Random Analytica

Random thoughts, charts, infographics & analysis. Not in that order

Tag: War

Random Analytica: Ukraine. Russian Losses (May 2022)

Updated with data as at 17th May 2022.

It’s Victory Day in Moscow this month and Russia is facing serious setbacks in its war against Ukraine. So, for the month of May 2022, I’m tracking Russian combat losses. Specifically, troops, tanks, Armoured Personnel Carriers, artillery systems and Multi Launch Rocket System losses.

At the end of April, the Ministry of Defence, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 23,200 troops. As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 27,900 troops (+4,700 this month averaging approximately 276 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition. Pick up of Russian casualties since late August (200+ 26/04 – 8/05). Ukrainians started reported in units of 50 on the 9th May (with 150-dead).

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 1,008 tanks. As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 1,235 tanks (+227 this month averaging approximately 13 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition. The Ukrainians were reporting 10+ Russians tanks destroyed for 15-consecutive days until the 8th May (when only eight were reported). The numbers over the last week have been less that the highs in late April and early May.

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 2,445 Armoured Personnel Carriers (APCs). As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 3,009 Armoured Personnel Carriers (+564 this month averaging approximately 33 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition. From the 17th April through to 11th May the Ukrainians are saying they have knocked out a minimum of 20 APCs per day. 25-days straight!

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 436 artillery pieces/systems. As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 578 artillery pieces/systems (+142 this month averaging approximately 8 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition of artillery systems. A big day of losses reported on the 16th May. Would be an interesting backstory.

At the end of April, Ukraine estimated the Russians had lost 151 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS). As at 17th May 2022 the Ukrainians are estimating the Russians have lost 198 MLRS (+47 this month averaging approximately 3 per day).

Quick data point(s): Steady attrition with a big loss on the 3rd May.

 

Slava Ukraini.

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Random Analytica: Ukraine. Russian Combat Losses estimated at 23,200

I fondly remember having an interesting discussion with another Veteran mate of mine (Vietnam era) who told me that Putin was the smartest card player he had ever seen. As he told me “Putin always seems to be beating guys with a pair of twos. Every time!”.

Hat-tip Bob, you know who you are. They called his bluff.

Russia is losing a lot of troops in Ukraine. Russian won’t discuss numbers but there is some anecdotal data around that suggests the number of Russian dead in the first two months of the war is over 20,000. The Ministry of Defence, Ukraine is estimating that the number of Russian combat losses today hit 23,200. I looked at the attrition rate for Russian combat troops since the Ukraine Military commenced daily updates on the 3rd April 2022.

Short analysis. Terrible strategic tactics by Russia. Another Georgia but on a bigger scale. Terrible tactics by Russia on the ground. Combat dead equals 10% of everyone deployed on 24th February. That means every Russian soldier who deployed basically knows someone who is dead or injured (in just two months of war). Imagine that. The morale on the ground must be absolutely smashed.

I trained for WWIII. Watching it live is surreal. Stay safe.

Slava Ukraini

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Submission to the Royal Commission into Defence and Veteran Suicide

My story starts in 1999 when I first self-reported about mental health concerns. To the best of my knowledge I am the only person to self-report from Operation Baritone (1997).

Two years prior, on the 22nd March 1997 the online company from 3 Brigade including a detachment from the 103rd Signal Squadron of which I was a part, commenced deployment operations for an airlift to Port Moresby as part of a Company Group deployment.

It was the first stage of a larger plan to ‘temporarily’ re-occupy Papua New Guinea during the Sandline Affair.

Things were moving very quickly. The medics and doctors were under intense pressure to get us out the door. A memory from pre-deployment was of the RMO making their notes on the back of the soldier in front of me, then the same for the next in line.

As part of our pre-deployment the company was given a number of medications including a mefloquine loading dose over three days to counteract malaria. After recent investigations I found that anti-malarials was not noted in my official medical records. I have since been able to prove that I was given mefloquine via my Red Cross blood donation history.

Long story short, the Sandline Affair works itself out without Australian intervention and Company Group is given a leave pass to get on the drink. So close though. Another Fiji, 1987.

For many years, I did not remember any detail from this period until a series of ‘flash-backs’ in 2018/19 become so bad that they hospitalised me. Ironically, it is on the 22nd anniversary of Operation Baritone I was finally admitted to a mental health facility.

Mefloquine sent me insane. I attempted suicide in 1997, 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2014. When I finally confirmed what the Army had done to me in early 2019 I was angry but also a little relieved. I could finally die with a little peace.

When enough memory had returned that I was able to prove the mefloquine exposure I tried to inform all the relevant authorities. Entities such as the Army HQ, the DVA were not interested in finding these men. The Australian Defence Force Malaria and Infectious Disease Institute and the Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade References Committee were sympathetic but unhelpful.

In summary:

A company of soldiers were given mefloquine in 1997, a medication which was noted by the World Health Organisation as harmful in 1989. Mefloquine has also been linked to suicides and murder-suicides, most notably at Fort Bragg in 2002. It is rarely used these days. It is a medication that the Armed Forces of many countries wish they had never used.

Some from the Company Group may be dead from their mefloquine exposure. Some, like me, are permanently damaged. Many would not have experienced any symptoms and would wonder what all the fuss is about.

At the very least the men of my Company Group assigned to the opening phases of Operation Baritone deserve to be told they were exposed to mefloquine.

For your review and consideration.