s ambassador is withdrawn due to COVID-19.
31st March: Indonesia implements a ban on foreign visitors.
23rd March: Via the ABC. Coronavirus COVID-19 death rate in Indonesia is the highest in the world. Experts say it’s because reported case numbers are too low.
6th March: Indonesia restricts visitors from Iran, Italy & South Korea.

Random Analytica: NSW COVID-19 cases by age (to 25th March 2020)

NSW COVID-19 cases hit 1,029 today. I was interested enough to have a quick look into the NSW Health’s excellent web-page. Although they supply a lot of data and charts I couldn’t see a ‘bee hive’ graphic or the age pyramid. Given NSW has just topped 1,000 cases I thought it might be worthwhile doing the chart on their behalf.

My big take-outs from looking at the chart is the uniformity of cases from ages 20 – 29 to 60 – 69 for both men and women. That’s your core working age cohort. That’s when most people travel for work and pleasure. Looks like this disease will predominately target workers in its first wave.

Second takeout. There are just two children aged 0 -9 yet eleven people aged 90 or more. Children obviously less likely to present with COVID-19. I’ll let better minds than mine figure that one out.

Chart below: NSW Age Pyramid of NSW COVID-19 cases to the 25th March 2020 (n = 1,029).

200325_Chart_NSWxAge

Source: NSW Health

200325_Screenshot_NSWHealth

Random Analytica: Australian Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by calendar week

The daily COVID-19 numbers are escalating quickly. If you think the daily numbers are worrisome take a step back and consider the weekly new case numbers.

In the past week the new cases increased almost five-fold.

Chart below: Australian cases by week. My chart time period commences from Monday 20th January 2020 with the first confirmed COVID-19 presentation on the 25th January.

200324_Table_AUSStatesWkNo

Random Analytica: Australian Coronavirus (COVID-19) cases by day (to the end March 2020)

Here is a look at the Australian cases by day since the first known case which presented on the 25th January 2020.

As at 6.30am on the 31st March 2020, there have been 4,359 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia, including 18-deaths. The Case Fatality Rate (CFR) based on those numbers is 0.41%.

200331_Chart_AUSCasesByDay_FINAL

Via the Australian Department of Health. Coronavirus (COVID-19) health alert. Notes with a table detailing cases by location:

As at 6:30am on 31 March 2020, there have been 4,359 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. There have been 266 new cases since 6:30am yesterday.

Of the 4,359 confirmed cases in Australia, 18 have died from COVID-19. More than 230,000 tests have been conducted across Australia.

200331_Table_AUSStatesCaseNo_FINAL

* Note that under National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System reporting requirements, cases are reported based on their Australian jurisdiction of residence rather than where they were detected. For example, a case reported previously in the NT in a NSW resident is counted in the national figures as a NSW case.

** Includes Diamond Princess repatriation cases: QLD (3), SA (1), VIC (4), WA (2, including 1 death)