Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Tag: Taiwan

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 5 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 6 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130506

Infographic Details

In the past 48-hours of reporting there has been one new case of H7N9 with no new fatalities. This brings the total for China to 129-cases including 27-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that all totals include asymptomatic cases.

To date 20.8% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were 2 discharges over the past 24-hours, both from Shanghai. With the additional two discharges the recovered total now moves to 38 (29.2%). Asymptomatic cases remain at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 3rd May 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CasesbyRegion_130505

Cases by Region (including Taiwan) to 5 May 2013

Here is a look at the Cases by Region data which closes out Week 11 of the avian influenza A(H7N9).

Zhejiang continues to have the most cases (46) with 19 recovered and six deaths.

With 33-cases and 13-deaths Shanghai has the most deaths and the highest Work-In-Progress Case Fatality Rate, currently 39.4%. That municipality also had the first case.

Beijing still has the only confirmed asymptomatic case.

Taiwan has the only non-mainland China case, that of a man who was working in Jiangsu and flew home before displaying any symptoms.

Fujian had the most recent confirmed case.

Lastly, for the first time since the H7N9 became a known issue there are now more case outcomes than there are patients being treated. Of note is that positive outcomes outweigh negative outcomes.

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 3 May 2013)

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 3 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 4 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130504

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there have been no new cases of H7N9 and no new fatalities, although the 27th fatality (without specifics) was reported by Xinhua. This brings the total for China to 128-cases including 27-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that all totals include asymptomatic cases.

To date 20.9% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were 10 discharges over the past 24-hours, all from Zhejiang and just 17-hours after I discussed the lack of detail from that province. Although Xinhua detailed the case of Cao it didn’t provide any detail of the 9 other outpatients discharged today. With ten H7N9 cases cleared that would bring the total recovered to 36 (27.9%). Asymptomatic cases remain at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 3rd May 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CumulativeCases_Zhejiang_130504

Zhejiang: 17-hours later

Yesterday I looked at cumulative cases for Zhejiang, the most impacted to date by H7N9.

At that time there were 46-cases with 6-deaths and 6-recoveries and no new reported cases in 14-days.

How 17-hours can make a difference.

There have been only two Xinhua H7N9 stories released in the past 24-hours. The first confirmed the 27th fatality but did not provide details of the two most recent victims. The second story detailed the recovery of Cao who had recovered from the severest of symptoms thus far.

It also stated:

Nine other H7N9 patients were also discharged on Friday from the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhejiang University.

I have updated yesterday’s chart with the data input provided. I’d advise that this is a look at the cases, fatalities, recoveries and Work-In-Progress (WIP) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Zhejiang only and might be useful. Given the percentile of known H7N9 cases for Zhejiang are very low and those still receiving treatment remains above 50% the CFR should be seen as a useful guide only. Also of note is that Zhejiang has had no reported asymptomatic cases and as shown in the daily infographic we still have a ‘Fog of Flu’ or a lack of data around three-deaths and 12-recoveries which may impact this chart.

No data points jump out at me, but…

A long time ago I was a soldier, a communicator and a Cold War warrior who trained up against the best the Soviets were still pumping out in 1989/90.

I always remember my first ‘operational active’ exercise where I watch the Vladivostok fishing vessels trailing our combined fleet and being told that though most of this peace time force would be going through the motions, my efforts were real.

I was told that everything communicated was tracked, analysed and would be brought up in future operations. There were no ‘co-incidences’ in data…

Zhejiang had no new data for 2-weeks as of yesterday. It has some today.

Coincidence?

I’ll not leave it on a semi-pseudo conspiracy theory. I had a fantastic 3-tweet conversation with Crawford Kilian today. He stated that I was more literate but I would counter that he has a unique ability to be a superbly interesting chap on Twitter.

3 - @Crof

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 2 May 2013)

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 2 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 3 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130503

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there have been no new cases of H7N9 and as many as two fatalities, although only one death was fully reported via Xinhua. This brings the total for China to 128-cases including 26-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that this includes asymptomatic cases.

There have been a number of reports, supported by organisations such as CIDRAP and FluTrackers.com which put the number of fatalities at 27. Given that only one fatality was identified on the 2nd May and the numbers seem to be including that person on top of the 26 announced via  Xinhua in a weekly update I am going to keep my number at 26 until further information can be verified.

To date 20.2% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

Although there were no new announcements on discharges today a weekly report stated that 26 people had recovered from the disease. That would increase the recovery number to 26 (20.2%) and asymptomatic cases at one (0.7%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 2nd May 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CumulativeCases_Zhejiang_130503

Cumulative Cases (Zhejiang)

Yesterday I looked at cumulative cases (just cases and deaths) across the entire H7N9 dataset.

Today I thought a look at the cases, fatalities, recoveries and Work-In-Progress (WIP) Case Fatality Rate (CFR) for Zhejiang only might be useful. Given the percentile of known H7N9 cases are very low and those still receiving treatment remains just below 70% the CFR should be seen as a useful guide only. Also of note is that Zhejiang has had no reported asymptomatic cases and as shown in the daily infographic we still have a ‘Fog of Flu’ or a lack of data around two deaths and three recoveries which may impact on this chart.

Two data-points jump out at me.

Firstly, would be the lower WIP CFR of 13%, much lower than the entire disease average which stands at (20.2%) today.

The second and more interesting data-point is that after a sharp rise in cases between 2 April and 18 April (where new cases reported averaged 2.3 per day) there have been no cases reported now for 14-days.

I have always thought that data that is 100% correct or 100% absent is unusual and worth looking into further.

The fact that there has been no data from Zhejiang for two weeks is ‘unusual’.

Note: My previous post on H7N9 can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 1 May 2013)

Updates (3/05/2013)

  • Updated Infographic section with note about 27th fatality.

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 1 May 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 1 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130502

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there has been one new case, reported from Hunan Province and for the second consecutive day, no new fatalities. This brings the total for China to 128-cases including 24-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that this includes asymptomatic cases.

To date 18.6% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were no new announcements on discharges today. With no new data the current count of recoveries remains at 25 (19.4%) and asymptomatic cases at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 29th April 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - CumulativeCases_130502

Cumulative Cases

Here is a look at the cumulative cases, fatalities and current Case Fatality Rate (CFR). Given the percentile of known H7N9 cases are still receiving treatment remains above 60% the CFR should be seen as a useful guide only.

Two interesting data-points from this chart. The first is that the cumulative cases have only increased by 10 over the past five days, averaging just 2 a day over a territory larger than South Africa and a population of more than half a billion.

The second item is that since mid-April the Case Fatality percentile has remained steady between the ranges of 18.3% – 22.2%.

What will tomorrow bring?

Note: My previous post on this can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 30 Apr 2013)

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 30 Apr 2013)

***** Please note that the infographics/charts of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus presented were updated with public source information to 0001hrs 1 May 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130501

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there has been one new case, reported from Fujian Province and no new fatalities. This brings the total for China to 127-cases including 24-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. Note that this includes asymptomatic cases.

To date 18.8% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were no new announcements on discharges today. With no new data the current count of recoveries remains at 25 (19.5%) and asymptomatic cases at one (0.8%).

The most recent fatality reported by Chinese media was on the 29th April 2013 via Xinhua.

2 - RecoveryByAge_130501

Recovery by Age Cohort

A lot has been made in recent weeks of the concentration of older victims of H7N9.

The average age of those who have died has been 65 but looking at it from a different angle, the average age of those who have recovered currently stands at 45.9.

Today’s additional chart looks at those patients who have been discharged from hospital and where we have their age data. It should be noted that I’ve included Meng, the two-year old from Shanghai as a boy even though his or her gender has not been confirmed.

Whereas 56.5% of the H7N9 deceased have been aged 65 or greater only 29.2% of those who recovered are in a similar age cohort. If you make a similar comparison of those aged 55 or above then its 73.9% fatalities against 45.8% recoveries.

To date, no one aged below 25 has died of the disease.

Note: My previous post on this can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 29 Apr 2013)

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 29 Apr 2013)

***** Please note that this infographic of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus was updated with public source information from late 29 Apr to early 30 April 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130430(U)

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours of reporting there have been no new cases but one new fatality. This brings the total for China to 126-cases including 24-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. (It should be noted that I from today I will be including asymptomatic cases, including that of a 4-year old Beijing boy which was confirmed in April. Asymptomatic cases will be represented by green figures).

Interestingly, the very late reports of the Fujian and Shandong cases from yesterday are being repeated today, thus some are discussing two new cases. Thanks so much to Crawford Kilian (@crof) for his constant updates.

To date 18.9% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

I was able to update my database today against provincial hospital announcements and have increased my known discharges by 5. This includes the most recent discharge, as reported by Xinhua, from Henan reported today. This brings the current count of recoveries to 25 (19.8%) and asymptomatic cases to one (0.8%).

The most recent reported fatality was on the 29th April 2013 via Channel News Asia.

2 - TwoHalves_130430

A Look at Two-Halves

When I saw that the total recovered had moved ahead of the total fatalities, I thought that in itself might make a good graph, however I have noticed a pickup in discharge announcements recently so I wanted to have a look that in a bit more detail. When I cut the data in half, that is had a look at the first 63 symptomatic cases against the following 63-cases, I found two interesting data points.

The first point is around fatality figures. For the first half 28.6% of cases have been fatal, while for the second half its currently 9.5%. Although this is interesting there is a strong possibility that these percentiles will increase as more data comes in. This brings me to my second interesting data-point.

The trajectory of discharges against deaths is increasing as we see improvements in response to the H7N9 outbreak. To be more specific, to reach 12 discharges (or 19.7% of 63) it took 18-deaths for the first 50% but only six for the last 50%.

I know it’s a bit early to make too much of this split but hopefully it means we are moving in the right direction against H7N9.

Note: My previous post on this can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 28 Apr 2013)

Updates (30/04/2013)

  • After much deliberation I finally added the Beijing asymptomatic case to my dataset and adjusted the infographic and percentiles accordingly. Many thanks to Helen Branswell (@HelenBranswell) and CIDRAP (@CIDRAP) specifically Lisa Schnirring for convincing me of my error.

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 28 Apr 2013)

***** Please note that this infographic of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus was updated with public source information from late 28 Apr to early 29 April 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130429(U)

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours there have been 5 new cases (2x Jiangxi, 1 Zhejiang, 1x Fujian and 1x Shandong) with no new deaths reported. This brings the total for China to 125-cases including 23-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. (It should be noted that I do not include the asymptomatic Beijing case in my count).

To date 18.3% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were no confirmed discharges in the past 24-hours, thus the current count of recovered remains at 20 (15.9%). Note: Prior to today when a four year old was confirmed with avian influenza A(H7N9) all known paediatrics and children had recovered.

The most recent fatality reported was on the 26th April 2013 via Jiangsu Health (in Chinese).

Final Thought

If the China Animal Agricultural Association numbers are to be believed the chicken industry will ‘in the hole’ a further ¥14,000,000,000 or according to Xinhua’s calculations would have experienced around $2.273-billion in direct losses (feeding of chickens that no one is buying, culling of chickens, lost productivity, maintenance and loss of breeding stock).

Xinhua reported that vegetable vendors are doing very well as customers change their purchasing habits to avoid chicken.

I’d also suggest that the European breed stock owners will be doing very well once the crisis is over as it sounds like the Chinese will need to do a lot of stock rebuilding.

Note: My previous post on this can be found at Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 27 Apr 2013)

Updates (29/04/2013)

  • Added another two cases (1x Fujian & 1x Shandong) which were reported by Xinhua at 23.55CET.

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 27 Apr 2013)

***** Please note that this infographic of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus was updated with public source information from late 27 Apr to early 28 April 2013 CET/EST *****

Sometime ago I was watching a documentary series on the Bikini atoll nuclear testing which included the 1 March 1954 Castle Bravo hydrogen bomb test. Due to some ‘unknown unknowns’ at the time the test was more powerful than predicted and contaminated huge amounts of the Pacific, including by chance the crew of the Diago Fukuryū Maru (Lucky Dragon 5), a Japanese fishing vessel some 40-miles (64-kilometres) away.

Now the radioactive winds were not supposed to travel in that direction, nor was the explosion predicted to be as large as it was. In some respects, the 23-crew of the Lucky Dragon 5 were just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130428

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours there has been confirmation of 2 new cases. No new fatalities have been reported. This brings the total for China to 120-cases including 23-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without loss of life. (It should be noted that I do not include the asymptomatic Beijing case in my count).

To date 19% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were six confirmed discharges in the past 24-hours, all from Zhejiang which takes the confirmed recoveries to 20 (16.8%). Note: All known paediatrics and children have recovered.

The most recent fatality reported was on the 26th April 2013 via Jiangsu Health (in Chinese).

2 - SpreadOfInfection

Random Chance

If the confirmed infection area, made up of two municipalities, eight provinces and Taiwan were a country it would span a territory roughly 1.227-million km², have a population of 596.1-million and a nominal Gross Domestic Product of $5.1-trillion (USD, 2011). For context that would make it the 25th largest country for land mass (slightly larger than South Africa), the third most populous country (almost double that of the United States) with the 4th highest GDP (approximately $600Bn less than Japan) and qualify it for membership into the G20.

Yet for the massive amount of territory H7N9 inhabits it has still only made 121 people sick enough to seek treatment and killed 23-persons. Even in Zhejiang, the province with the most confirmed cases you only have a 1:1,200,000 (approximate) chance of catching the disease!

Like the fishermen on the Lucky Dragon 5, currently to get the disease (and then to die of it) you need to extremely unlucky.

One thing about statistics though, they are just that until you become a victim.

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 26 Apr 2013)

***** Please note that this infographic of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus was updated with public source information from late 26 Apr to early 27 April 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130427(U)

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours there has been confirmation of 7 new cases and one fatality. This brings the total for China to 118-cases including 23-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without a fatality. (It should be noted that I do not include the asymptomatic Beijing case in my count).

To date 19.3% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

Although there were no confirmed discharges in the past 24-hours, six patients from Zhejiang will be released tomorrow. That would take the confirmed recoveries to 20 (16.8%). Note: All known paediatrics and children have recovered.

The most recent fatality reported was on the 26th April 2013 via Jiangsu Health (in Chinese).

2 - DeathByAge_130427(U)

Age at Death

Chinese media today reported the death of one of the earliest victims, a 32-year old woman from Jiangsu and confirmed the death 76-year old farmer from Zhejiang.

Of the 22-cases where death has been verified the average age was 64-years and 54.5% of the deaths were recorded in those over the age of 65. It should be noted that two deaths cannot be verified at this stage.

The youngest person to die was a 27-year old butcher from Shanghai with a history of hepatitis B. Being amongst the first victims of the disease he did not receive antiviral treatment until the second week (the recommended window for this treatment should be two days) and succumbed to the disease after 12-days.

At the other end of the age spectrum the oldest person to die at this stage was the first known victim, an 87-year old retiree from Shanghai who became ill on the 19th April and passed away on the 4th March. As an aside, his two younger sons (aged 69 and 55) also became ill around the same time. The younger one also succumbed to the disease while the older one has recovered. This could then be the first family cluster (although I leave it to those more knowledgeable to discuss).

Final Thought

Fujian is the 10th municipality or region to have a confirmed case. Although the case count is very low the spread of this respiratory disease must be concerning, especially given that the victims cover a landmass of more than a million square kilometres and house a population in excess of half a billion people.

—————————–

Updates (28/04/2013)

  • Correction. I double counted a death when I first published this blog and although publically available missed a confirmed      fatality update. All infographics updated accordingly along with the details (in bold).

Random Analytics: H7N9 Infographic (to 25 Apr 2013)

***** Please note that this infographic of the Avian Influenza A(H7N9) virus was updated with public source information from late 25 Apr to early 26 April 2013 CET/EST *****

1 - H7N9_Infographic_130426(U)

Infographic Details

In the past 24-hours there has been confirmation of 3 new cases and no additional fatalities. This brings the total for China to 111-cases including 23-deaths and Taiwan to 1-case without a fatality. (It should be noted that I have not included the suspected Jiangxi case as it has not been confirmed by the Centre for Health Protection or the asymptomatic Beijing case in my count).

To date 20.5% of all known cases have been fatal. For context the Case Fatality Rate of SARS was 10.9%.

There were no confirmed discharges in the past 24-hours. The confirmed recoveries remain static at 14 (12.5%). (Note: I have also made a change to the infographic to track paediatrics and children. 0 – 2 year olds will be shown as a baby symbol and 3 – 12 year olds will be shown as a small girl/boy symbol.)

The most recent fatality reported was on the 24th April 2013 via Xinhua.

I’m a Workforce Analyst (doing an Economics Masters) so one of the metrics I have been tracking is what confirmed cases do for employment. Currently I have 72-inputs and as shown in the infographic the top five employments were Retired, Farmer, Unemployed, Live Poultry Trade and Chef/Cook.

The Lancet today suggested that avian influenza A(H7N9) comes from wet market chickens (for a brief overview I’d suggest viewing Crawford Killian H5N1 update with relevant links). Given the high average age of those presenting and the fact that they would do a lot of food preparation you can start to see a confluence of data to support that. Of the five top job titles, four would have significant exposure to chickens.

Here’s a look at the top 20 incidences by job title (I have not included 3 confusing data inputs due to machine translation issues. For interest only they are 1x company employee and 2x freelance (and if anyone out there can translate these please send me a tweet @gmggranger).

2 - JobTitle_130426

Final Thought

I’m only a recent China watcher but many economists that I follow and talk to agree that Chinese economic data needs to have the ‘trust and verify’ test before it can be validated and utilised for analysis. If you need some more background on this then Stephen Koukoulas, an Australian economist and former advisor to the current Prime Minister Julia Gillard discussed this recently in a Business Spectator article.

Unfortunately the avian influenza A(H7N9) will not have a lot of outside inputs to China that can be verified and tracked. With numbers of new victims levelling off somewhat in recent days I’d be interested to see what happens outside of China, especially in Taiwan or another East Asian country if the virus spreads further.