Liberia | Random Analytica

October 10, 2014

Random Analytics: Ebola in Liberia (to 5 Oct 2014)

The Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare has released its latest numbers with their data confirmed to 5 October 2014.

The Ebola in Liberia infographic charts the spread of the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) by county. Each figure represents 10 lives. Note: The cases versus deaths in Maryland County are not a typo with the Ministry recording 8-cases and 9-deaths.

According to the latest data from Liberia a further 28-cases were recorded in the 24-hours from 4 to 5 October 2014. By county the new cases were reported in:

Grand Cape Mount (x1)
Lofa (x3)
Margibi (x11)
Montserrado (x13)

At the same time another 21-fatalities were recorded. New fatalities by county were reported in:

Grand Cape Mount (x1)
Margibi (x4)
Montserrado (x16)

To the Lost

Data Sources

[1] Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Liberia Ebola Sitrep no. 142. Government of Liberia. Accessed 10 October 2014.
[2] Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Liberia Ebola Sitrep no. 143. Government of Liberia. Accessed 10 October 2014.

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September 16, 2014

Random Analytics: Ebola in Liberia (March to 11 Sep 2014)

The Ministry of Health and Social Welfare in Liberia has just updated their Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) data up to and including cases and fatalities to 11 September 2014. When I did my last update on 19 August 2014 I made note that the case numbers had topped 1,000 and deaths were nearing 600. As you can see by the following infographic the clinical cases have now breached 2,500 and the deaths have more than doubled to more than 1,300.

Updating the Ebola in Liberia infographic for September on my Random Analytics site forced me to look back at the data story for that country which has been fluid with a lot missed opportunities and a lot more that has gone down the memory hole. I thought it might be worthwhile putting together a short montage of my data stories which focus on the cases and fatalities since the start of the outbreak by month.

I think the biggest data point’s for me is the fact that EVD hit Liberia, effectively disappeared from a data and a policy perspective then mysteriously came back with a vengeance. It doesn’t make any sense to me and I think represents a massive own goal by the Liberian government as well as a lack of situational awareness by the intergovernmental bodies which were set-up to ensure that these type of situations don’t spin out of control.

Data Sources

[1] d-maps.com. Liberia / Republic of Liberia. Accessed 22 August 2014.
[2] Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Liberia Ebola Sitrep no. 119. Government of Liberia. Accessed 15 September 2014.

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August 22, 2014

Random Analytics: Ebola in Liberia (to 19 Aug 2014)

It is noteworthy that over the past 24-hours we have received confirmation from the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare that the confirmed, probable and suspected cases of Ebola have now topped 1,000.

The Ebola in Liberia by County infographic details the cases and fatalities from Ebola. Each Country which is impacted by Ebola is listed with individuals listed as confirmed, probable, suspected then deceased. The provisional CFR is based on those total numbers.

Three Counties now have case counts in the hundreds including Lofa (455-cases), Monterrado (272-cases) which also includes the capital Monrovia and Bong (103-cases). Two Counties now have fatalities in the hundreds including Lofa (235) and Montserrado (212-cases).

The outbreak is ongoing so these numbers are still very provisional.

The other interesting find from doing this infographic was the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare data has some issues.

I’ve highlighted the data anomalies (where confirmed, probable and suspected cases are less than the deaths). This could be an issue of how they have structured the original document (where case lines are opposite to death lines making it easy to input the wrong data).

I suspect that the analysts in the Ministry are under a lot of pressure. I’ll pass on my findings to ReliefWeb and the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare for their review and consideration.

Data Sources

[1] d-maps.com. Liberia / Republic of Liberia. Accessed 22 August 2014.
[2] Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare. Liberia Ebola Sitrep no. 96. ReliefWeb. Accessed 22 August 2014.

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August 8, 2014

Random Analytics: The West African Ebola Outbreak (to 4 Aug 2014)

Here are some updated charts and infographics of the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak using a number of primary sources including the most recent World Health Organisation Disease Outbreak News (DON) released 6 August 2014.

***** Please note that all EVD infographics in this series were updated with public source information to 4 August 2014 *****

Ebola (Top 10 Outbreaks by Case Numbers)

The first chart displays the top 10 outbreaks in order of case numbers. Each horizontal bar is filled with the flag(s) of the country where the outbreak occurred.

With clinical cases reaching 691 in Guinea, 516 in Liberia, 495 in Liberia and nine in Nigeria the West African outbreak has now become largest Ebola outbreak in history based on both case numbers (1711) and fatalities (932). The second largest outbreak was of the Ebola Sudan strain which occurred in Uganda (2000) when 425 became infected and 224 died. The recent outbreak is the first to migrate across international land borders. The only other recording of an EVD that jumped borders prior to this outbreak was the Gabon/RSA (1996) outbreak. In that instance a doctor caught the disease in Gabon and subsequently took an international flight to South Africa where he became ill and infected other Health Care Workers (HCWs).

Ebola (Cases by Classification and Year)

The second chart shows cases by classification (in order they are Ebola Zaire, Sudan, Bundibugyo, Reston and Ivory Coast) by year and then split into those recovered or those deceased (which follows in a red variant). The West African outbreak has become the most significant in terms of case numbers, eclipsing the 1976 dual outbreaks which saw 603 cases and 431 deaths (a combined Case Fatality Rate of 71.5%).

Currently the provisional Western African outbreak has seen 1711 cases and 932 deaths (a CFR of 54.5%).

Notes: Several years had just one case. They are 1972 (a retrospective fatality of Ebola Zaire in Zaire), 1977 (a single case of Ebola Zaire in Zaire), 1988 (an accidental infection of Ebola Zaire in Porton Down, UK) and 2011 (a single fatality of Ebola Sudan in Uganda).

The West African Outbreak – Cases & Fatalities by Month

The final chart shows both case numbers and fatalities by month. Each column is split into the current four impacted countries with data represented by the varying national flags.

The very interesting data point that springs out from this chart is that the DON I utilised for this only had data for the first four days of the month yet cases are already 271 and fatalities are 106. It should be noted that those figures are not exact as the DON that covered the month rollover between July and August had to be estimated (using a 50/50% split).

Acknowledgements: Data for this infographic was sourced from official reports from the World Health Organisation. I have also utilised resources from the CDC, CIDRAP, FluTrackers, and H5N1. I’m also a big fan of the analytical work of Virology Down Under (Ian Mackay) and Mens et Manus (Maia Majumder).

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July 30, 2014

Random Analytics: Ebola in Liberia (to 30 Jul 2014)

I have now been doing Random Analytics since October 2012 and analytics on Ebola itself was my sixth post (having been interested in the subject since I read The Hot Zone in the mid 1990’s. I’ve been doing complete posts on the subject recently, by impacted 2014 country, by African exposure, by top 10 outbreaks and by classification and year but this outbreak is moving faster than I can keep up with. I’ll now just concentrate on infographics that don’t get done in the mainstream narrative (or my flublogist colleagues don’t do). If you want to follow the detail more closely then follow Crawford Kilian, Ian Mackay or Maia Majumber (who does the dangdest infographics in the flublogist space).

Ebola in Liberia (to 30 July 2014)

***** Please note that this EVD infographic was updated with public source information to 2100hrs 30 July 2014 (EST) *****

As I go to print the overall Ebola situation can be found in the latest World Health Organisation advice (circa 27 July 2014). This infographic comes from the latest information from the Liberian Ministry of Health and Social Welfare via reliefweb. Situation Report No. 72 on the EBOLA Virus disease epidemic in Liberia as of 29th May to 28 July 2014. Detail:

Highlights

Lofa County

Bakedou

Citizens and CHSWT have reached a compromise to allow health workers to investigate and follow up cases. Unofficial: About 15 persons are currently ill.

Voinjama

One of the two patients in the holding room left against medical advice and relocated to Zorzor Curran Hospital. However, specimen was taken.

Bong County

There no lab technician to collect specimen

Bomi County

There is no trained personnel to manage cases – Also, there is no lab technician to collect specimen

Nimba County

Family of confirmed case continuously refuses to allow patient to be carried to treatment facility

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June 25, 2014

Random Analytics: Ebola 2014 (to 25 Jun 2014)

Here are some charts and infographics of the 2014 Ebola Virus Disease outbreak.

Ebola Outbreak (Guinea Prefectures 2014)

***** Please note that this EVD infographic was updated with public source information to 0900hrs 25 June 2014 (EST) *****

The above infographic looks at the breakdowns by Prefecture of EVD cases and fatalities within Guinea. Data sourced from Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update 23 June 2014.

Ebola Outbreak (Sierra Leone Districts 2014)

***** Please note that this EVD infographic was updated with public source information to 0900hrs 25 June 2014 (EST) *****

The above infographic looks at the breakdowns by District of EVD cases and fatalities within Sierra Leone. Data sourced from Ebola virus disease, West Africa – update 23 June 2014 and the latest Sierra Leone Ministry of Health update (via FluTrackers).

Ebola across Africa

***** Please note that this EVD infographic was updated with public source information to 0900hrs 25 June 2014 (EST). EVD types are EBOV = Ebola Zaire, SUDV = Ebola Sudan, BDBV = Ebola Bundibugyo and TAFV = Ebola Ivory Coast *****

The Ebola across Africa infographic details the country specific outbreaks of the EVD since it was first discovered in 1976 (with a 1972 retrospective case from Zaire included). As the map shows the bulk of the outbreaks have occurred within central Africa and the most deadly, Ebola Zaire causing the most cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formally Zaire). The most recent outbreak has actually occurred in West Africa, originating from Guinea and is a new isolate of Ebola Zaire (Gueckedou and Kissidougou).

As an additional point of interest I have also added the Health Expenditure per capita for each country in 2012 $USD (source: World Bank).

Notes: The 1976 – 2004 outbreaks of Ebola Sudan occurred in the bottom half of Sudan (now South Sudan). Zaire was renamed the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1997.

Ebola (Top 10 Outbreaks by Case Numbers)

***** ***** Please note that this EVD infographic was updated with public source information to 0900hrs 25 June 2014 (EST) *****

The next chart displays the top 10 outbreaks in order of case numbers and each horizontal bar is filled with the flag of the country where the outbreak occurred. With clinical cases reaching 344 in Guinea, 81 in Sierra Leone and 12 in Liberia the EBOV17 coded outbreak has now become largest (437) based on case numbers. The second largest outbreak (SUDV4) was of Ebola Sudan in Uganda (2000) when 425 became infected and 224 died. The recent outbreak is the first to migrate across international land borders. The only other recording of an EVD that jumped borders prior to this outbreak was the 10^th worst outbreak (EBOV8) when a doctor caught the disease in Gabon and subsequently took an international flight to South Africa where he became ill and infected other health workers.

Notes: EBV outbreaks in order from lowest to highest. 10^th: EBOV8 (Gabon/South Africa), 9^th: EBOV9 (Gabon), 8^th: EBOV11 (Republic of Congo), 7^th: BDBV01 (Uganda), , 6^th: EBOV15 (Democratic Republic of Congo), 5^th: SUDV1 (technically Sudan but would now be South Sudan), 4^th: EBOV6 (Zaire but now the DRC), 3^rd: EBOV2 (Zaire but now the DRC), 2^nd: SUDV4 (Uganda) and the current, now deadliest outbreak EBOV17 (Guinea/Liberia/Sierra Leone).

Ebola (Cases by Classification and Year)

***** Please note that this EVD infographic was updated with public source information to 0900hrs 25 June 2014 (EST) *****

The final chart shows cases by classification (Ebola Zaire, Sudan, Bundibugyo, Reston and Ivory Coast) by year and then split into those recovered or those deceased (following in a red variant). From 24 June this latest outbreak has become the most significant in terms of case numbers, eclipsing the 1976 dual outbreaks which saw 603 cases and 431 deaths (a combined Case Fatality Rate of 71.5%).

Currently the provisional Western African outbreak has seen 604 cases and 350 deaths (a CFR of 57.9%).

Key Facts: (source: Fact Sheet 103, WHO, last updated March 2014)

The Ebola virus causes Ebola virus disease (EVD; formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever) in humans;
EVD outbreaks have a case fatality rate of up to 90%;
EVD outbreaks occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests;
The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission;
Fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family are considered to be the natural host of the Ebola virus;
No specific treatment or vaccine is available for use in people or animals.

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June 10, 2014

Random Analytics: Ebola 2014 (to 9 Jun 2014)

The latest outbreak of Ebola which had been on the decline in early May has now returned with a vengeance. According to the latest update from the World Health Organisation (Regional Office for Africa) there have been 437-clinical cases and 232 fatalities. Guinea has borne the brunt of the disease with 344-clinical cases (215-deaths), the second impacted country Liberia has had 12-clinical cases (11-deaths) and newly impacted country of Sierra Leone has had 81-cases (6-deaths). These numbers are still likely to change.

According to my notes, this outbreak is now the worst on record in terms of case numbers, extending beyond the 425-cases (224-deaths) experienced during the Ebola Sudan outbreak in Uganda back in 2000-2001. Another two grim milestones is that this is the first Ebola outbreak to cross a land border and the first outbreak to impact on three separate countries.

Here are four charts/infographics looking at the most recent outbreak.

Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak (Guinea Prefectures 2014)

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 1200hrs 9 June 2014 (EST) *****

From the World Health Organisation Regional Office for Africa. Ebola virus disease, West Africa (Situation as of 5 June 2014). Excerpt:

Guinea

Between 2 and 3 June 2014, 11 new cases (8 confirmed, 1 probable and 2 suspected) and 3 new deaths were reported from Conakry (7 new cases and 1 death), Guéckédou (2 new cases and 1 death), Telimele (1 new case and 0 death) and Boffa (1 new case and 1 death). This brings the cumulative total number of cases and deaths attributable to EVD in Guinea to 344 (laboratory confirmed 207, probable 81 and suspected 56) including 215 deaths.

The geographical distribution of these cases and deaths is as follows: Conakry (65 cases and 27 deaths; Gueckedou, 193 cases and 143 deaths; Macenta, 44 cases and 26 deaths; Dabola, 4 cases and 4 deaths; Kissidougou, 7 cases and 5 deaths; Dinguiraye, 1 case and 1 death; Telimele, 23 cases and 5 deaths; and Boffa, 7 cases and 4 deaths. In terms of isolation, 31 patients are currently hospitalized (6 in Conakry, 9 in Guéckédou, 15 in Telimele and 1 in Boffa).

Sierra Leone

Between 2 and 5 June 2014, 9 new suspected cases were reported bringing the total number of EVD clinical cases to 81 (31 confirmed, 3 probable, and 47 suspected) including 6 deaths. Kailahun district is the epicentre of the outbreak in Sierra Leone. Eleven (11) cases are currently in isolation at Kenema Hospital. The number of contacts currently being followed-up is 30. Community resistance is hindering the identification and follow-up of contacts.

Notes: The map graphic was taken from Wikipedia (then amended).

Ebola across Africa

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 1200hrs 9 June 2014 (EST). EBOV = Ebola Zaire, SUDV = Ebola Sudan, BDBV = Ebola Bundibugyo and TAFV = Ebola Ivory Coast *****

As an additional point of interest I have also added the Health Expenditure per capita for each country in 2012 $USD (source: World Bank).

Notes: The 1976 – 2004 outbreaks of Ebola Sudan occurred in the bottom half of Sudan (now South Sudan). Zaire was renamed the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1997.

Ebola (Top 10 Outbreaks by Case Numbers)

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 1200hrs 9 June 2014 (EST) *****

Ebola (Cases by Classification and Year)

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 1200hrs 9 June 2014 (EST) *****

The final chart shows cases by classification (Ebola Zaire, Sudan, Bundibugyo, Reston and Ivory Coast) by year and then split into those recovered or those deceased (following in a red variant). As you can see the initial outbreak in 1976 of the both Ebola Zaire and Ebola Sudan was the most significant year with 603 cases and 431 deaths (a combined Case Fatality Rate of 71.5%). With up to 437 clinical cases so far the 2014 Ebola Zaire outbreak is now the second worst in terms of case numbers.

Key Facts: (source: Fact Sheet 103, WHO, last updated March 2014)

The Ebola virus causes Ebola virus disease (EVD; formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever) in humans;
EVD outbreaks have a case fatality rate of up to 90%;
EVD outbreaks occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests;
The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission;
Fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family are considered to be the natural host of the Ebola virus;
No specific treatment or vaccine is available for use in people or animals.

Acknowledgements: Data for this infographic was sourced from official reports from the World Health Organisation. I have also utilised resources from the CDC, CIDRAP, H5N1, Virology Down Under and National Geographic.

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April 23, 2014

Random Analytics: Ebola 2014 (update to 23 Apr 2014)

“This study demonstrates the emergence of a new EBOV strain in Guinea,” New England Journal of Medicine (22 April 2014).

The latest outbreak of Ebola Zaire, which is ongoing, has now reached 242-clinical cases and taken the lives of 147. Guinea has borne the brunt of the disease with 208-clinical cases (136-deaths) and Liberia 34 clinical cases (11-deaths, revised down from 13). Previously reported cases in Mali and Sierra Leone have either been confirmed as Lassa fever or Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) negative. Although recent cases are tapering off these numbers are still likely to change.

The World Health Organisation has a comprehensive update issued on the 22 April 2014.

As part of a post-graduate program I am undertaking I have built a five-minute Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) lesson utilising just four graphs and six-dot points.

1. Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak (Guinea/Liberia 2014) * UPDATED *

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 2000hrs 23 April 2014 (EST) *****

From the World Health Organisation. Ebola virus disease, West Africa (Situation as of 22 April 2014). Excerpt:

As of 18:00 on 20 April, the Ministry of Health (MOH) of Guinea has reported a cumulative total of 208 clinical cases of Ebola Virus Disease (EVD), including 136 deaths. To date, 169 patients have been tested for ebolavirus infection and 112 cases have been laboratory confirmed, including 69 deaths. In addition, 41 cases (34 deaths) meet the probable case definition for EVD and 55 cases (33 deaths) are classified as suspected cases. Twenty-five (25) health care workers (HCW) have been affected (18 confirmed), with 16 deaths (12 confirmed).

Clinical cases of EVD have been reported from Conakry (53 cases, including 23 deaths), Guekedou (122/87), Macenta (22/16), Kissidougou (6/5), Dabola (4/4) and Djingaraye (1/1). Laboratory confirmed cases and deaths have been reported from Conakry (37 cases, including 19 deaths), Guekedou (60/38), Macenta (13/10), Kissidougou (1/1) and Dabola (1/1). These updated figures include 3 new cases isolated on 20 April from Conakry and Guekedou, 2 of whom are laboratory confirmed. Five new deaths have also been reported among existing cases; all 5 of the deaths were patients with confirmed EVD. Twenty-one (21) patients were in isolation in Conakry (12), Guekedou (8) and Macenta (1), while 16 patients who recovered from their illness were discharged from hospital.

Notes: The map graphic was taken from Wikipedia (then amended).

2. Ebola across Africa * UPDATED *

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 0800hrs 23 April 2014 (EST). EBOV = Ebola Zaire, SUDV = Ebola Sudan, BDBV = Ebola Bundibugyo and TAFV = Ebola Ivory Coast *****

As an additional point of interest I have also added the Health Expenditure per capita for each country in 2012 $USD (source: World Bank).

Notes: The 1976 – 2004 outbreaks of Ebola Sudan occurred in the bottom half of Sudan (now South Sudan). Zaire was renamed the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1997.

3. Ebola (Top 10 Outbreaks by Case Numbers) * UPDATED *

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 0800hrs 23 April 2014 (EST) *****

The next chart displays the top 10 outbreaks in order of case numbers and each horizontal bar is filled with the flag of the country where the outbreak occurred. With clinical cases reaching 208 in Guinea and 34 in Liberia the EBOV17 coded outbreak has now become sixth largest (242) based on case numbers. The largest outbreak (SUDV4) was of Ebola Sudan in Uganda (2000) when 425 became infected and 224 died. The only other recording of an EVD that jumped borders prior to this outbreak was the 10^th worst outbreak (EBOV8) when a doctor caught the disease in Gabon and subsequently took an international flight to South Africa where he became ill and infected other health workers.

Notes: In order from lowest to highest. 10^th: EBOV8 (Gabon/South Africa), 9^th: EBOV9 (Gabon), 8^th: EBOV11 (Republic of Congo), 7^th: BDBV01 (Uganda), 6^th: EBOV17 (Guinea/Liberia/Mali), 5^th: EBOV15 (Democratic Republic of Congo), 4^th: SUDV1 (technically Sudan but would now be South Sudan), 3^rd: EBOV6 (Zaire but now the DRC), 2^nd: EBOV2 (Zaire but now the DRC) and 1^st: SUDV4 (Uganda).

4. Ebola (Cases by Classification and Year) * UPDATED *

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 0800hrs 23 April 2014 (EST) *****

The final chart shows cases by classification (Ebola Zaire, Sudan, Bundibugyo, Reston and Ivory Coast) by year and then split into those recovered or those deceased (following in a red variant). As you can see the initial outbreak in 1976 of the both Ebola Zaire and Ebola Sudan was the most significant year with 603 cases and 431 deaths (a combined Case Fatality Rate of 71.5%). With up to 242 clinical cases so far the 2014 Ebola Zaire outbreak is now the fifth worst in terms of case numbers.

Key Facts: (source: Fact Sheet 103, WHO, last updated March 2014)

The Ebola virus causes Ebola virus disease (EVD; formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever) in humans;
EVD outbreaks have a case fatality rate of up to 90%;
EVD outbreaks occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests;
The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission;
Fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family are considered to be the natural host of the Ebola virus;
No specific treatment or vaccine is available for use in people or animals.

Acknowledgements:Data for this infographic was sourced from official reports from the World Health Organisation. I have also utilised resources from the CDC, CIDRAP, H5N1, Virology Down Under and National Geographic.

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April 21, 2014

Random Analytics: Ebola Outbreak in Guinea/Liberia (to 21 Apr 2014)

“Our priority is to continue to care for the people infected with the Ebola virus,” Henry Gray, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) Emergency Coordinator, Guinea (18 April 2014).

The latest outbreak of Ebola Zaire, which is ongoing, has now infected up to 230-persons and taken the lives of 142. Guinea has borne the brunt of the disease with 203 infections (129-deaths) and Liberia 27 infections (13-deaths). Previously reported cases in Mali and Sierra Leone have shown to be negative. These numbers are still likely to change.

The World Health Organisation has a comprehensive update issued on the 17 April 2014 (care of FluTrackers).

As part of a post-graduate program I am undertaking to build a five-minute Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) lesson utilising just four graphs and six-dot points. Here is the final chart! I’ll update the other three chart(s) to align the information as the next update becomes available:

New Chart – Ebola Virus Disease Outbreak (Guinea/Liberia 2014)

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 2345hrs 20 April 2014 (EST) *****

The most impacted area of this EVD outbreak is in the Guekedou Prefecture with the outbreak spreading over the border to neighbouring Liberia.

Notes: The map graphic was taken from public source data from Wikipedia (and amended).

Key Facts: (source: Fact Sheet 103, WHO, last updated March 2014)

The Ebola virus causes Ebola virus disease (EVD; formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever) in humans;
EVD outbreaks have a case fatality rate of up to 90%;
EVD outbreaks occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests;
The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission;
Fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family are considered to be the natural host of the Ebola virus;
No specific treatment or vaccine is available for use in people or animals.

Acknowledgements:Data for this infographic was sourced from official reports from the World Health Organisation. I have also utilised resources from the CDC, CIDRAP, H5N1, Virology Down Under and National Geographic.

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April 15, 2014

Random Analytics: Ebola across Africa (to 14 Apr 2014)

***** Note: If you would like a more updated version of this series of charts then please check out Random Analytics: Ebola across Africa (to 1 Oct 2014) *****

“We are pleased to say we have controlled the spread of the epidemic,” Francois Fall, Foreign Minister, Guinea (14 April 2014).

The latest outbreak of Ebola Zaire, which is ongoing, has now infected up to 200-persons and taken the lives of 121. Guinea has borne the brunt of the disease with 168 infections (108-deaths), Liberia 26 infections (13-deaths) and there are six suspected cases in Mali. These numbers are still likely to change.

The World Health Organisation has a comprehensive update issued on the 14 April 2014.

As part of a post-graduate program I am undertaking to build a five-minute Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) lesson utilising just five graphs and six-dot points. Here is the latest chart along with previous updated chart(s):

New Chart – Ebola across Africa

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 0800hrs 15 April 2014 (EST). EBOV = Ebola Zaire, SUDV = Ebola Sudan, BDBV = Ebola Bundibugyo and TAFV = Ebola Ivory Coast *****

The Ebola across Africa infographic details the country specific outbreaks of the EVD since it was first discovered in 1976 (with a 1972 retrospective case from Zaire included). As the map shows the bulk of the outbreaks have occurred within central Africa and the most deadly variant, Ebola Zaire causing the most cases in the Democratic Republic of Congo (formally Zaire). Although the reasons are unclear the most recent outbreak has actually occurred in West Africa, originating from Guinea. As an additional point of interest I have also added the Health Expenditure per capita for each country in 2012 $USD (source: World Bank).

Notes: The 1976 – 2004 outbreaks of Ebola Sudan occurred in the bottom half of Sudan (now South Sudan). Zaire was renamed the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1997.

Chart 2 – Ebola (Top 10 Outbreaks by Case Numbers) * UPDATED *

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 0800hrs 15 April 2014 (EST) *****

The next chart displays the top 10 outbreaks in order of case numbers and each horizontal bar is filled with the flag of the country where the outbreak occurred. With confirmed/suspected cases in Guinea (168), Liberia (26) and Mali (6) the EBOV17 coded outbreak has now become sixth largest based on case numbers. The largest outbreak (SUDV4) was of Ebola Sudan in Uganda (2000) when 425 became infected and 224 died. The only other recording of an EVD that jumped borders prior to this was in the 10^th worst outbreak (EBOV8) when a doctor caught the disease in Gabon and subsequently caught an international flight to South Africa where he became ill and infected other health workers.

Chart 3 – Ebola (Cases by Classification and Year) * UPDATED *

***** Please note that this infographic of the EVD was updated with public source information to 0800hrs 15 April 2014 (EST) *****

The final chart shows cases by classification (Ebola Zaire, Sudan, Bundibugyo, Reston and Ivory Coast) by year and then split into those recovered or those deceased (following in a red variant). As you can see the initial outbreak in 1976 of the both Ebola Zaire and Ebola Sudan was the most significant year with 603 cases and 431 deaths (a combined Case Fatality Rate of 71.5%). With up to 200 confirmed/suspected cases so far the 2014 Ebola Zaire outbreak is now the fifth worst in terms of case numbers.

Key Facts: (source: Fact Sheet 103, WHO, last updated March 2014)

The Ebola virus causes Ebola virus disease (EVD; formerly known as Ebola haemorrhagic fever) in humans;
EVD outbreaks have a case fatality rate of up to 90%;
EVD outbreaks occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests;
The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission;
Fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family are considered to be the natural host of the Ebola virus;
No specific treatment or vaccine is available for use in people or animals.

Acknowledgements: Data for this infographic was sourced from official reports from the World Health Organisation. I have also utilised resources from the CDC, CIDRAP, H5N1, Virology Down Under and National Geographic.

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Tag: Liberia