Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Tag: South Africa

March 1, 2018

Random Analytica: Australian tour of South Africa – First Chance Average (FCA)

The Australian cricket team are touring South Africa from late February to early April 2018.

For the history of the game a batters average has been calculated on their final score. In 2014 to complement the standard average I developed the First Chance Average (FCA) which looks at what a batters average would look like after they had been dropped OR given a legitimate chance. In the past few weeks I have been improving the metric and putting together my first comprehensive analysis using the Australian touring side of South Africa as a model.

An introduction to the First Chance Average using the test career of Adam Voges can be found here.

Here is a look at the First Chance Averages of the 2018 Australian squad touring South Africa. I’ll be updating the charts as the tour progresses (see UPDATES).

CAMERON BANCROFT180401_CameronBancroft_Final

PRE-TOUR: Cameron Bancroft commenced the tour with a standard average of 25.57 and under a bit of a cloud with Richard Hinds suggesting that Matt Renshaw might have earned a recall. Prior to South Africa his last score was a duck against England (2018) and in the preceeding eight innings he had not recorded a legitimate chance.

DURBAN: Scores of 5 & 53 with no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 38 & 24. Cameron has now had 12 test innings without giving the opposition a single chance. His FCA continues to remain aligned to his standard average.
CAPE TOWN: A 77 in the first innings which hinted at the possibility of a permanent position. The second innings score of 26 was overshadowed by Cameron’s direct involvement in ball tampering. He was subsequently given a nine-month ban by Cricket Australia and flew home before the fourth test at Johannesburg.

JOE BURNS180403_JoeBurns

PRE-TOUR: Joe Burns was parachuted into the team at short notice after the ball tampering scandal in Cape Town for the last test. Prior to the Johannesburg test his last test scores were an uninspiring 1 and 0 against South Africa (Hobart, Dec 2016).

JOHANNESBURG: A jet-lagged first innings score of 4. Got in and then got out for 42 in the second. No chances.

PAT CUMMINS180403_PatCummins

PRE-TOUR: Pat Cummins returns to South Africa (after a long break) with a pretty solid standard average of 27.60 and an FCA of 19.17 (with three chances). Prior to Durban his last score was 24* against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 3 and 26 with no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: A golden duck then 5. No chances
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 4 then a duck. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: A maiden test 50 in the first innings. One in the second. No chances.

PETER HANDSCOMB180403_PeterHandscomb

PRE-TOUR: Peter Handscomb has been on tour but hasn’t had a chance to bat prior to Johannesburg in any of the three previous tests. During the Ashes he got the opportunity to bat three times and his last score was 12 (Adelaide, 2017).

JOHANNESBURG: A golden duck and 24. No chances.

JOSH HAZELWOOD180403_JoshHazelwood

PRE-TOUR: Josh Hazelwood started the tour with 274-runs, a standard average of 11.91 and an FCA of 9.39 (with four chances). At the end of the Ashes he had recorded 17-not outs in 40-innings (42.5%). His last score prior to the tour was 1* against England (Melbourne, 2017).

DURBAN: Scores of 2* & 9* with no chances. With those scores he now has 19 not-outs from 42-innings (45.2%).
PORT ELIZABETH: 10* and then 17 in 17-balls. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 10 & 5. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: Scores of 1* & 9*. No chances.

USMAN KHAWAJA180403_UsmanKhawaja

PRE-TOUR:

Bancroft vs. Renshaw might have been the cricket conversation prior to tour commencing in South Africa but I had a thought that Usman Khawaja might be the batter in trouble.

Usman Khawaja commenced the tour with a healthy standard average of 45.80 but his First Chance Average was a much lower 34.96 after nine-chances. He has scored 1,608 Earned Runs with a volatility of 22.0% which is extremely high. His last score was 171 against England (Sydney, 2018) BUT his 2017 year was very ordinary.

FCA stats for 2017: 129 Earned Runs. Four Chances plus 127 First Chance Runs with a volatility of 49.6%.

One to watch.

DURBAN: Disappointing start with a 14, then 6 in the second innings while reverse sweeping?
PORT ELIZABETH: First innings score of 4 but a tough chance was put down when still on a duck (Earned Runs then = 0). In the second innings Usman grafted out a score of 75 without a chance. Enough done to lock him in for the rest of the tour.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 1 without a chance in both innings. If Usman doesn’t fire at Johannesburg I would find it hard to see how he would tour again with the Australian squad.
JOHANNESBURG: Showed some ticker during the 1st innings reaching 53 then 7 in the second innings.

NATHAN LYON180403_NathanLyon

PRE-TOUR: Nathan commenced the tour with standard average of 11.61 and a FCA of 11.14 after just five chances. His pre-tour volatility is a miserly 2.5% which means he looks after his wicket either as a tailender or as the night watchman which he gets promoted to consistently. Prior to South Africa his last score was 29 against England (Melbourne, 2017).

DURBAN: 1st innings score of 12 after being dropped on two, then a second innings score of two after being dropped on one. Prior to Durban Nathan had not presented a chance to the opposition since he was caught but not given out in Port Elizabeth way back in February 2014.
PORT ELIZABETH: A first innings score of 17 then 5.
CAPE TOWN: Nathan scores 47 in the first innings but was dropped on 32. He then scores a duck in the second innings. Nathan’s new high score is now 47 but his FCA high score remains as 40*.
JOHANNESBURG: A first innings score of 8. Run-out for 9 in the second innings. No chances.

MITCHELL MARSH180403_MitchellMarsh

PRE-TOUR: Mitchell commenced the tour with standard average of 29.24 and no chances, thus no FCA after 39-innings. Prior to South Africa his last score was 101, his second century against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 96 and 6 with one chance in the 1st innings, a tough one while on 42.
PORT ELIZABETH: Sick as a dog Mitchell scored 4 in the first innings and then 45 in the second.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 16. No chances.
JOHANNESBURG: Mitchell’s mixed bag tour of South Africa continues. A score of 4 in the 1st innings and a duck in the second.

SHAUN MARSH180403_ShaunMarsh

PRE-TOUR: Shaun commenced the tour averaging 40.87 (standard) and 29.69 (FCA) after nine chances. It should be noted that his Earned Run volatility is a high 25.8% but that has been reducing as he put together some solid scores during 2017. Prior to South Africa his last score was 156 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Shaun commenced the tour with solid scores of 40 & 33 and no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 24 and 1. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 26 and 0. No chances. Hmnn…
JOHANNESBURG: Shaun got a chance on 15 when Quintin De Kock got stung by a bee when he should have been stumping the batsmen! Went on to add just the single run, out for 16. Just seven in the second innings. No chances.

TIM PAINE180403_TimPaine

PRE-TOUR: Tim’s chart should be viewed in two parts with four tests in 2010 then a long break to 2017. He commenced the tour averaging 39.92 (standard) and 30.67 (FCA) after two chances in 2010. His high score of 92 came after two drops (0 & 86) thus his FCA high score is his more recent 57. Prior to South Africa his last score was 38* against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 25 & 14.
PORT ELIZABETH: A decent last partnership knock of 36 in the 1st innings and then 28* in the second.
CAPE TOWN: One of the few highlights of the tour has been Tim Paine’s lower order batting. Scores of 34* and 9* without a chance. His solid batting, keeping and seniority are all factors in Tim being promoted to captain as Steve Smith and David Warner are stood down over the ball tampering incident.
JOHANNESBURG: Tim Paine with a fractured thumb gets 62 after being dropped by Faf de Plessis on 48 in the first innings. 7 in the second innings. Interesting First Chance stat here. Tim Paine has four half-centuries and three chances. If those chances had all been taken he would only have one half-century.

MATT RENSHAW180403_MattRenshaw

PRE-TOUR: Matt Renshaw was finishing up a fantastic domestic season for Queensland and was given the call-up while he was still scoring his unbeaten 81* against Tasmania in the Sheffield Shield final. He didn’t play in the Ashes after being dropped after the Bangladesh tour where he scored 4 and 22 (Chittagong, 2017).
JOHANNESBURG: Unfortunately, his domestic form deserted him in the final test. Scored 8 then 5.  Was dropped by Bavuma on 2 in the second innings. Jet-lag could have been a factor.

STEVE SMITH
180401_SteveSmith_Final

PRE-TOUR: Steve Smith is the real deal. He commenced the tour with an impressive standard average of 63.76 and a FCA of 54.67 (with 19-chances). Prior to South Africa his last score was 83 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 56 and 38 including a tough chance in the 1st innings when he was 47.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 25 and 11. Interestingly his scores since Melbourne without the FCA are in an almost perfect decline, that is 102*; 83, 56, 38, 25 & 11.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 5 and 7. No chances. Steve Smith is stood down as the captain during the test over a ball tampering incident. In addition he is given a one-match ban by the ICC and a 12-month ban by Cricket Australia. He returned home before the Johannesburg test.

MITCHELL STARC180326_MitchellStarc

PRE-TOUR: Mitchell Starc is the big hitting bowler who can bat on occassion. He commenced the tour with a standard average of 23.15 and a FCA of 18.78 after 9-chances. Prior to South Africa his last score was 11 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Scores of 35 and 7. No chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: Scores of 8 and 1. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: Scores of 2 and 7. No chances.

DAVID WARNER180326_DavidWarner

PRE-TOUR: David Warner commenced the tour with impressive averages of 48.78 (standard) and 40.61 (FCA) with 23-chances to-date. He has scored 989 first chance runs (15.9%) which is high but reflective of the openers position he has held for the majority of his test career. Prior to South Africa his last score was 56 against England (Sydney, 2018).

DURBAN: Solid start with scores of 53 & 28 and no chances.
PORT ELIZABETH: 63 in the first innings (and was looking in good shape too) then 13. No chances.
CAPE TOWN: First innings score of 30. Second innings score of 32 with a missed stumping chance on 31. David is also caught up in the ball tampering incident and is stood down as Vice Captain of the team during the third test. He is subsequently given a 12-month ban by Cricket Australia and returns home before the Johannesburg test.

 

UPDATES

1/03/2018: (1st Session) Added Cameron Bancroft (5). (2nd Session) – Added Steve Smith (56)
2/03/2018: (1st Session) Added Pat Cummins (3). (2nd Session) Added Josh Hazelwood (2*).
5/03/2018: Updated Cameron Bancroft (53); Smith (38); Cummins (26) & Josh Hazelwood (9*). Added Mitchell Marsh (96 & 6).
6/03/2018: Added David Warner (51 & 28).
7/03/2018: Updated charts to include NO* data. Added Usman Khawaja (14 & 6).
9/03/2018: Added Shaun Marsh (40 & 33). Updated Bancroft (38); Khawaja (FC-0/4); Warner (63); Smith (25); S. Marsh (24); M. Marsh (4); Cummins (0) & Hazelwood (10*).
10/03/2018: Updated charts to include a volatility direction. Added Tim Paine (25, 14 & 36).
11/03/2018: Added Mitchell Starc (35, 7 & 8).
12/03/2018: Updated 2nd Innings scores including Warner (13); Bancroft (24); Smith (11); S. Marsh (1) & Khawaja (75). Added Nathan Lyon (12, 2 & 17). Updated 2nd innings scores of M. Marsh (45); Cummins (5); Lyon (5); Hazelwood (17) & Paine (28*).
23/03/2018: Updated 1st innings scores to lunch including Warner (30) & Khawaja (5). Updated 1st innings scores to tea including Smith (5); S. Marsh (26) & Bancroft (77). Updated 1st innings scores to stumps on Day 2 including M. Marsh (5); Cummins (4); Starc (2) & Lyon (47).
25/03/2018: Updated the final 1st innings scores including Hazelwood (10) & Paine (34*).
26/03/2018: Updated the entire second innings including Bancroft (26); Warner (32); Khawaja (1); S. Marsh (0); Smith (7); M. Marsh (16); Cummins (0); Starc (7); Lyon (0); Hazelwood (5) & Paine (9*).
1/04/2018: Updates from the Johannesburg test, Day 2. Added Joe Burns (4); Peter Handscomb (0) and Matt Renshaw (8). Updates for M. Marsh (4); S. Marsh (16) and Khawaja (53).
2/04/2018: Updates from the Johannesburg test, Day 3. Updates for Cummings (50); Lyon (8) and Paine (62). Note: Chadd Sayers was out for a duck in his debut innings so I haven’t added him at this stage.
3/04/2018: Updates from Johannesburg, Day 4. Renshaw (5); Khawaja (7) and Burns (42). Updates from Day 5. S. Marsh (7); M. Marsh (0); Cummins (1); Paine (7); Lyon (9) and Hazlewood (9*). No updates for Sayers still as he was out for a duck.

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July 12, 2013

Random Analytics: Ebola! (2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of Ebola were updated with public source information to 12 July 2013 EST *****

I continue to remain morbidly fascinated by Ebola.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) states that EHF is a severe acute viral illness often characterized by the sudden onset of fever, intense weakness, muscle pain, headache and sore throat. This is followed by vomiting, diarrhoea, rash, impaired kidney and liver function, and in some cases, both internal and external bleeding. Laboratory findings show low counts of white blood cells and platelets as well as elevated liver enzymes. People are infectious as long as their blood and secretions contain the virus. Ebola virus was isolated from seminal fluid up to the 61st day after the onset of illness in a laboratory acquired case. The incubation period (interval from infection to onset of symptoms) varies between 2 to 21 days. During EHF outbreaks, the case-fatality rate for the three fatal strains has varied from outbreak to outbreak between 24.8% and 89.5%.

Key Facts (issued August 2012 via the WHO):

  • The Ebola virus causes severe viral haemorrhagic fever (VHF) outbreaks in humans.
  • Viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks have a case fatality rate of up to 90%.
  • Ebola haemorrhagic fever outbreaks occur primarily in remote villages in Central and West Africa, near tropical rainforests.
  • The virus is transmitted to people from wild animals and spreads in the human population through human-to-human transmission.
  • Fruit bats of the Pteropodidae family are considered to be the natural host of the Ebola virus.
  • There is no treatment or vaccine available for either people or animals.

There were three outbreaks of EHF in 2012, two occurring in August and a later outbreak in November.

The first two were almost concurrent outbreaks, one of Ebola Sudan in Uganda and another of Ebola Bundibugyo in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The Uganda outbreak, in the Kibaale District would infect 24 and kill 17 including 12 members of the same family. The DRC outbreak, in the Province Orientale would eventually infect 77 and kill 36.

Barely a month after calling and end to Kibaale outbreak (and coincidentally an outbreak of Marburg) the Ugandan Ministry of Health had to deal with a second Ebola Sudan occurrence. The 2nd Ugandan outbreak, this time in the Luweero and Kampala Districts would infect seven and kill four.

As recently as late May 2013 it was thought that another outbreak had occurred in the DRC. Although there was an occurrence of some disease testing found that it was not EHF as noted by the CIDRAP News scan on the 4th June 2013.

There has also been some discussion about the possible progress in the fight against Ebola via an FDA research program in late June 2013 (a good abstract on this via H5N1) I thought it might be time to review one of my first WordPress articles, a piece on Ebola completed in October 2012.

Here is some spruced up analysis and analytics, including some updated data from the 2012 outbreaks in Uganda and the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Infographic

The following infographic looks at some of the key dates and incidents in the history of the Ebola Haemorrhagic Fever (EHF). If you also want an idea of what the virus looks like I have included a photo of the disease under an electron micrograph (top right hand corner!).

01 - Ebola_Infographic_130713

Cases by Country and EHF strain

This infographic packs in a lot of information. First of all the circle sizes represent the amount of cases per country, split according to colour representing the four known strains of the disease. The known strains found in Africa are:

  • EBOV: Ebola Zaire (or the Ebola Virus). Colour: Orange;
  • SUDV: Ebola Sudan (or the Sudan Virus). Colour Green;
  • BDBV: Ebola Bundibugyo (or the Bundibugyo Virus). Colour Violet;
  • TAFV: Ebola Ivory Coast (or the Tai Forest Virus). Colour Brown.

Each country has additional details including total number of cases, fatalities and Case Fatality Rate (CFR).

It should be noted that I have not included a number of known laboratory incidents which have occurred outside of Africa and have resulted in at least one death (Koltsovo, Russia). I also have not included any details about the Ebola Reston which was exported in Philippine crab-eating macaque monkeys to the United States and Italy from 1989 through to 1992. Ebola Reston is not known to be dangerous to humans.

Note: I have created this infographic using Tableau Public software which can be viewed here.

02 - Ebola_CasesbyCountry_130713

CFR by Year and Strain

The final infographic looks at the Case Fatality Rates.

Each line represents a known occurrence of Ebola by onset year. If the outbreak has not completed within a calendar year the data is included from the date of the first onset. Thus the Dec 2008 – Feb 2009 Kasai-Occidental Ebola Zaire outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo which infected 32 and killed 15 is included as the 2008 EBOV line.

03 - Ebola_CFRbyTypeOnsetYear_130713

Final Thoughts

Although there have been no known outbreaks of EHF in 2013 it remains a highly visible reminder of our inability to completely dominate our natural space. Many other diseases infect, damage and kill more people but Ebola seems to have a special place in our high-speed mythology. No doubt this is due to its awful characteristics and super high case fatality rates. Amplification by movies such as Outbreak (made in 1995 but still watchable today) or by the writings of Tom Clancy and others who consistently turn the disease into a weapon adds to its macabre allure.

We are just a month away from August, the onset timings for both the opening 2012 outbreaks.

Will 2013 prove to be another deadly year?

Acknowledgements: The new and improved analysis could not have happened without Crawford Kilian and his H5N1 blog and the writings of Tara C. Smith (including her early work via Stanford University) but more recently her articles for National Geographic. Each disease I look at brings out a couple of new, highly specialised subject matter experts and Tara’s writings are excellent.

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